PGA DFS Guide + DraftKings & FanDuel Cheat Sheet | The American Express ⛳

The PGA Tour kicks off the California Swing with a talented field teeing up at The American Express!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour kicks off the California swing with a trip out to La Quinta, California where PGA West will play host to The American Express. This is one of the more unique tournaments on the entire Tour as it features a three-course rotation with a 54-hole cut coming after Saturday’s round (top 65 + ties). The American Express is also a Pro-Am so, with the amateurs slowing down play, expect longer rounds and a bit of non-golf-focused TV coverage at times. This is a full-field event with 156 golfers getting ready to tee off. It’s also a fairly rich talent pool with 37 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers on site, including five of the top 10 (Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Will Zalatoris).

The Course Preview ⛳

Pete Dye Stadium Course (PDSC)

Par 72 | Length: 7,113 Yards

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 37th, 37th, 36th, 40th, 36th,

Nicklaus Tournament Course (NTC)

Par 72 | Length: 7,159 Yards

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 39th, 34th, 40th, 48th, 50th

La Quinta Country Club (LQCC)

Par 72 | Length: 7,060 Yards

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 43rd, 41st, 49th, 51st, 49th

All three courses in play this week are shorter Par 72 tracks that range between 7,060 and 7,159 yards in length and feature Bermuda greens. The greens are also overseeded with Ryegrass and Poa Trivialis and will run on the slower side, around 10-11 on the stimpmeter. The PDSC will be the only course in which golfers will play twice, once before the 54-hole cut and once in the final round on Sunday. It’s also the only course that will provide ShotLink data this week. Several factors will lead to the order in which these three courses play in terms of least to most difficult. LQCC is the most likely to be the easiest course to play on while the PDSC is the favorite to play as the most difficult while the NTC lands in the middle. However, there is not a wide gap in difficulty between any of these courses. However it shakes out, we can expect plenty of scoring this week as the winning score has landed between 20-under and 26-under in each of the last seven seasons, and 23-under or lower in each of the last four.

Strategy Notes 💡

With every golfer receiving a guaranteed three rounds of play (barring injury or disqualification), I believe it brings a “stars and scrubs” approach further into play. Also, if you play showdown contests, there could be a noticeable edge to be had by rostering golfers who play on the easier course. As mentioned above, the LQCC is likely to be the easiest of the three, followed by the NTC, so I’d start there with golfers on Thursday (in single-round formats). Once it is known how things will play out after the opening round, then you can make adjustments if need be for the Friday and Saturday rounds.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

Weather Verdict: We can keep this section short and sweet this week. Golfers couldn’t ask for better conditions to play in this time of year. Winds will hang under 10 mph for the entire week and typically <5 mph. Plenty of sunshine with pleasant temps. No weather worries or wave advantages this week.

You can check out what course golfers are playing on which days by clicking the link below (sort by round).

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Par 5 Average | 15%

4. Par 4 Average | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

The American Express Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, leverage, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

The American Express PGA Cheat Sheet

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.

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