By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

We have arrived at the grand finale of the 2022-23 season! The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have earned the right to compete in the TOUR Championship which is held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. This tournament has some unique scoring rules that you must be aware of before you go building lineups or making bets for this week. Golfers are assigned a predetermined starting score based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings. For example, for a second consecutive year, Scottie Scheffler is first in the standings and will begin this tournament with a 10-under score. The further down in the standings someone is, the closer to par their starting score will be to begin the tournament. Golfers who are seeded 26th-30th will be the only players who will begin the tournament at even par. This is the reason why DFS salaries may look noticeably different to you this week. The full list of starting scores for all 30 players is shown in the linked tweet below.

I will also link the FEC standings and playoff rules below. This will be another no-cut event so, barring a withdrawal or disqualification, all golfers will play four rounds.

Who will be crowned the 2022-23 PGA Champion and capture the $18 million payday? We’ll soon find out!

FedEx Cup Standings

FedEx Cup Rules Explained

The Course Preview ⛳

East Lake Golf Club

Par 70 | 7,346 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

East Lake Golf Club is a Par 70 course that extends a lengthy 7,300-7,400 yards, depending on pin placement. The course features Bermuda-grass greens, Bermuda-grass rough, and bouncy Zoysia-grass fairways. It was re-designed by the famed Donald Ross in 1913 with further renovations being made by Rees Jones in 1995 and 2008. Other well-known Ross-designed courses include Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), Pinehurst No. 2 (three-time US Open host course), Aronimink Golf Club (2018 BMW Championship), Oak Hill County Club (host course of several PGA Championships & US Opens), along with many others.

We’ll have plenty of course history for many golfers in the field this week since East Lake has hosted the TOUR Championship every year dating back to 2004. In the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 28th, 30th, 24th, 14th, and 24th. So, overall, this course tends to play slightly on the more difficult side of things. Since moving to the new scoring format where the top players in the FedEx Cup standings begin the week with a stroke advantage, winning scores have landed between 18-under (2019) and 21-under (2020, 2021, 2022). However, before the updated championship format was put in place, winning scores typically landed around 12-under par. This gives you an idea of what sort of scores the golfers starting near, or at, even par will have to put up this week.

The tree-lined fairways at East Lake are a bit narrow and contain large fairway bunkers that guard the preferred landing zones. The Bermuda grass greens are East Lake’s primary defense. They are heavily bunkered, particularly towards the front, and will be set up to run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter). Even though, overall, these greens average around 6,300 sq/ft, which is right around the Tour average, some of the greens are large and multi-tiered with plenty of slope, while others are smaller and carry more back-to-front slope without tiered sections. Accurate iron play and a hot putter are essential every week, but even more so out at East Lake.

TOUR Championship DFS Strategy ✍️ 

DFS strategy for this event is going to be a bit different than most weeks. With only 30 players to choose from, no matter who you draft, you’re rostering 20% of the entire field within every lineup. If you utilize 100% of your salary in a lineup, it is almost guaranteed to be duplicated in any large field GPP (and nobody likes splitting money). The obvious way to avoid this is to leave some salary on the table – a couple of hundred bucks at least. The perfect DFS lineups from last year’s 2022 TOUR Championship, which had the same unique scoring structure, are pictured below, and, as you can see, on DraftKings, there was $1000 of “dead” salary and $3,600 left over on FanDuel.

The other aspect that makes strategizing around this tournament unique is of course the fact that golfers are starting with different scores from the get-go. Unless you’re taking the front-runners like Scottie Scheffler (-10), Viktor Hovland (-8), or Rory McIlroy (-7), the golfers you select will need to have some birdie-scoring upside and be capable of making an emphatic jump up the leaderboard to grab those valuable placement bonus points. Last year at the TOUR Championship, Tom Hoge was priced at $5,000 on DK and $7,000 on FD. Hoge began the week at T-23 with a 1-under tournament starting score (since he was 21st-25th in the championship seeding). He went on to finish in 10th place with a 14-under score and was essentially a major key punt play that unlocked the door to winning GPPs that week. Someone from that range may not necessarily climb the leaderboard as far this year, but that’s the kind of DFS play we need to try to locate in the lower salary ranges.

Also, in general, I wouldn’t be afraid to “plant my flag” on a particular golfer or two and go all-in on them with 100% exposure. Most weeks that won’t necessarily be a great strategy but so many of these guys are going to possess insanely high ownership. Going 100% on someone will put you above the field and give you leverage if that golfer performs well. I also don’t plan on risking too much of my bankroll on this event considering how volatile the format is versus how small the field is. You can go as light or as heavy as you’d prefer, but personally, I’ll be risking about 10% of my bankroll on this event with a small betting card as well. Mostly, I’ll just be looking forward to watching the actual tournament while rooting on my guys.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Tee times are very condensed this week with only 30 golfers in the field so, since there is also no cut to worry about, weather should not factor into any DFS decision-making. Regardless, aside from some scorching temperatures, the forecast will provide mostly hassle-free golf weather with hardly any significant winds at all.

TOUR Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

TOUR Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting six golfers who should be on your radar for the Open Championship.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $13k, FD: $12k

Odds: 3.5/1 | Starting Score: -7

Overall Model Rank: #2

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: Ball Striking, 2nd SG: ATG, 4th Par 4 AVG

Rory starts the week three shots back from the lead but the fact that he owns +350 odds to win is telling of just how strong his form is entering the week. Not only does McIlroy have nine consecutive top-10 finishes, but he’s gone on to win the TOUR Championship at East Lake twice in the last four years (since the PGA moved to the new scoring format) and three times overall. He has averaged an 8th place finish in eight starts at East Lake and is coming off of a BMW Championship performance where he gained strokes across the board, and led the field with +5.01 SG: Around the Greens. Rory should be in “attack mode” from the get-go and he’ll be the top golfer that Scottie Scheffler (+150) will have to worry about staving off.

Max Homa | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 25/1 | Starting Score: -4

Overall Model Rank: #5

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd: SG: Putt, 6th BoB%, 9th Par 4 AVG

There is a steep drop off in odds to win once you get past the top four golfers (Scheffler, Rory, Hovland, Rahm) but Homa’s game is rounding back into form at the right time. Homa has improved upon his finish in the previous start in seven consecutive events and, as he put on display last Friday when he fired a round of 62, he is a guy who can surge up the leaderboard with a very low round or two. He also showcased that he can make a major jump in this format at his East Lake debut last season when he began the week with a 2-under score (T-16) and went on to finish the week at 17-under (T-5), landing him in the perfect lineup on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Homa started the 2022 TOUR Championship with a disappointing opening round of 71 (+1) but went on to post scores of 62 (-8), 66 (-4), and 66 (-4) over the final three rounds. He’ll get a better starting score in his second stab at East Lake and he deserves to be a top DFS target on the week.

Brian Harman | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 35/1 | Starting Score: -4

Overall Model Rank: #12

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 4th Par 4 AVG, 8th SG: Putt, 21st SG: ATG

Harman is another golfer who surged up the FedEx Cup standings down the stretch, earning five top-12 finishes within his last six starts, including the dominant Open Championship win across the pond. He won’t be a guy who can overpower this course since he is one of the shortest drivers in the field, but he’s going to hit a ton of fairways and should continue to excel with the flat stick (1.49 putts per green over the last month, ranks 1st in the field). Also, while they didn’t make the key stats for the week, Harman is one of the best scramblers (ranks 1st in the field in scrambling) on the PGA Tour and he’s also excellent out of the bunker (1st in Sand Save%) and does a great job of avoiding bogeys (2nd in Bogey Avoidance). Given his current form, he could certainly be a golfer who could climb the leaderboard across four rounds. While he is priced appropriately on DraftKings at $9,500 (10th most expensive golfer), Harman does seem like a misprice on FanDuel at $8,800 (20th most expensive golfer).

Russell Henley | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k

Odds: 80/1 | Starting Score: -3

Overall Model Rank: #20

Key Stats Only Rank: #20

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 6th SG: ATG, 9th Par 4 AVG, 20th SG: Ball Striking

He may not rate out exceptionally well in any season-long DFS models in this stacked field, but Henley brings some excellent form into the week with finishes of 8th, 6th, and 2nd in his last three starts and nine top-20s in his last dozen starts. Outside of a slightly negative putter (lost 0.28 strokes), Henley gained strokes everywhere else at the BMW Championship last week, including +4.18 SG: ATG, which was second to only Rory. Much like the aforementioned Brian Harman, Henley isn’t the type of golfer that is going to overpower East Lake, ranking last in the field in driving distance. However, he will be the odds-on favorite to hit more fairways than anyone (1st in Driving Accuracy) and he can throw some darts with his irons (2nd in Proximity). If his putter gets going, he’ll be a guy who can make a serious jump up the leaderboard. Henley has only played at East Lake twice in his career, in 2017 and 2014; both appearances came before the new format changes were implemented. Henley impressed with a 3rd-place TOUR Championship finish in 2017 and a respectable 12th-place finish in 2014, so we know this is a track that can fit his game.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $6.9k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 200/1 | Starting Score: Even

Overall Model Rank: #9

Key Stats Only Rank: #7

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: Putt, 9th SG: Ball Striking, 9th Par 4 AVG

FanDuel took a much different approach to DFS pricing with some golfers than DraftKings, so this play is better suited for the latter platform. When you get down to the golfers who are going to start the week at, or near, even par, you really just want golfers who can provide top-10 upside. Hatton has a solid chance to do that this week and possesses +275 odds for a top-10 finish (via Bovada). He hasn’t been extremely sharp in the two previous playoff events, finishing T-34 and T-43, but he’s racked up seven top-10s in 19 PGA Tour starts this season while missing just one cut. Of course, there is no cut this week but that does speak to Hatton’s consistency on the year. Hatton is somewhat infamous for his hot temper which is often put on display following a bad shot. But he should enter this event with a low-pressure “nothing to lose” mentality. If his ball striking gets back on track, he could be poised for a significant jump up the leaderboard. His lone appearance at East Lake came in 2020 and resulted in a 7th-place finish.

Adam Schenk | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7.1k

Odds: 750/1 | Starting Score: -1

Overall Model Rank: #29

Key Stats Only Rank: #30

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 13th SG: Putt, 23rd SG: ATG, 26th Par 4 AVG

There is not much to love about Schenk on paper but what he has lacked in impressive stats and consistency this season, he has made up for with some huge ceiling performances down the stretch. Within his last 10 starts, Schenk has posted five finishes of T-7th or better. There have been some missed cuts along the way but that’s of no concern this week. A golfer doesn’t crack the top 30 of the FedEx Cup standings and earn their way into the TOUR Championship by mistake and Schenk has certainly played well enough at times to hang with talented fields this season. He’s just above the minimum salary on both sites and will have a “free” birdie baked into his one-under score to begin the tournament.

Other Golfers to Consider

Viktor Hovland | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12k

Odds: 5/1 | Starting Score: -8

Overall Model Rank: #4

Key Stats Only Rank: #5

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 3rd Par 4 AVG, 4th BoB%, 5th SG: Ball Striking

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $10.8k, FD: $12.2k

Odds: 20/1 | Starting Score: -4

Overall Model Rank: #3

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd Par 4 AVG, 2nd BoB%, 4th SG: Ball Striking

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $8.8k, FD: $11.1k

Odds: 55/1 | Starting Score: -3

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #16

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 3rd SG: ATG, 6th SG: Putt, 16th SG: Ball Striking

Corey Conners | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k

Odds: 150/1 | Starting Score: -2

Overall Model Rank: #13

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 7th SG: Ball Striking, 15th Par 4 AVG, 18th BoB%

Sepp Straka | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 600/1 | Starting Score: Even

Overall Model Rank: #22

Key Stats Only Rank: #26

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 19th SG: Putt, 21st SG: Ball Striking, 22nd BoB%

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.