By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

We have arrived at the grand finale of the 2024 season! The top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings have earned the right to compete in the TOUR Championship which is held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. This tournament has some unique scoring rules that you must be aware of before you begin building lineups or making bets for this week. Golfers are assigned predetermined starting strokes based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings. For example, for a third consecutive year, Scottie Scheffler is first in the standings and will begin this tournament atop the leaderboard with a 10-under score. The further down in the standings someone is, the closer to par their starting score will be to begin the tournament. Golfers who are seeded 26th-30th will be the only players who will begin the tournament at even par. This is the reason why DFS salaries may look a little different to you this week. The full list of starting scores for all 30 players is shown in the linked tweet below.

This will be another no-cut event so, barring a withdrawal or disqualification, all golfers will play four rounds. Who will be crowned the 2024 PGA Champion and capture the $25 million payday? We’ll soon find out!

The Course Preview ⛳

East Lake Golf Club

Par 71 | 7,490 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

East Lake Golf Club is a Par 71 course that extends nearly 7,500  yards, depending on pin placement. The course features Bermuda-grass greens, Bermuda-grass rough, and bouncy Zoysia-grass fairways. It was re-designed by the famed Donald Ross in 1913 with further renovations being made by Rees Jones in 1995 and 2008. Yet another renovation occurred last off-season, which we’ll get into in further detail below. Other well-known Ross-designed courses include Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), Pinehurst No. 2 (three-time US Open host course), Aronimink Golf Club (2018 BMW Championship), Oak Hill Country Club (host course of several PGA Championships & US Opens), along with many others.

The most recent renovation added length in certain spots and “jazzed up” a few holes on a course that many considered was becoming a little too predictable and stale. The former Par 4 No. 14 hole was lengthened and will now play as a 580-yard Par 5. As a result, East Lake GC, which previously played as a Par 70, now checks in as a Par 71. Other renovations include shortening the Par 4 No. 8, which will now qualify as a “driveable” Par 4. The Par 3 No. 9, which was already a long, intimidating shot over water, was lengthened even further and it will now play at over 250 yards.

So, while East Lake GC did undergo a bit of a facelift, we’ll have plenty of course history for many golfers in the field this week since this course has hosted the TOUR Championship every year dating back to 2004. In the last five years, in terms of difficulty, this course has ranked 33rd, 28th, 30th, 24th, and 14th. So, overall, this course has had the tendency to play as a slightly neutral course, in terms of difficulty, but it remains to be seen how the renovations will change that. Since moving to the new scoring format where the top players in the FedEx Cup standings begin the week with a stroke advantage, winning scores have been anywhere from 18-under (2019), 21-under (2020, 2021, 2022), and a scorching 27-under (2023), achieved by Viktor Hovland who began the week at 8-under par since he was 2nd in the FedEx Cup Standings at the time. However, before the updated championship format was put in place, winning scores typically landed around 12-under par. This gives you an idea of what sort of scores the golfers starting near, or at, even par will have to put up this week if they hope to make a significant surge up the leaderboard.

The tree-lined fairways at East Lake are a bit narrow and contain large fairway bunkers that guard the preferred landing zones. The Bermuda grass greens have historically been East Lake’s primary defense. They are heavily bunkered, particularly towards the front, and will be set up to run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter). Even though, overall, these greens average around 6,300 sq/ft, which is right around the Tour average, some of the greens are large and multi-tiered with plenty of slope, while others are smaller and carry more back-to-front slope without tiered sections. Accurate iron play and a hot putter are essential every week, but even more so out at East Lake.

TOUR Championship DFS Strategy ✍️

DFS strategy for this event is going to be a bit different than most weeks. With only 30 players to choose from, no matter who you draft, you’re rostering 20% of the entire field within every lineup. If you utilize 100% of your salary in a lineup, it is almost guaranteed to be duplicated in any large field GPP (and nobody likes splitting money). The obvious way to avoid this is to leave some salary on the table – a couple of hundred bucks at least. The perfect DFS lineups from last year’s 2023 TOUR Championship, which had the same unique scoring structure, are pictured below. It was a bit of an outlier when compared to previous seasons, but there was still $400 worth of “dead” salary in the perfect DraftKings lineup, meanwhile, the perfect FanDuel lineup had $1,300 left on the table.

The other aspect that makes strategizing around this tournament unique is of course the fact that golfers are starting with different scores from the get-go. Unless you’re taking the front-runners like Scottie Scheffler (-10), Xander Schauffele (-8), or Hideki Matsuyama (-7), the golfers you select will need to have some major birdie-scoring upside and be capable of making an emphatic jump up the leaderboard to grab those valuable placement bonus points. Last year at the TOUR Championship, Sepp Straka was priced at $5,400 on DK and $7,300 on FD. Straka began the week at T-26 with an even-par tournament starting score (since he was 30th in the championship seeding). He went on to finish in 14th place with a 9-under score and was essentially a major key punt play that unlocked the door to winning GPPs that week. The same goes for Adam Schenk, who started the week at 1-under and finished in 9th place with a final 10-under score. As you can see above, both Straka and Schenk became optimal plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Someone from that range may not necessarily climb the leaderboard as far this year, but that’s the kind of DFS play we need to try to locate in the lower salary ranges.

Also, in general, I wouldn’t be afraid to “plant my flag” on a particular golfer or two and go all-in on them with 100% exposure. Most weeks that won’t necessarily be a great strategy but so many of these guys are going to possess insanely high ownership. Going 100% on someone will put you above the field and give you leverage if that golfer performs well. I also don’t plan on risking too much of my bankroll on this event considering how volatile the format is versus how small the field is. You can go as light or as heavy as you’d prefer, but personally, I’ll be risking about 10% of my bankroll on this event with a small betting card as well. Mostly, I’ll just be looking forward to watching the actual tournament while rooting on my guys.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Tee times are very condensed this week with only 30 golfers in the field and less than three hours separate the earliest tee time (11:16 AM ET) and the latest (2:00 PM ET). So, since there is also no cut to worry about, weather should not factor into any DFS decision-making. Regardless, aside from some scorching temperatures that will reach well into the 90s, the forecast will provide mostly hassle-free golf weather with hardly any significant winds at all and no major threat of rain.

TOUR Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

6. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

TOUR Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 30 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 30 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

TOUR Championship DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.