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By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The field has now been whittled down to 50 players who have qualified for the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs! This week’s BMW Championship represents the penultimate event of the season and will be held at Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. For golfers to qualify for next week’s TOUR Championship at East Lake GC in Atlanta, they must land inside the top 30 of the FedEx Cup rankings by the end of this week’s tournament!

The PGA has eliminated the starting-strokes format for the TOUR Championship, which was in use from 2019 to 2024. If you remember, that format gave golfers who were closer to the top of the FEC standings a distinct advantage as they began the week well under par before even taking their first swing. So, for this field of 50 golfers, the goal is simple: survive and advance. As long as a golfer is in the top 30 of the FEC standings by week’s end, they’ll have as fair a shake as anyone at taking down the TOUR Championship and the $10 million payday that is awarded to the winner. Best of luck!

FedExCup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

Caves Valley Golf Club

Par 70 | 7,601 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Caves Valley last hosted the BMW Championship in 2021, when it turned into an absolute birdie-fest. Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau ran away from the field and shot a ridiculous 27-under before Cantlay finally prevailed in a six-hole playoff. Cantlay gained more than 14.5 strokes putting that week, a record in the Strokes Gained era, and DeChambeau averaged 345 yards off the tee, which included a Friday round of 60. Preferred lies, soft conditions, and rain played a role in the low scores, but the course simply didn’t offer much resistance.

This year will be a much different story. Caves Valley underwent a major renovation in 2023, and the PGA TOUR clearly wants this layout to punch back. The Par 72 layout from 2021 is now an incredibly lengthy Par 70 at 7,601 yards, which is about as long as it gets for this setup. Two of the Par 5s have been converted into Par 4s, and the fairways are narrower with thicker rough lining them. The course now features 68 bunkers, and water comes into play on five holes. A new sub-air system has also been installed, making the medium-sized bentgrass greens (5,200 sq. ft. on average) firmer and faster.

With Caves Valley now playing as a true brute, the setup demands distance off the tee and rewards precise iron play. The fairways are tree-lined, and the rough is expected to be in the 3-4 inch range, so hitting from the short grass will be critical. Given its new and traditional Par 70 setup, the course now includes 12 Par 4s, seven of which fall between 450-500 yards, so strong mid-to-long iron play and scoring well from this range will be key. Expect the winning score to be far closer to the high teens under par as opposed to what we saw a few years ago!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: With no cut rule in play and more condensed tee times, weather will be less of a factor for DFS purposes. That said, I’m not seeing much in the way of a tee time advantage to begin with. The first two rounds will feature slightly gustier conditions in the morning hours, while winds should stay calm (< 10 mph) in the afternoons. The weekend looks even better with wind speeds expected to stay in the single digits. Save for a stray storm or two, it looks as if it will be mostly sunny and warm all week as well.

BMW Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better % | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

5. Driving Distance | 10%

6. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting | 5%

8. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

BMW Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

BMW Championship DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.