By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour rolls into the second week of the Florida Swing as golfers head to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event annually draws an elite field, with many of the world’s best players coming out to honor one of the game’s all-time greats. For the fourth year in a row, the API will carry Signature Event status, meaning a smaller but extremely talented field will compete for an increased prize pool and additional FedEx Cup points.

Within this 72-player field, 42 of the top 50 ranked players in the world (via DataGolf) will be teeing it up this week. There will once again be a nontraditional 36-hole cut after Friday’s round, where the top 50 players on the leaderboard (including ties) and anyone within 10 strokes of the lead will advance to the weekend. With that structure in place, nearly 70% of the field is guaranteed to make the cut, which opens the door for more aggressive lineup builds in tournaments featuring multiple studs in the same lineup. Given the fairly soft pricing across the board, a balanced roster construction is firmly in play as well, particularly for cash builds. Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Par 72 | 7,466 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Type: Parkland

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 8th, 10th, 6th, 4th, 9th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +4, +3, +2, +3, +2

The iconic Bay Hill sets up as a Par 72 and measures in at 7,466 yards. Due to its extreme length and mix of course defenses, it routinely plays as one of the most difficult Par 72 layouts on the PGA Tour schedule – often THE most difficult. Bay Hill has hosted this event for decades and has undergone a few renovations over the years, most notably in the mid-2010s when several fairways were widened and some overgrown rough and trees were removed in certain areas. Around that same time, new Bermuda greens were also installed. Despite those adjustments, the course has still been set up to play extremely challenging in recent seasons, often with rough approaching “major championship” caliber and wind providing an additional layer of difficulty.

It’s a course where elite ball strikers tend to reign supreme and it will actually play longer than its scorecard length in large part due to the threat of water hazards as well as several doglegged hole designs that are in play. Water comes into play on eight holes and there are 84 bunkers scattered throughout the course. With numerous water hazards and thick rough surrounding the fairways, Bay Hill demands a ton of respect off the tee. Despite the fairly wide tree-lined fairways, you will still see many golfers elect to play less than driver on certain holes where hazards are more prevalent. The average driving distance at Bay Hill over the last five years has only been about 280–285 yards, which is notably short by PGA Tour standards.

Similar to last week, there will be a considerable number of golf balls finding the drink, which can lead to some ugly numbers on the scorecard. Of course, the smaller field at this year’s API will decrease that total somewhat, but the point remains that plenty of shots will be going for a rinse this week.

Due to the overall length of this course, over a third of all approach shots are expected to come from 200+ yards out, so players who hit their long irons well will fare better than those who struggle from distance. On approach shots, golfers will be targeting average-sized Bermuda grass greens that tend to run fast, typically around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Some of these green complexes are elevated and many feature significant slope, undulation, and runoff areas along the edges. Because of that, approach play and overall iron precision tend to separate the field far more than driving statistics alone.

Nearly half of all birdies made at Bay Hill come on the four Par 5 holes, none of which stretch longer than 570 yards. Players who can take advantage of those scoring opportunities will be a necessity for DFS builds. It seems quite obvious, but if golfers fail to score well on the Par 5s, they won’t be anywhere near contention come Sunday. Tiger Woods, an eight-time winner of this event, once noted that his strategy for success at Bay Hill was to “play for par on most holes and be aggressive on the Par 5s.” Seems simple enough, right? Patience, creativity, and the ability to grind are major intangible keys to success at Bay Hill.

Last year, Russell Henley won with a score of 11-under and was one of only two players, along with Collin Morikawa, to reach double-digits below par. In his first victory at the event four years ago, Scottie Scheffler won with a score of just 5-under as Bay Hill ended up playing as the fourth most difficult course on the PGA Tour that season. The 2020 event was another extreme example when Tyrrell Hatton won at just 4-under and Bay Hill ranked as the single most difficult course played during the entire 2019–20 PGA Tour season.

Make no mistake, even in ideal conditions Bay Hill can be an incredibly demanding test. Unpolished or errant play will be severely punished and can quickly send golfers tumbling down the leaderboard. As with any course in Florida, wind can add an extra layer of difficulty to scoring conditions. After looking at the early forecast, winds should top out around 10–15 mph, though conditions in the Sunshine State can shift quickly. Factoring in course history a bit more than usual also makes sense this week, as players tend to either perform well here consistently or struggle mightily. There is rarely much middle ground.

This should be another fun tournament to watch, so let’s dive right in. Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Weather conditions should be fairly manageable for the opening two rounds at Bay Hill. Winds will generally sit in the 5–10 mph range through most of Thursday and Friday, with occasional gusts creeping into the mid-teens but nothing overly concerning. The pattern looks very similar across both mornings and afternoons, so there does not appear to be any meaningful tee-time or wave advantage in play. Over the weekend, winds could tick up slightly into the 10–15 mph range, which may add a bit of difficulty but still shouldn’t dramatically impact scoring.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

API DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Course Fit / Key Stats Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

API DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter/X @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.