By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The season’s final Major is upon us as the 151st Open Championship is just hours away from teeing off! This year’s Open Championship (aka “The British Open”) will be held at Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England and we’ll get to see all of the big names in the golf world battle it out across the pond. The 156-player field will boast the absolute best talent that the game has to offer – 49 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world will be in attendance. Plenty of other top 100 ranked golfers will be in the mix along with some top DPWT players, 16 LIV Golf competitors, several past champions, and a few qualifying amateurs. After 36 holes, the top 70 (including ties) will make the cut and move on to play the weekend.

Keep in mind that this event is in England, so play will begin and lineups will lock soon after midnight at 1:35 am ET on Thursday, July 20th. As is the case with all Major events, DFS pricing is soft on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Generally speaking, a balanced lineup is often ideal for cash games but anything goes for GPPs. If you’re new to PGA DFS, I wouldn’t recommend getting too cute with “punting” a ton of super low-priced guys. With that said, some cheaper golfers will carry some appeal, some of which we’ll discuss a bit further down in this newsletter. Majors are set up to provide the most challenging tests that professional golfers see all year and the cream always rises to the top. A few lesser-known players will certainly surprise on the final leaderboard, but well-known and vetted pros will far outnumber them.

The Course Preview ⛳

Royal Liverpool

Par 71 | 7,383 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa/Fescue

Royal Liverpool was founded in 1869 and was redesigned by famous course architect Harry Colt in the early 1900s. The course has since undergone several renovations and rerouting, primarily as a response to the more modern equipment that golfers have at their disposal. Royal Liverpool most recently hosted the Open Championship in 2014 when Rory McIlroy won with a score of 17-under. Prior to that, Tiger Woods won here in 2006 with an 18-under score. Before the 2006 Open Championship, Royal Liverpool had not hosted this event since 1967.

Royal Liverpool is a shorter Par 71 with a scorecard length of just under 7,400 yards. One thing that will immediately stand out about this course is how leveled out it is. The fairways and greens are just exceedingly flat with very little undulation. So a shorter Par 71 that’s also flat. You may wonder where the challenge lies. Well, Royal Liverpool certainly has a few tricks up its sleeve.

First off, the course sits on the coastline right beside the Irish Sea, so you can rest assured that impactful winds will come into play throughout the week. In many areas, the fairways are also narrower compared to past Open Championships and there are a slew of sharp doglegged holes. Knee-high to waist-high fescue will also border many of the fairways so slight misses may result in highly difficult second shots. There are also “internal” out of bounds areas that will come into play on six holes, which is a unique characteristic in itself. Many of the green complexes are small and will require pinpoint accuracy. Many greens will also feature runoff areas that could bleed shots into the surrounding hazards, namely into the pot bunkers, of which there are many scattered throughout the fairways and around the greens.

Of course, that isn’t to say that this is a supremely treacherous golf course; after all, Rory and Tiger posted those fairly low winning scores in the high teens under par in their respective Open victories at Royal Liverpool. Also, the general consensus from competitors who played here in those 2006 and 2014 tournaments is that the course is playing softer this week than it did in either of those years. A couple of the Par 5s will be prime scoring holes and there are two shorter Par 4s well under 400 yards that may even be drivable by some golfers in this field. The Par 3s will present a challenge, three of which are around or over 200 yards. The one that isn’t is the 136-yard Par 3, 17th which will be a hole that draws plenty of TV coverage and should play a significant role in leaderboard changes during the final stretch on Sunday. A common comparison for that Par 3, nicknamed “Little Eye,” is with the “Island Green” Par 3, 17th at TPC Sawgrass (The PLAYERS). Little Eye is a completely different type of Par 3 from the Island Green, but it should have a major impact on this tournament. A slight miss on that hole will result in a ton of momentum-swinging bogeys.

In general, to find success at Royal Liverpool, golfers will need to be in top ball striking form while implementing some crafty play around the greens. The 100-150 yard range should be a common approach distance this week as well, so having a strong wedge game will be a nice boost. Outside of that, we’ll look at fairly common metrics like Par 4 scoring, Par 5 scoring, and birdie or better percentage while placing a slight weight on golfers with a reliable putter. The night owls and early risers will certainly enjoy a fun week of golf ahead. Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

• Thursday AM: 10-15 mph winds. Chance for some light morning rain.

• Thursday PM: Similar to the A.M. with 10-15 mph winds but gusts aren’t expected to be much more than that.

• Friday AM: Winds around 15 mph with no significant gusts. Chance for some light rain.

• Friday PM: 15 mph sustained winds with gusts inching toward 20 mph.

• Weekend: Saturday gets interesting with winds around 15 mph and gusts picking up to 25+ mph, primarily around midday and into the afternoon hours. Rain is also looking likely throughout the Saturday round. Calmer overall conditions come around on Sunday, but still a bit gusty at times (15-20 mph).

⚖️ Weather Verdict: We can’t pinpoint any major tee time advantage this week but, if we’re really putting things under a microscope, I suppose a very, very slight nudge could go in the direction of the PM/AM golfers since they’ll avoid the worst of the gusts on that Friday afternoon and may also play a softer, more receptive course if those light rains come through in the morning. But this edge is borderline negligible so don’t go making any significant DFS decisions based on the current weather forecast. Be sure to run a final forecast check on Wednesday evening in case of any notable changes.

151st Open Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

> Emphasis on Proximity from 100-150 Yards | 10%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

4. Par 4 Average | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind that roughly half of the field will not have enough (or any) PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data, so the stat models won’t exactly paint the full picture this week.

151st Open Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting twelve golfers who should be on your radar for the Open Championship.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $12.5k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 8/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

Scheffler once again leads off this section of spotlighted golfers to the surprise of absolutely no one. Following his 3rd place finish at last week’s Scottish Open, Scheffler now has an absurd seven consecutive top-five finishes, and (sorry, it must continue to be mentioned) he still hasn’t finished worse than T-12th since last October, 19 starts ago. At this point, Scheffler feels like nearly an automatic top-five every week he tees it up and, at worst, top-10, which is a ridiculous thing to ever say about any golfer besides Tiger Woods in his prime. He led the field with +11.79 SG: Ball Striking last week and, were it not for losing a couple of strokes putting, Scheffler likely would have pushed Rory for the win. Scheffler is not known for his putter which, for the rest of any field competing against him, is probably a good thing since that’s essentially the only part of his game preventing him from winning just about every week. Scheffler is still the No. 1 ranked golfer in the world, which just so happens to be where Rory and Tiger stood in the world golf rankings in their respective victories at Royal Liverpool in 2014 and 2006. The ball striking is going to be there for Scheff and he boasts some of the best around the green play in the world as well. If he simply has a slightly positive or even a neutral week with the flat stick, this could be his Open Championship to lose.

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k

Odds: 12/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #8

Like everyone else on the planet, I’m all about spending up on some Scottie Scheffler basically any week given his current form, and Rory McIlroy will command plenty of consideration as well, fresh on the heels of his Scottish Open victory last week, which marked his sixth consecutive top-10 finish. But the gravity that those two premiere players will command, ownership-wise, leaves Jon Rahm likely flying under the radar. A low-owned Jon Rahm is enough to make any DFS player’s eyebrows raise with intrigue. We haven’t seen Rahm tee it up since his missed cut at the Travelers Championship a month ago and, by his standards, he wasn’t in the best form heading into that week. However, the time off may be just what Rahm needs to get back on track to his normal, dominant self. Rahm is the only player in this field who has multiple Major victories within the last three seasons (‘23 Masters & ‘21 U.S. Open). In that span, he’s made 11-of-11 cuts at Majors with six top-10 finishes. He fits the golfer profile that we’ll want at Royal Liverpool and we should expect him to be right in the thick of things atop the leaderboard come Sunday.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.8k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

There is absolutely no reason to ever count out a healthy Brooks Koepka in any Major, ever. He has posted 18 top-10s, 14 top-fives, and five outright victories in 37 career Major events and, this season in Majors, he has recorded a win at the PGA Championship, a runner-up at the Masters, and, most recently, a respectable T-17 finish at the U.S. Open. His recent British Open track record is about as strong as anyone in the field, with four top-10s in his last six events. Koepka has posted a 17th-place finish and a 3rd-place result in two LIV Golf events since his U.S. Open appearance. He has the sort of long and straight ball flight that should play well at a course like Royal Liverpool and Koepka will be poised for another strong showing in the spotlight of a Major Championship event.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #5

Hatton is a well-known hothead on the PGA Tour but lately, he’s been staying out of his own way which has allowed his game to do the talking. He has ripped off six top-15 (four top-six) finishes within his last seven starts with the only outlier being a still-rock-solid T-27 at the U.S. Open. He’s gained strokes off the tee in 10 consecutive tournaments, his wedges have been his best irons, and he carries one of the more reliable putters on the PGA Tour (5th in SG: Putting). Within Hatton’s last three British Open starts, he has an 11th-place finish (2022) and a 6th-place finish (2019). Long and straight should play well on this course and that’s exactly how Hatton hits it. It feels like we should continue to strike on Hatton while the iron’s hot and look for him to continue playing some of the best golf of his career on the Englishman’s home turf.

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.7k

Odds: 22/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #12

Much like Hatton, Fleetwood should be another crowd favorite as he competes in front of his fellow Englishmen this week and he has the form to vie for that ever-elusive victory. Following a 6th place showing at the Scottish Open, where he gained strokes across the board, Fleetwood now has three top-six finishes in his last four starts. He has also found ample success in British Opens over the last five years, with finishes of (starting in 2022) 4th, 33rd, 2nd, 12th, and 27th. The average OWGR of Open Championship winners over the last 15 years has been 24th (courtesy of Tour Junkies for that info). Fleetwood heads into this week as the 21st-ranked golfer in the world.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.5k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #12

Overall Model Rank: #14

It feels as if the mid-range will be the most neglected range this week with most choosing to favor more of a “stars and scrubs” approach but there are plenty of golfers in this tier that should not go overlooked. We saw Wyndham Clark hang with, and conquer, the best of ‘em on one of the largest stages in golf during his victory at the U.S. Open last month. That U.S. Open victory was Clark’s second win of the season (Wells Fargo Champ.) and he has now made the cut in 19 of his last 20 events. He’ll once again carry one of the biggest drivers in the field and, as long as he avoids trouble on most of his big drives, he’s a guy who we can look to compete at a high level. The threat of Clark landing in that deep fescue grass or one of those OB zones fairly often, along with his relative inexperience in British Opens, will be the only factors that keep Clark out of cash game consideration for me this week.

Talor Gooch | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 70/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

I can’t pretend like I actually tune into the LIV Golf tournaments, but Talor Gooch has been an absolute menace over there with three victories in his last six LIV starts. He had a poor showing at the PGA Championship, missing the +5 cutline by five strokes, but he did put up a respectable T-34 at the Masters earlier this year. Gooch has also found some solid success at British Opens in the last two years with a 34th in 2022 and 33rd in 2021. He’s far from a safe play but, much like most of the DPWT golfers, many of the LIV Golf guys will go under-owned due to being “out of sight, out of mind” and it’s nice to know that Gooch has been finding his way into the winner’s circle this year, even if it’s LIV Golf tournaments we’re talking about.

Brian Harman | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k

Odds: 110/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #36

Overall Model Rank: #20

While I do question whether Brian Harman will have the right amount of distance to compete here, some of those concerns are quieted thanks to the 26th-place finish he was able to secure at Royal Liverpool back in the 2014 Open Championship. Harman has been a streaky golfer this season but he’s found some form in recent weeks -- over his previous three starts, he has come away with a T-12 at last week’s Scottish Open, a T-9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and a T-2 at the Travelers Championship. Harman has also come up big in his last two Open Championships with a 6th-place finish last year and a 19th-place finish in 2021. In this price range, we’re really just hunting for top 25 upside and Harman will have that potential this week. He’s looking like a particularly enticing value play on FanDuel where his $8,000 salary makes him the 73rd most expensive golfer in the field.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9k

Odds: 110/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Oosty has been out of the PGA limelight since joining LIV Golf but he is flashing some nice form over there with a pair of top-six finishes within his last three LIV starts. His game typically meshes well with the type of host courses for British Opens. Before missing the cut on the number at last year’s British Open, Oosthuizen finished 3rd, 20th, and 28th in the three years prior at this tournament.

Robert MacIntyre | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 60/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Bobby Mac is going to be one of the more popular “punt” plays thanks to a runner-up finish to Rory at last week’s Scottish Open. Since DFS salaries are typically released early for Majors, MacIntyre’s salaries for this week are not reflective of his 60/1 odds to win. Golfers with similar odds to win are noticeably more expensive than MacIntyre -- guys like Min Woo Lee (60/1), Justin Thomas (70/1), Tony Finau (70/1), and Cameron Young (70/1). MacIntyre gained strokes across the board last week, including +5.68 SG: Ball Striking, +2.29 SG: ATG, and +5.21 SG: Putting. That putting performance probably isn’t repeatable but MacIntyre was in solid form over on the DPWT heading into last week and he’s played very well at the Open Championship over the last three years with finishes of 34th, 8th, and 6th. He’ll be a go-to addition in “stars and scrubs” builds but there is probably some merit in lowering exposure to him (or outright fading) in GPPs.

Jordan L. Smith | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k

Odds: 225/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Smith was a DPWT golfer we had our eye on at the Scottish Open and it paid off well by way of a T-12 finish after shooting all four rounds under 70. Smith possesses reliable ball striking which has translated to plenty of made cuts and top 25 finishes. He has made 10 of his last 12 cuts worldwide which features seven top 25 finishes during that span, including a T-20 at this last month’s U.S. Open. As mentioned last week, the putter is the main source of concern but he was able to be mostly neutral with the flat stick last week, losing only 0.32 strokes putting to the field. If he can remain a neutral, or slightly positive, putter this week, the rest of his game should easily lead to a made cut with further top 25 upside.

Marcel Siem | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.8k

Odds: 500/1 | Punt Play (DK Preferred)

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

If you’re on DraftKings, you’ve probably noticed the expanded price range this week which has dropped the minimum salary to $5,500 as opposed to the usual $6,000. As you would expect, all of these sub-$6k guys are nothing more than extreme dart throws but Siem is the one sub-$6k golfer who sticks out the most. He has made 12-of-14 cuts over on the DPWT, including a win at the Indian Hero Open back in February. Siem notched a T-10 two weeks ago at the Made in Himmerland and played well enough at the Scottish Open to make the cut and finish T-42 (alongside Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele) in what was a respectable field that featured plenty of PGA talent. The flat stick is his primary weapon as he ranks 3rd in the DPWT in SG: Putting. He has averaged 306.8 yards per drive on the DPWT and, while his iron play isn’t typically his strong suit, he did gain +2.70 strokes on approach last week. Siem’s last Open Championship appearance came in 2021 when he finished in 15th place -- although it’d be amazing, we can’t expect a similar result this week. But if he simply gets past the cutline and makes a little noise on the weekend, he’ll certainly open up the door to some interesting “stars and scrubs” lineup builds (primarily on DraftKings).

151st Open Championship DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

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That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.