By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour returns stateside and heads to Blaine, Minnesota, where TPC Twin Cities will play host to the 3M Open. This will only be the sixth year that this course and tournament have been on the PGA circuit so the course history will be somewhat limited. As expected, the strength of this field does not compare to last week’s Open Championship, but there are still some recognizable names teeing it up this week. In total, 39 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be in attendance and there is plenty of rising talent that will be looking to make a splash as well. Do note that the 36-hole cut rule will revert to the standard “top 65 golfers (including ties)” making it into the weekend. Next week will provide one of the most unique events in the sport with the Olympic Golf Competition taking place in Paris. Two weeks after that, the FedEx Cup Playoffs will begin, so the 3M Open will represent one of the final chances for golfers to secure valuable FEC points! This is far from a marquee tournament, but it should be a solid event, and if you like birdies, plenty of those are expected over the next few days!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Twin Cities

Par 71 | 7,341 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Cut Line Last 4 Years: -4, +1, -1, -1, -2

Winning Scores Last 4 Years:  -24, -17, -15, -19, -21

First Tee: Thursday, July 25th @ 7:45 am ET

This course may be making just its sixth appearance on the PGA Tour but TPC Twin Cities has been on the Champions Tour circuit for quite some time. For the uninformed, that’s the senior’s golf tour and even those older gentlemen can tear up this place – regularly winning with a score of around 20-under. The PGA did add over 250 yards in length to better challenge the PGA caliber players when TPC Twin Cities was added onto the circuit in 2019 but, in ideal conditions, we can expect a winning score to land in the vicinity of 20-under.

That isn’t to say TPC Twin Cities doesn’t have any teeth. It is a lengthier Par 71 set up and there are 72 bunkers to navigate as well as a whopping 27 water hazards which come into play on 15 holes. Since this is a traditional Par 71, there are three Par 5 holes in play. All three of these Par 5s will play just above 590 yards, so any golfer with above-average length off of the tee should have ample opportunity to go low on those holes. In the last three seasons, essentially a third of all birdies scored came from those three Par 5s. Since this course is on the longer side, it is no surprise that 25% of all approach shots come from 200+ yards, so that will be an important approach range to keep in mind. Three of the four Par 3s measure in at over 200 yards, so accurate long iron play will be vital on those holes as well.

Aside from that, I’ll be formulating a basic recipe with the remaining key stats that should correlate well with this course. Those are strokes gained on approach, overall birdie or better percentage, and Par 4 scoring average. I’m also going to weigh in strokes gained off the tee with an emphasis on driving distance. The rough at TPC Twin Cities is very manageable, especially in comparison to last week’s British Open, so wayward drivers won’t be penalized too much. The fairways are also slightly wider than average thus incentivizing a “bomb and gouge” approach. The bentgrass greens are multi-tiered, above average in size, and feature very little undulation. When it comes to green speeds, they should run at average to slightly fast speeds (about 12 on the stimpmeter). In general, there just isn’t anything overly challenging about this place as long as golfers can keep their golf balls out of the water and the weather stays fairly cooperative. Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

• Thursday AM: Very calm conditions to start the day with winds under 5 mph, picking up closer to 10 mph around midday. No significant gusts, dry and mostly sunny with pleasant temps in the 60s/70s.

• Thursday PM: Winds hovering around 10 mph, perhaps a hair stronger at times.

• Friday AM: Things kick up a notch with 10 mph sustained winds, and gusts up to around 20 mph. Cloudy with a low-end chance of some light rain.

• Friday PM: Sustained winds closer to 15 mph. Gusts not quite as strong as the AM, but still around 20 mph at times.

• Weekend: Fairly windy over the weekend. 15 mph sustained on Saturday with 25+ mph gusts. 10-15 mph sustained on Sunday with ~20 mph gusts. Temps warm up as well and will get into the 80s. Still mostly sunny without much chance for rain.

⚖️Weather Verdict: I’ll pin an ever so slight preference to the AM/PM wave due to the calmer overall conditions on Thursday morning combined with the slightly less gusty conditions on Friday afternoon. Don’t go overboard by forcing golfers into lineups just because they’re in the AM/PM wave, but it could be worth a shot to sprinkle in a “wave stack” lineup here or there.

3M Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Driving Distance | 10%

7. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

3M Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

3M Open DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.