By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

Following an eventful week at the PGA Championship, the PGA Tour now travels back to the Lone Star State to tee it up for the Charles Schwab Challenge which will once again be hosted by Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Despite this being a week following a Major, there is still quite a talented field in play for this event. Ten of the world’s top 30 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings, including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, will be on site, along with 53 of the top 100. The field will be slimmed down a bit with 132 total players and the standard cut rule is back in play with the top 65 (including ties) making it past the 36-hole cut line.

The Course Preview ⛳

Colonial Country Club

Par 70 | 7,289 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 6th, 11th, 18th, 13th, 7th

Cutline Last 5 Years: +1, +1, +1, -2, +2

Comp Courses: Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind

Winners & Winning Scores L5Years:

Emiliano Grillo (-8)

Sam Burns (-9)

Jason Kokrak (-14)

Daniel Berger (-15)

Justin Rose (-20)

While this tournament has changed names several times over, Colonial Country Club has been played every year on the PGA circuit for the last 78 years dating back to 1946, making it the longest-standing non-Major PGA Tour venue. That will make this a great week to weigh course history heavier than usual.

Colonial CC is a shorter Par 70 which stretches just under 7,300 yards. This is a traditionally styled course that features narrow tree-lined Bermuda grass fairways and small bentgrass greens which will run moderately fast (around 12 on the stimpmeter). Despite being one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour schedule, Colonial CC can often play inside the top 20 in terms of course difficulty year in and year out. The 36-hole cut line fell to 2-under here in 2020 when the field was absolutely loaded – some may recall that this event marked the “return to golf” following a three-month-long break from play due to the COVID pandemic, so nearly every top golfer in the world showed up to compete. But in four of the last five years, the cutline has landed at an over-par score of either +1 or +2.

With only two Par 5s in play, efficient scoring on the twelve Par 4s will be imperative. The fairways here tend to narrow further down on most holes so this is a track where precision overrules power. Due to the course design, bombers won’t necessarily have an advantage and a large portion of the field will opt to go “less than driver” off the tee – not everyone, but many. Pinpoint accuracy and crafty shot shaping are the skill sets that tend to reign supreme here and an old-school, well-rounded “fairways and greens” type of play style is generally rewarded. The narrow fairways are loaded with doglegs so golfers will look to target specific landing zones to give themselves a clearer view of the greens on their approach shots. There are a total of 84 bunkers that menacingly lie around the property and water comes into play on six holes as well. A sharp mid-iron game is a must as about 45-50% of approach shots will come in the 125-175 yard range. The rough here isn’t a death sentence but it is wiry and can often “snatch” golf balls, causing them to sink to the bottom and produce problematic lies. Combine that with the fact that the greens at Colonial CC are some of the smallest on the PGA Tour and feature some moderate undulation, and you’ll see that efficient around-the-green and bunker play can be quite important as well. 

The course did undergo some renovations for 2024 with added barrancas (narrow, winding trenches with natural vegetation) being the most visually noticeable change. New greens were also added, some hole placements were altered, and certain tee shots will come from different angles than in years past. That being said, the course will likely still play similarly to previous editions of this tournament, and some rain throughout the week could also benefit scoring conditions since it could allow the greens to be more receptive. Nonetheless, golfers will face a course that has frequently been a tough track to tame. Let’s shake the PGA Championship hangover and continue to crush it this week! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Light rain is a possibility but nothing serious enough that should cause a stoppage in play. Winds will be cooperative, around 5-10 mph with no significant gusts.

Thursday PM: Sustained winds gradually increase from 10 mph to 15 mph in the late afternoon but, most notably, wind gusts begin to kick up right around midday to 20-25 mph. While it’s not depicted in the forecast image above, there will be the danger of some significant afternoon storms that could be severe enough to halt play.

Friday AM: Quite windy to begin the day with sustained speeds at 15 mph and gusts upwards of 30 mph.

Friday PM: Winds die down marginally as the day progresses, closer to 10-15 mph sustained with no significant gusts. Temps will also heat up into the low 90s. No threat of rain at any point on Friday.

Weekend: The good news is that things look fairly dry over the weekend. The bad news is that there will still be periods of notable winds on both Saturday and Sunday, around 15 mph sustained with 25-ish mph gusts at times on both days as well.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Assuming there are no lengthy stoppages that drastically alter the current tee times, there will be a fairly clear-cut weather advantage for the AM/PM wave as they will face the least windy conditions on both Thursday and Friday. Of course, this shouldn’t rule out PM/AM golfers as this is far from the largest wave advantage I’ve ever seen, but it is going to be something to take into consideration when constructing your player pool.

Charles Schwab Challenge Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Mid-Iron Accuracy: Proximity from 125-175 Yards | 10%

6. Good Drive Percentage | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.