One of the more iconic courses on the PGA Tour makes its way onto the schedule this week with professionals and amateurs alike preparing to tee it up at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour stays in California for the third straight week as golfers get set to tee off at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! This can be a bit of a frustrating event for both fans and players, and we’ve seen many top golfers opt to skip out on this tournament despite its popular association with the PGA Tour. One main reason is, since it is a Pro-Am, each pro will have an amateur golfer paired with them and will play in groups of four. This results in the rounds being very slow, lasting upwards of eight hours. This event is also played on three separate courses, which some golfers are averse to, and Shot Link/Shot Tracker data is only available on one of them: Pebble Beach Golf Links, which is where the majority of TV coverage will stick to as well. The good news is that this will be the final event of the season where multiple courses are in play! Also expect a heavy dose of celebrity interviews throughout the broadcast this week. This is something many golf fans, myself included, could not care less about.

Anyhow, I won’t gripe too much. This event can certainly be a fun one to watch and the picturesque views at Pebble Beach are hard to beat. Looking at the 156-player field, we have a decent but not overly strong set of golfers to choose from. Only three of the world’s top 25 golfers, and 21 of the top 100, have elected to make the trip to Pebble Beach this year. But there are plenty of recognizable names on site, headlined by golfers like Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Fitzpatrick. You’ll also see some other famous athletes and celebrities make appearances this week such as Josh Allen, Larry Fitzgerald, Bill Murray, Jason Bateman, Aaron Rodgers, and many others. Just like at The American Express tournament from a couple of weeks ago, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will have a three-course rotation with a 54-hole cut coming after Saturday’s round where the top 60 golfers (including ties) will go on to play the final Sunday round (note the smaller than usual amount of golfers that will make the cut this week, normally it’s the top 65 + ties).

I normally advise folks to go fairly light on their bankroll for this event. To each their own, of course, but the PGA schedule really hits a nice stride beginning next week when the Waste Management Phoenix Open rolls around. The WMPO begins a stretch of golf where we’ll see much more “traditional” events with stronger fields competing on a single course across all four rounds. That said, let’s make the most of this week and have some fun!

The Course Preview ⛳

Tournament Note: Golfers will rotate between each of the three courses over the first three days of this event.

Pebble Beach Golf Links (PBGL)

Par: 72

Yardage: 6,816

Greens: Poa

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 35th, 29th, 8th, 12th, 16th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -4, -1, -3, -2, -2

Pebble Beach GL is a short Par 72 which stretches just over 6,800 yards. The course’s coastal setup provides some of the best views of any track on Tour but it also brings in the potential for impactful wind conditions – though, it is looking as if the winds will hold off until the weekend rounds (more on that below). The fairways are wider than Tour average and the preferred landing zones will be protected by various hazards. With all of the amateurs in the field, the rough is expected to be shorter and quite manageable to play out of. Many golfers this week will elect to leave their driver in the bag in an attempt to simply keep their ball in the fairway and set themselves up for a more favorable approach shot. As a result, this course has one of the highest hit fairway percentages on the PGA Tour – routinely the field will hit 70+% of fairways at PBGL (75.3% Driving Accuracy in 2022). This is considered a “second shot course” as golfers will be looking to target the smallest green complexes on the PGA Tour. These greens don’t feature much slope or undulation, necessarily, but they do not take up much real estate and average only about 3,500 square feet; this means pinpoint iron play will be crucial. The poa annua grass greens shouldn’t run overly fast (around 10-11 on the stimpmeter) but we’ll see some deceptive and bumpy putts, especially later in the day since poa grass grows quickly in comparison to other popular grass types used on putting surfaces. Look for around the green play to be crucial here as well since every golfer is inevitably going to miss landing their approach shots on some of those tiny greens.

Spyglass Hill Golf Club (SHGC)

Par: 72

Yardage: 7,035

Greens: Poa

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 16th, 11th, 5th, 20th, 22nd

Spyglass Hill GC is another Par 72 which checks in at just over 7,000 yards in length. The first five holes on the front nine sit along the coastline but, after that, every hole moves more inland. More trees are in play here than on PBGL and the fairways are about average in width. The greens are also a bit larger than PBGL but are still small by PGA Tour standards, and they should carry a bit more slope and undulation. The putting surface will also consist of poa annua grass. In years past, Spyglass Hill GC and Pebble Beach Golf Links have played quite similarly to one other in terms of difficulty. Though, in the last three seasons, Spyglass Hill GC has been one of the more difficult courses on the entire PGA circuit. It is worth noting when the wind isn’t much of a factor like it has been in the last few seasons, both SHGC and PBGL should be expected to play noticeably easier.

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (MPCC)

Par: 72

Yardage: 6,958

Greens: Poa

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 31st, N/A, 30th, 22nd, 38th

Finally, we have the Monterey Peninsula CC which, like Pebble Beach GL, also comes in at under 7,000 yards in scorecard length. This course will be the odds-on favorite to play as the easiest of the three so, if you’re someone who plays single-round DFS contests or you make first round leader bets, this is likely the course where you’ll want to target golfers across the initial three rounds. Tee times and course assignments by round will be linked in the weather/tee time section below. MPCC features sweeping fairways which are wide and possess limited elevation changes. Golfers will see the ocean while playing on this course but, unlike the other two courses, the ocean will never come into play on any hole. The biggest course defense at Monterey Peninsula CC will be those tricky poa greens which will also be on the smaller side at about 5,000 square feet, on average.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Weather Verdict: Winds will be very manageable over the initial two days but more problematic winds (15+ mph sustained, 20-30 mph gusts) are expected to come into the picture on Saturday and Sunday. As a reminder, the cut for this tournament will not come until after the third round on Saturday. At the time of this writing, tee times have not been posted yet but I could see a potential edge to be had for golfers who avoid the two coastal courses (Pebble Beach & Spyglass Hill) during that windy Saturday round. As mentioned in the course breakdowns, only the first five holes on Spyglass Hill GC are exposed to the coastline so the golfers who tee off on Pebble Beach GL on Saturday may be at the largest disadvantage. I wouldn’t completely rule out golfers who play Pebble Beach GL on Saturday but, given the current forecast, it is something to keep in mind when building your PGA DFS player pool. As a reminder, be sure to check the most up-to-date forecasts on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning before the first tee.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tee Times & Course Assignments

(Tee times should be posted midday on Wednesday. Sort by round to see Friday/Saturday tee times/course assignments)

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa) | 10%

5. Par 4 Average | 10%

6. Par 5 Average | 5%

7. Proximity to the Hole | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Model Standouts

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PGA Cheat Sheet 

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.