By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour moseys its way back down to the Lone Star State as golfers get set to tee it up for the AT&T Byron Nelson which will be hosted at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. This tournament has been around since 1944, but this course only just made its PGA Tour debut in this event in 2021. So this will be only the third year in which we’ll see the top pros tee it up at TPC Craig Ranch, although some Korn Ferry Tour events have been held here in years past. For the most part, course history should only factor minimally into overall DFS decision-making this week.

This will be a full-field event featuring 156 golfers where the top 65 players (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will make it past the cut line and advance into weekend play. Several notable players have withdrawn their names from competition this week, mostly for undisclosed reasons, but there are still plenty of recognizable golfers set to tee it up. 27 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be on site this week, led by world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler. This is the final chance for the top golfers to fine-tune their game ahead of the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club next week! There is plenty at stake for many, many golfers this week so it should be an exciting event to both watch and build PGA DFS lineups for!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Craig Ranch

Par 71 | 7,414 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

2022 & 2021 Cut Line: -5 & -6

2022 & 2021 Difficulty Rank: 47th & 47th

TPC Craig Ranch is a Par 71 and the course extends just over 7,400 yards. This course formerly played as a Par 72 but the Par 5, 12th hole has been converted to a 493-yard Par 4 this season. PGA Tour players have torn this course up each of the last two years when the cut line reached 5-under and 6-under while KH Lee went on to win both years with scores of 26-under (2022) and 25-under (2021). So, the main point to make is that, in decent weather conditions, golfers can shoot some very low rounds here.

Off the tee, golfers will see rolling fairways that are above average in width and feature bouncy Zoysia grass. The rough has been fairly light and manageable each of the last two years but will be grown out slightly more this season which could make for some gnarly lies in certain spots. Scattered trees and bunkers border many of these fairways, which are mostly straight instead of doglegged. Water hazards, which are generally smaller bodies of water like streams and creeks instead of ponds and lakes, will technically come into play on about 14 of the holes. Ultimately, that water should not play a major factor outside of a few holes, primarily down the closing stretch on the back nine. Golfers would have to be either very unlucky or very wayward out of the tee box to put their ball into the drink more than once or twice the entire week. With all factors considered, fairway accuracy off of the tee shouldn’t be overly vital on this course.

None of the Par 5s extend more than 570 yards so those three holes will provide the best birdie opportunities and will be reachable in two shots by much of the field. In 2022, the Par 5s represented three of the four easiest holes on the course so golfers must score low on those holes if they wish to truly contend. Longer hitters could have an edge on the Par 4s as seven will measure in at over 450 yards. The 492-yard Par 4, 16th hole stands out as the toughest challenge of the week, and it played as the most difficult hole on the course in each of the last two seasons; however, the newly converted 493-yard Par 4, 12th hole may give No. 16 a run for its money this go-'round. Long iron accuracy will be vital as well with plenty of approach shots coming from a distance of 200+ yards to the pin. The bentgrass greens are above average in size and should produce a high GIR percentage (wind permitting), and they are set to run at moderate speeds of around 11.5 on the stimpmeter. Targeting golfers who generally roll it well on bentgrass greens is never a bad idea, especially when there are so few course defenses to contend with elsewhere. The primary course defense at TPC Craig Ranch is the Texas winds, which may cause some issues this week, but more on that below in the weather section.

Overall, I’ll be keeping my targeted key stats very straightforward this week. I’ll be looking for strong ball strikers with lengthy drivers being a bonus, guys with accurate long irons, proficient Par 4/Par 5 scorers, and positive bentgrass putting splits. Let’s get one final PGA DFS tune-up in ourselves before the PGA Championship comes at us next week! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Very light ~5 mph winds in the early morning, gradually picking up to around 10 mph sustained with 15-20 mph gusts in the late morning.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds pick up to around 15 mph at midday and into the afternoon hours. Gusts could reach upwards of 25+ mph. Low-end chance of some light rain as well.

Friday AM: Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts nearing close to 30 mph. Low-end chance of some rainstorms.

Friday PM: Similar to the Friday AM forecast, just with less intense gusts (~20 mph).

Weekend: Saturday brings forth the strongest chance of rain throughout the day with fairly windy conditions (10 mph sust., 15-20 mph gusts). Sunday looks great with only minimal chance of light rain along with lighter winds.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Given the current forecast, it seems too iffy to make any sort of wave advantage claim. The AM/PM wave may end up with the better overall weather draw but, ultimately, there probably won’t be a major difference in scoring between the two waves. Be sure to check the latest forecast on Wednesday night (or very early Thursday morning) in case of any notable changes.

AT&T Byron Nelson Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 25%

> Emphasis on Driving Distance | 5%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

AT&T Byron Nelson Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

AT&T Byron Nelson DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.