By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The world’s best golfers head to historic Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York, for the 126th edition of the U.S. Open. As is always the case for our national championship, the 156-man field is loaded with talent. According to the DataGolf Rankings, 49 of the top 50 golfers in the world and 76 of the top 100 are set to tee it up this week. The U.S. Open also welcomes a wide range of qualifiers, amateurs, and international players who earned their way into the field through one of the most grueling qualification processes in professional sports. That blend of superstars, journeymen, rising talents, and dreamers is part of what makes this tournament so special every year.

The U.S. Open has a reputation for producing some of the toughest tests in golf, and Shinnecock Hills is certainly capable of living up to that billing. The unique cut rule remains in effect this week, with only the top 60 golfers (and ties) advancing to weekend play after 36 holes. For DFS purposes, that means getting all six golfers through the cut could prove even more difficult than usual. Major championships consistently provide some of the best storylines in sports, and with Shinnecock Hills returning to center stage, we should be in for another unforgettable week of golf. Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club | Southampton, NY 📍

Par 70 | 7,440 Yards

Greens: Poa Annua (Bentgrass Overseed)

U.S. Open Winning Scores at Shinnecock Hills:

Brooks Koepka (+1) – 2018

Retief Goosen (-4) – 2004

Corey Pavin (E) – 1995

Raymond Floyd (-1) – 1986

Shinnecock Hills is one of the most iconic and demanding venues in championship golf. While many U.S. Open host sites rely on narrow fairways and claustrophobic driving corridors as their primary defense, Shinnecock takes a different approach. The fairways here are relatively generous by U.S. Open standards, but that doesn't mean golfers can simply swing away. Thick rough, native fescue, over 150 bunkers, firm conditions, and ever-present winds off the Atlantic create a course that can quickly punish even minor mistakes. At over 7,400 yards as a Par 70, Shinnecock has plenty of length as well, with seven Par 4s measuring at least 470 yards and only two Par 5s available as realistic scoring opportunities.

Although this course is often described as a links-style layout, it is better categorized as an inland course with links influences. The property is extremely exposed, featuring rolling terrain, significant elevation changes, firm fairways, and very few trees. Wind can become a major factor at any time, and it often has a substantial impact on both scoring conditions and course difficulty. Players will frequently be forced to hit long irons into elevated greens while simultaneously managing difficult lies, awkward stances, and changing wind directions. The result is a venue that places a premium on complete tee-to-green play rather than relying on one specific skill set.

The greens are where Shinnecock Hills truly separates itself from most major championship venues. They are relatively small, heavily contoured, and surrounded by severe runoffs that place enormous pressure on both approach play and scrambling. Missing greens in the wrong spots can quickly turn pars into bogeys and bogeys into doubles. Because of that, precise iron play remains the most important skill this week. Golfers who consistently find the correct sections of these greens can avoid many of the short-game disasters that await the rest of the field. Long-iron proficiency will be especially important, as players will face a steady diet of approach shots from 175+ yards throughout the week.

From a DFS perspective, this is not a tournament where I want to chase volatile birdie-makers or golfers relying on a hot putter. U.S. Opens are often won by players who simply make fewer mistakes than everyone else, and Shinnecock Hills embodies that philosophy as much as any course in the world. I'll be prioritizing elite ball strikers, strong long-iron players, golfers who excel in difficult scoring conditions, and players with the scrambling ability to escape trouble when they inevitably miss a few greens. Patience, discipline, and bogey avoidance should go a long way toward determining who is still standing on Sunday afternoon.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Thursday: The opening round is shaping up to be the biggest challenge of the week, and it’s not particularly close compared to the other rounds. Winds will steadily build throughout the morning before reaching sustained speeds of 20-25 mph by midday and afternoon, accompanied by brutal gusts of 40-55 mph. A few light showers are possible during the morning hours, with a chance for isolated afternoon downpours, but precipitation is a secondary concern compared to the wind. Very early tee times may catch a brief window of more manageable conditions, while late-afternoon groups could benefit from winds gradually easing toward the end of their rounds. Unfortunately, most of the field will be forced to endure extremely difficult conditions at some point on Thursday.

Friday: Conditions improve significantly for Round 2, though golfers won't be completely off the hook. Sustained winds should generally sit in the 10-15 mph range throughout the day with slightly stronger gusts, especially in the early morning hours. That's still enough wind to influence scoring, but it's a dramatic step down from the chaos expected on Thursday.

Weekend: Saturday looks breezy once again, with sustained winds in the 15-20 mph range and gusts approaching 30 mph during portions of the day. Sunday currently appears to be the most favorable scoring day of the tournament, with winds generally ranging from 10-15 mph and only slightly higher gusts. Even then, Shinnecock Hills rarely plays easy, especially if the USGA allows the course to firm up over the weekend.

⚖️Weather Verdict: There appears to be a slight edge toward the Thursday AM/Friday PM draw, but not enough for me to make aggressive roster decisions based solely on wave splits. The bigger takeaway is that Thursday could be one of the most difficult scoring days we'll see all season. Golfers who survive Round 1 near even par may find themselves in outstanding position heading into the weekend, especially if the forecast holds and conditions become progressively more manageable as the tournament unfolds.

U.S. Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. SG: Approach | 30%

2. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

3. SG: Tee-to-Green | 20%

4. SG: Around the Green | 15%

5. Proximity: 175-200+ Yards | 10%

6. SG: Putting | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Why these stats?

• SG: Approach (30%) – Approach play is the most important skill at Shinnecock Hills. The small, heavily contoured greens place a premium on precision iron play, and golfers who consistently find the correct sections of these putting surfaces can avoid the difficult up-and-down situations that often lead to bogeys or worse. With numerous lengthy Par 4s on the card, strong long-iron play should be especially valuable.

• Bogey Avoidance (20%) – U.S. Opens are often won by the players who make the fewest mistakes rather than the most birdies. With thick rough, difficult green complexes, and significant wind expected throughout the week, limiting bogeys and avoiding the occasional big number should be one of the biggest keys to success.

• SG: Tee-to-Green (20%) – Shinnecock demands complete golfers. Players must drive it well enough to stay out of the punishing fescue, hit quality approach shots into firm greens, and recover effectively when they inevitably miss targets. This statistic captures the all-around ball-striking profile that has traditionally thrived at U.S. Open venues.

• SG: Around the Green (15%) – This statistic receives a bump due to both the course setup and the forecast. Even elite ball strikers are likely to miss plenty of greens this week, especially if Thursday's projected wind gusts materialize. Players who can consistently scramble for par and avoid turning missed greens into bogeys should have a noticeable edge.

• Proximity: 175-200+ Yards (10%) – Several of Shinnecock's toughest holes require long-iron approaches, particularly on the lengthy Par 4s. Golfers who consistently gain strokes from these distances should be better equipped to handle one of the strongest long-iron tests they'll face all season.

• SG: Putting (5%) – Putting is rarely the primary focus entering a U.S. Open, but surviving Shinnecock's fast Poa Annua surfaces will still require patience and consistency. Avoiding costly three-putts can be just as important as converting birdie opportunities, particularly when scoring conditions become difficult.

U.S. Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Course Fit / Key Stats Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

126th U.S. Open DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter/X @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.