By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

Following an eventful week at the PGA Championship, where Scottie Scheffler dominated yet another Major, the PGA Tour now travels back to the Lone Star State to tee it up for the Charles Schwab Challenge, which Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, will once again host. Despite this being a week following a Major, there is still quite a talented field in play for this event. 49 of the top 100 ranked golfers (via DataGolf) are set to tee it up this week. Since this tournament is being run as a non-signature event invitational, the field will be slimmed down a bit compared to some other full-field events. There are 135 total players on site, and the standard cut rule is back in play with the top 65 (including ties) making it past the 36-hole cut line.

The Course Preview ⛳

Colonial Country Club | Fort Worth, TX

Par 70 | 7,289 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 5th, 6th, 11th, 18th, 13th

Cutline Last 5 Years: +2, +1, +1, +1, -2

Comp Courses: Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind

Winners & Winning Scores L5Years:

Davis Riley (-14)

Emiliano Grillo (-8)

Sam Burns (-9)

Jason Kokrak (-14)

Daniel Berger (-15)

While this tournament has changed names several times, Colonial Country Club has been played every year on the PGA circuit for the last 79 years, dating back to 1946, making it the longest-standing non-Major PGA Tour venue. That will make this a great week to weigh course history heavier than usual.

Colonial CC is a Par 70, which stretches just under 7,300 yards. This is a traditionally styled course that features narrow tree-lined Bermuda grass fairways and small bentgrass greens, which will run moderately fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter). Colonial CC has plenty of teeth and can routinely play inside the top 20 in terms of course difficulty, and it ranked as the 5th toughest course in the 2024 season. The 36-hole cut line fell to 2-under here back in 2020 when the field was absolutely loaded – some may recall that this event marked the “return to golf” following a three-month-long break from play due to the COVID pandemic, so nearly every top golfer in the world showed up to compete. But in the four years since, the cutline has landed at an over-par score of either +1 or +2.

With only two Par 5s in play, efficient scoring on the twelve Par 4s will be critical. The fairways here tend to narrow further down on most holes, so this is a track where precision overrules power. Due to the course design, bombers won’t necessarily have an advantage, and a large portion of the field will opt to go “less than driver” off the tee. Pinpoint accuracy and crafty shot shaping are the skill sets that tend to reign supreme here, and an old-school, well-rounded “fairways and greens” type of play style is often rewarded. The narrow fairways are loaded with doglegs, so golfers will look to target specific landing zones to give themselves a clearer view of the greens on their approach shots. There are a total of 84 bunkers that menacingly lie around the property, and water comes into play on six holes as well. A sharp mid-iron game is a must, and a very common shot bucket will fall in the 150-175 yard range. The rough here isn’t a death sentence, but it is wiry and can often “snatch” golf balls, causing them to sink to the bottom and produce problematic lies. Combine that with the fact that the greens at Colonial CC are some of the smallest on the PGA Tour and feature some moderate undulation, and you’ll see that efficient around-the-green and bunker play can be quite important as well.

The course did undergo some renovations ahead of the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge, with newly added barrancas (narrow, winding trenches with natural vegetation) being the most visually noticeable change. New greens were also added, some hole placements were altered, and certain tee shots will come from different angles than in years past. That being said, last year the course still played very similarly to before. So, golfers in this week’s field must prepare to face a course that has frequently been a tough track to tame over the years. Let’s shake the PGA Championship hangover and continue to crush it this week! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Note: If you’re reading this on Wednesday, you can click this link to view a more detailed forecast for both Thursday and Friday rounds.

⚖️Weather Verdict: At first glance, both Thursday and Friday look to feature some pretty similar conditions. However, I could envision a scenario where the PM/AM wave gets the better end of the draw if the current forecast holds up. The main reason is due to some rain on Thursday evening that could soften up the course and provide more favorable scoring conditions on Friday morning. The PM/AM guys may also receive a slight advantage in terms of wind. I wouldn’t put much stock in it, and the forecast could certainly look different between the time of this writing and Thursday morning, so just keep an eye out for any notable changes.

Charles Schwab Challenge Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better% % | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Proximity from 150-175 Yards | 10%

6. Good Drive Percentage | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.