By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

Following Ryan Fox's breakthrough victory at The Open Championship – the first major title of his career – the PGA Tour returns stateside for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. As expected, the strength of the field takes a significant step back after the season's final major, with just 32 of the top 100 golfers in the DataGolf Rankings making the trip this week. That said, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines the field, joined by a mix of established PGA Tour veterans and plenty of golfers still fighting to secure their place in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, which will begin in just three more weeks. The standard PGA Tour cut rule returns this week, with only the top 65 golfers (and ties) advancing to the weekend.

With just three tournaments remaining before the postseason begins, the urgency is beginning to ramp up. Golfers hovering around the playoff bubble have little margin for error, making the 3M Open one of the final opportunities to earn valuable FedEx Cup points. From a DFS perspective, the biggest storyline is undoubtedly Scheffler's eye-popping salary. At $14,900 on DraftKings and $15,800 on FanDuel, he'll almost certainly need to win – and likely do so in runaway fashion in his TPC Twin Cities debut – to justify his price tag and appear as an optimal lineup piece. If he merely contends, balanced roster construction could once again prove to be the sharper approach. Best of luck this week!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 | 7,431 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -5, -2, -4, +1, -1

Winning Scores Last 5 Years: -23, -17, -24, -17, -15

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 40th, 16th, 38th, 14th, 24th

TPC Twin Cities may be making just its eighth appearance as a PGA Tour host, but this course has been a fixture on the professional golf calendar for much longer. Originally designed by Arnold Palmer, the layout hosted PGA Tour Champions events for nearly two decades before undergoing a Tom Lehman-led renovation ahead of its PGA Tour debut in 2019. While the course was lengthened by more than 250 yards to better challenge today's players, it has remained one of the more favorable scoring environments on Tour. When weather conditions cooperate, don't be surprised to see the winning score once again push into the low-20s under par.

That doesn't mean TPC Twin Cities is without teeth. This is a longer-than-average Par 71 that features 72 bunkers and a whopping 27 water hazards, with water coming into play on 15 of the 18 holes. Despite those intimidating numbers, the rest of the layout is relatively forgiving. The fairways are wider than average, the rough is fairly tame, and many of the fairway bunkers rarely come into play for PGA Tour professionals. That combination encourages aggressive play off the tee, even with water lurking throughout the property.

Distance and long-iron play remain two of the biggest keys to success. All three Par 5s measure over 590 yards, while three of the four Par 3s play beyond 200 yards. Roughly a quarter of all approach shots also come from 200-plus yards, placing a premium on golfers who excel with long irons and hybrids. At the same time, the generous fairways allow many players to swing freely with driver, creating shorter approach shots and additional birdie opportunities.

The bentgrass greens are large, receptive, and generally roll around 12 on the Stimpmeter. They also tend to produce above-average GIR percentages, shifting the emphasis toward approach play and putting rather than scrambling. In fact, recent champions have consistently done their damage by gaining significant strokes on approach while pairing it with a hot putter. Around-the-green play simply hasn't been much of a differentiator at TPC Twin Cities.

One of the more fascinating aspects of this course is the contrast between scoring opportunities and penalty strokes. TPC Twin Cities routinely ranks among the Tour leaders in both birdies and water balls, creating plenty of volatility for DFS purposes. Golfers willing to stay aggressive can pile up birdies in a hurry, but one loose swing into the water can erase several holes of good work.

From a DFS perspective, I'll once again be prioritizing elite ball-strikers who can take advantage of the many scoring opportunities this course provides. SG: Approach, Birdie or Better %, and SG: Off-the-Tee will receive the most weight in my model, with an added emphasis on distance given the forgiving driving corridors. While avoiding the numerous hazards is certainly important, TPC Twin Cities has consistently rewarded aggressive golfers who generate birdie chances rather than those simply trying to play mistake-free golf.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast.

• Thursday: Near-perfect scoring conditions are expected for the opening round. Winds should remain around 10 mph or less throughout the day with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the high-60s and 70s.

• Friday: Winds gradually increase throughout the day, with sustained speeds reaching around 15 mph during the afternoon. Gusts should remain in the 20–30 mph range for much of the day, but overall scoring conditions still look manageable.

• Weekend: Warm temperatures continue into the weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 80s on Saturday (90s by late afternoon) and potentially triple digits by Sunday afternoon. Winds should remain manageable overall, and only a slight chance of rain currently exists late Sunday. Golfers will certainly need to stay hydrated out there this weekend!

⚖️ Weather Verdict: There doesn't appear to be a meaningful wave advantage based on the current forecast. You could make a slight case for the PM/AM wave, as Friday morning is expected to feature lighter sustained winds, but stronger gusts compared to the afternoon could offset much of that potential edge. Unless the forecast changes significantly before Thursday morning, I wouldn't let weather influence lineup construction this week.

3M Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1.  Strokes Gained: Approach – 25%

2. Birdie or Better % – 20%

3. Par 4 Average – 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – 15%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better % – 10%

6. Driving Distance – 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting – 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Why these stats?

SG: Approach (25%) – TPC Twin Cities has consistently rewarded elite iron play since joining the PGA Tour rotation. Recent champions have gained massive strokes on approach, and with large, receptive greens, golfers who repeatedly give themselves quality birdie looks tend to separate from the field.

Birdie or Better % (20%) – Winning scores can easily reach the 20-under range here, making scoring upside one of the most important traits to target. This isn't the week to prioritize golfers who simply avoid mistakes – you need players capable of stringing birdies together.

Par 4 Average (15%) – There are four Par 4s measuring under 450 yards, creating plenty of scoring opportunities outside of the Par 5s. Golfers who consistently capitalize on those holes can quickly climb the leaderboard.

SG: Off-the-Tee (15%) – Wide fairways encourage aggressive play, allowing golfers to lean on driver more often than usual. Players who combine distance with solid driving will generate shorter approach shots and more birdie chances throughout the week.

Par 5 Birdie or Better % (10%) – While all three Par 5s measure over 590 yards, they still represent the easiest scoring opportunities on the course. Golfers who fail to take advantage of them will quickly lose ground in what should once again be a low-scoring event.

Driving Distance (10%) – Length has proven to be a real advantage at TPC Twin Cities. Longer hitters can attack the Par 5s more effectively while leaving themselves shorter clubs into several of the lengthy Par 4s.

SG: Putting (5%) – Approach play may create the opportunities, but converting birdie chances is what ultimately wins tournaments here. The bentgrass greens are generally straightforward, allowing hot putters to capitalize when paired with strong ball striking.

3M Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Course Fit / Key Stats Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

3M Open DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter/X @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.