By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour stays in California for the third straight week as golfers get set to tee off at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am! This event’s format will be much different than in years past. It’s one of the PGA Tour’s eight “signature events” in the 2024 season, which shakes things up dramatically. Normally, this event features a full 156-player field with a three-course rotation and a cut coming after golfers finish the third round. With its newly elevated status, the Pebble Beach Pro-Am will now feature just 80 golfers who have met specific and prominent qualifications, a two-course rotation, and no cut line, meaning every golfer will compete across all four rounds, barring injury or disqualification. The purse has also been increased to $20 million and there are 700 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. So, by all means, this is an elite field and 41 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world will be teeing it up. And there are only two golfers in the field who rank outside the top 200 in the world, the lowest being Peter Malnati (No. 249).

Pebble Beach is one of the most iconic courses on the PGA circuit but the lack of a cut does take a little spice out of things from a DFS perspective. But the amount of star power we have here this year does sort of negate my grievances with the lack of a cut line. Fortunately, the PGA schedule really hits a nice stride beginning next week when the WM Phoenix Open rolls around. The WMPO begins a stretch of golf where we’ll see many more “traditional” events with consistently strong fields competing on a single course across all four rounds. That said, let’s make the most of this week and have some fun! Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Tournament Note: Golfers will rotate between Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Club on Thursday and Friday, with every golfer playing one round on each. The final two rounds on Saturday and Sunday will be played exclusively on Pebble Beach GL.

Pebble Beach Golf Links (PBGL)

Par: 72

Yardage: 7,051

Greens: Poa

Since Pebble Beach GL will be played for three rounds by every golfer, it will be the course we’ll most heavily focus on. Pebble Beach GL is a short Par 72 which stretches just over 7,000 yards. The course’s coastal setup provides some of the best views of any track on Tour but it also brings in the potential for impactful wind conditions. The fairways are wider than the Tour average by about nine yards and the preferred landing zones will be protected by various hazards. With all of the amateurs in the field, the rough tends to be shorter and quite manageable to play out of. Due to several doglegged holes and shorter fairways, many golfers will leave their driver in the bag in an attempt to simply keep their ball in the fairway and set themselves up for a more favorable approach shot. As a result, the average driving distance at PBGL is about 20 yards shorter than the Tour average and this course often has one of the highest hit fairway percentages on the PGA Tour – routinely the field will hit 70+% of fairways at PBGL (66.2% Driving Accuracy in 2023, but the wind was a problem at times).

This is considered a “second shot course” as, upon approach, golfers will be targeting the smallest green complexes on the PGA Tour. These greens do not feature much slope or undulation, necessarily, but they do not take up much real estate either and average only about 3,500 square feet; this means pinpoint iron play will be crucial. The poa annua grass greens shouldn’t run overly fast (around 10-11 on the stimpmeter) but we’ll see some deceptive and bumpy putts, especially later in the day since poa grass grows quickly in comparison to other popular putting surfaces. Look for around the green play to be crucial here as well since every golfer is inevitably going to miss landing their approach shots on some of those tiny greens.

Spyglass Hill Golf Club (SHGC)

Par: 72

Yardage: 7,041

Greens: Poa

Spyglass Hill GC is another short Par 72 which checks in at just over 7,000 yards in length. The first five holes on the front nine sit along the coastline but, after that, every hole moves more inland, meaning it is much more protected from coastal winds compared to PBGL. More trees are in play here than on PBGL and the fairways are about average in width. The greens are also a bit larger than PBGL but are still small by PGA Tour standards, and they should carry a bit more slope and undulation. The putting surface will also consist of poa annua grass. In years past, Spyglass Hill GC and Pebble Beach Golf Links have played quite similarly to one other in terms of difficulty. It is worth noting when the wind isn’t much of a factor, both SHGC and PBGL should be expected to play noticeably easier overall.

Winners & Winning Scores L5 Seasons

2023: Justin Rose (-18)

2022: Tom Hoge (-19)

2021: Daniel Berger (-18)

2020: Nick Taylor (-19)

2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

⚖️Weather Verdict: First off, since there is no cut for this event, weather plays less of a factor for DFS purposes and it shouldn’t impact any decision-making this week, outside of maybe single-round contests. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool and aren’t expected to exceed beyond the high 50s. Across the first three rounds, while there may be some periods of rain/scattered showers, play should not be drastically impacted and winds will generally stay below 10 mph. Not perfect conditions, but not awful. Sunday’s forecast looks like a COMPLETELY different beast. Not only is heavy rain expected throughout the day, but winds will be absolutely brutal. Wind speeds are currently forecasted to start out at 15 mph sustained with 25 mph gusts on Sunday morning, and gradually increase throughout the day, eventually hitting 35 mph sustained/60 mph (!!!) gusts by late afternoon. You could hardly craft worse golf conditions than what Sunday’s forecast is currently showing us. The #TeamChaos side of me kind of hopes they try to play in those horrid conditions on Sunday, but it really would not surprise me if we end up seeing a Monday finish. Monday conditions don’t look great either (stretches of light/moderate rain w/ 20 mph sustained winds/30+ mph gusts), but certainly much better than Sunday! We’ll see if the forecast changes between now and then but, for the time being, don’t be surprised if we see Sunday’s entire final round get pushed back.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tee Times & Round 1/Round 2 Course Assignments

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

5. Par 4 Average | 10%

6. Par 5 Average | 5%

7. Proximity to the Hole | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.