By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

Following another dominant Major victory by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour returns stateside and heads to Blaine, Minnesota, where TPC Twin Cities will play host to the 3M Open. This will be the seventh year that this course and tournament have been on the PGA circuit. As expected, the strength of this field does not compare to last week’s Open Championship, but there are still some recognizable names teeing it up this week. In total, 42 of the world’s top 100-ranked golfers will be in attendance, and there is plenty of rising talent that will be looking to make a splash as well. Do note that the 36-hole cut rule will revert to the standard “top 65 golfers (including ties)” making it into the weekend.

It seems wild to say this already, but the FedEx Cup Playoffs are only two weeks away! So the 3M Open and next week’s Wyndham Championship will represent the final opportunities for golfers to snag some valuable FEC points and secure their place in the playoffs. This is far from a marquee tournament, but it should be a solid event with plenty at stake for a lot of golfers. And if you like birdies, plenty of those are expected over the next few days! Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 | 7,431 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -2, -4, +1, -1, -1

Winning Scores Last 5 Years: -17, -24, -17, -15, -19

First Tee: Thursday, July 24th @ 7:45 am ET

TPC Twin Cities may be making just its seventh appearance on the PGA TOUR, but this track has hosted professional golf for much longer — serving as a staple on the PGA TOUR Champions circuit for nearly two decades. Back when it was part of the senior tour rotation, even the older guys routinely shredded this course with winning scores pushing 20-under. The PGA lengthened the layout by over 250 yards ahead of its TOUR debut in 2019, but the scoring outlook hasn’t shifted much. When the weather cooperates, expect a winning number in the high teens or low 20s under par.

That said, Twin Cities isn’t without its challenges. This is a longer-than-average Par 71, and while the layout is mostly flat and forgiving, the course still features 72 bunkers and a whopping 27 water hazards — with water coming into play on 15 holes. The trio of Par 5s all hover just over 590 yards, so players with decent length off the tee will find ample scoring chances there. Roughly a third of all birdies made at this event have typically come on those three Par 5 holes.

Distance and long iron play are key here. Roughly 25% of all approach shots come from 200+ yards, and three of the four Par 3s stretch beyond 200 yards as well. That makes proficiency with long irons and hybrids a strong prerequisite. The rough here is pretty tame — especially for golfers who were in the field at last week’s grind at the Open — and with slightly wider-than-average fairways, players are encouraged to let it rip. Even the bunkering isn’t much of a deterrent, as most of the fairway traps are positioned in spots that don’t really affect the pros.

The bentgrass greens are large, multi-tiered, and not particularly tricky. They tend to run around 12 on the stimpmeter and hold well, so strong iron play and a hot putter can be a lethal combo. Around-the-green metrics haven’t correlated much with success here in the past, as most contenders do their damage through ball striking and aggressive birdie-or-better rates.

As far as stat modeling goes, I’ll be leaning heavily on SG: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Par 4 Scoring, and SG: OTT with an emphasis on distance. There are birdies to be had at TPC Twin Cities — as long as players keep it dry and don’t let the hazards pile up!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

• Thursday: Softer course in the AM following some Wednesday night rain. Sustained winds maxing out around 10 mph with ~15 mph gusts in the morning. Calmer afternoon conditions with no notable gusts. Mostly sunny and warm for much of the day.

• Friday: Winds at ≤ 5 mph all day with plenty of sunshine and warm temps.

• Weekend: Windier in general, but nothing too treacherous as of now. No significant rain is expected, so the warm and mostly sunny conditions should continue.

⚖️Weather Verdict: If you’re wave stacking, I suppose you could give the slightest of leans to the PM/AM wave as they’ll avoid peak winds on Thursday morning. But it’s a minimal edge at best, and this forecast could also shift a bit. Overall, it’s looking like some great golf weather this week.

3M Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better %| 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Driving Distance | 10%

7. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

3M Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

3M Open DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.