By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Top DFS Offers 5/1/24 💸 

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $500 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry no Deposit Required 🆕

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour moseys its way back down to the Lone Star State as golfers get set to tee it up for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson which will be hosted at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. This tournament has been around since 1944, but this course had only just made its PGA Tour debut for this event in 2021. So this will be only the fourth year in which we’ll see the top pros tee it up at TPC Craig Ranch, although some Korn Ferry Tour events have been held here in years past. For the most part, course history should only factor marginally into overall DFS decision-making this week.

This will be a full-field event featuring 156 golfers where the top 65 players (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will make it past the cut line and advance into weekend play. Following a stretch of golf where we had plenty of high-profile events, many of the top golfers have elected to take this week off. However, you’ll still notice plenty of recognizable names with 32 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world on site. Another signature event hits the schedule next week (Wells Fargo Championship) which will be followed by the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club the following week. Many golfers in this field are not yet qualified for those next two tournaments so they can use this week as a way to catapult their name into qualification. This should be another great week of golf so let’s get into it!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Craig Ranch

Par 71 | 7,414 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Cut Line Last 3 Years: -4, -5, -6

Course Difficulty Rank Last 3 Years: 42nd, 47th, 47th 

TPC Craig Ranch is a Par 71 that will extend just over 7,400 yards. This course formerly played as a Par 72 but the Par 5, 12th hole was converted to a 507-yard Par 4 last season. PGA Tour players have torn this course up each of the last three years -- KH Lee was a back-to-back winner with scores of 25-under (2021) and 26-under (2022) before Jason Day reigned victorious with a 23-under score last year. So, the main point to make is that, in decent weather conditions, golfers can shoot some very low rounds here.

Off the tee, golfers will see rolling fairways that are above average in width and feature bouncy Zoysia grass. The rough has previously been fairly light and manageable in the 2021 & 2022 seasons but was grown out slightly more last year, which clearly didn’t have a significant impact on scoring conditions. Scattered trees and bunkers border many of these fairways, which are mostly straight instead of doglegged. Water hazards, which are generally smaller bodies of water like streams and creeks instead of ponds and lakes, will technically come into play on about 14 of the holes. Ultimately, that water should not play a major factor outside of a few holes that reside primarily down the closing stretch on the back nine. Golfers would have to be either very unlucky or very wayward out of the tee box to put their ball into the drink more than once or twice the entire week. With all factors considered, fairway accuracy off of the tee shouldn’t be overly vital on this course.

None of the Par 5s extend more than 570 yards so those three holes will provide the best birdie opportunities and will be reachable in two shots by much of the field. Over the last two seasons, the Par 5s represented three of the four easiest holes on the course so golfers must score low on those holes if they wish to truly contend. Longer hitters could have an edge on the Par 4s as seven will measure in at over 450 yards. When tracking your favorite players, you can anticipate for the recently converted 507-yard Par 4 No. 12 hole to play as the most difficult hole of the week, followed closely by the 483-yard Par 4 No. 16 hole. Long iron accuracy will be vital as well with plenty of approach shots coming from a distance of 200+ yards to the pin. The bentgrass greens are above average in size and should produce a high GIR percentage (wind permitting), and they are set to run at moderate speeds of around 11.5 on the stimpmeter. Targeting golfers who generally roll it well on bentgrass greens is never a bad idea, especially when there are so few course defenses to contend with elsewhere. The primary course defense at TPC Craig Ranch is the Texas winds, which may cause some issues this week, but more on that below in the weather section.

Overall, I’ll be keeping my targeted key stats very straightforward this week. I’ll be looking for strong ball strikers with lengthy drivers being a bonus, guys with accurate long irons, proficient Par 4/Par 5 scorers, and golfers with reliable flat sticks. Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Chance for some rain in the very early morning hours, perhaps just before golfers get set to tee off. Winds will be around 15 mph sustained with problematic 20-30 mph gusts.

Thursday PM: Winds gradually die down to around 10 mph sustained with only slightly stronger gusts.

Friday AM: Some heavy rains are forecasted in the early morning hours, which may be significant enough to push back tee times slightly. However, once the rain clears, it looks like golfers will face manageable 10-15 mph winds without any notable gusts.

Friday PM: 10-15 mph sustained winds with gusts around 20 mph at times. Low-end chance for some rain in the late afternoon/early evening.

Weekend: Cloudy skies on Saturday but only a low-end chance for some midday rain. Winds should stay under 10 mph for most/all of the day. Sunday could provide some issues as light-to-heavy rains are likely throughout the day and winds are going to kick up to around 15 mph in the afternoon with 20+ mph gusts. We’re too far out to have to worry about Sunday’s round but, if the current forecast holds, it’s fair to assume that we may see some sort of stoppage in play… perhaps even leading to a Monday finish.

⚖️Weather Verdict: From the looks of it, the Thursday AM golfers may face the less desirable weather draw over the first two rounds. I wouldn’t call it a massive edge, but Thursday PM/Friday AM golfers will be the preferred wave this week.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 25%

    > Emphasis on Driving Distance | 5%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.