By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, where TPC Twin Cities will play host to the 3M Open. This will only be the fifth year that this course and tournament have been on the PGA circuit so the course history will be somewhat limited. The strength of the field does not compare to the one from last week’s Open Championship, but there are still some recognizable names teeing it up this week. In total, 33 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance and there is plenty of rising talent that will be looking to make a splash as well. Do note that the 36-hole cut rule will revert to the usual “top 65 + ties” making it into the weekend. We’re only two weeks out from the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so the 3M Open will represent one of the final chances for golfers to secure valuable FEC points! This is far from a marquee tournament, but it should be a solid event, and if you like birdies, plenty of those are expected over the next few days!

Introducing Trevor Pitzel, LineStar’s New Golf DFS Host…

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 - 7,341 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Cut Line Last 4 Years: +1, -1, -1, -2

Winning Scores Last 4 Years: -17, -15, -19, -21

First Tee: Thursday, July 27th @ 7:45 am ET

This course may be making just its fifth appearance on the PGA Tour but TPC Twin Cities has been on the Champions Tour circuit for quite some time. For the uninformed, that’s the senior’s golf tour and even those older gentlemen can tear up this place – regularly winning with a score of around 20-under. The PGA did add over 250 yards in length to better challenge the PGA caliber players when TPC Twin Cities was added onto the circuit in 2019 but, in ideal conditions, we can expect a winning score to land in the vicinity of 20-under.

That isn’t to say TPC Twin Cities doesn’t have any teeth. It is a lengthier Par 71 set up and there are 72 bunkers to navigate as well as a whopping 27 water hazards which come into play on 13 holes. Since this is a Par 71, there are three Par 5 holes in play. All three of these Par 5s will play just above 590 yards, so any golfer with above-average length off of the tee should have ample opportunity to go low on those holes. In the last three seasons, essentially a third of all birdies scored came from those three Par 5s. Since this course is on the longer side, it is no surprise that 25% of all approach shots come from 200+ yards, so that will be an important approach range to keep in mind. Three of the four Par 3s measure in at over 200 yards, so accurate long iron play will be vital on those holes as well.

Aside from that, I’ll be formulating a basic recipe with the remaining key stats that should correlate well with this course. Those are strokes gained on approach, overall birdie or better percentage, and Par 4 scoring average. I’m also going to emphasize strokes gained off the tee with an emphasis on driving distance. The rough at TPC Twin Cities is very manageable, especially in comparison to last week’s British Open, so wayward drivers won’t be penalized too much. The fairways are also slightly wider than average thus incentivising a “bomb and gouge” approach. The bentgrass greens are multi-tiered, above average in size, and feature very little undulation. When it comes to green speeds, they should run at average to slightly fast speeds (about 12 on the stimpmeter). In general, there just isn’t anything overly challenging about this place as long as the weather stays fairly cooperative. Last year some impactful winds did hamper scoring somewhat, but Tony Finau emerged victorious with a final score of 17-under.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Sustained winds around 10 mph all day with periodic gusts of 15-20 mph. Afternoon temps well into the 90s.

Friday: Calmer overall conditions in the morning picking up to 10-15 mph sustained winds in the afternoon.

Weekend: No real issues expected. Winds should stay under 10 mph most of Saturday and Sunday.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Given the current forecast, the slightest of bumps could probably go to the PM/AM wave but, overall, weather should not have a significant impact on any DFS decision-making.

3M Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Driving Distance | 10%

7. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

3M Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

3M Open DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.