By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels east where the Florida Swing will commence. The next four upcoming events will be hosted in the Sunshine State. The Florida Swing is an exciting, yet challenging stretch of golf and it will kick off in Palm Beach Gardens, FL where the Champions Course at PGA National will play host to The Cognizant Classic (formerly known as The Honda Classic). Be sure to stay mindful of the coastal shift, as the first tee times are now going to be set for 6:45 am ET on Thursday, February 29th -- DFS contests will of course lock at the same time.

This tournament will feature a standard-sized field with 144 players on site. The usual cut rule is once again in play as well so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will advance to play the final two rounds on the weekend. Only five of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world are on site this week, headlined by world No. 2 Rory McIlroy, so this isn’t quite a stacked field. However, there are still plenty of recognizable names teeing up with 53 of the top 100 ranked golfers on location. Given the grueling nature of the PGA National Champions Course, the quick transition from the West to the East Coast, and a pair of upcoming marquee events that boast huge purses (Arnold Palmer Invitational & THE PLAYERS Championship), it is not surprising to see that many top golfers have elected to skip out on this event. Regardless, this should be a fun tournament to watch and golfers will be truly tested this week. It’s a great week to get familiar with some less-recognizable names as well.

The Course Preview ⛳

PGA National (Champions Course)

Par 71 | 7,147 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Style: Parkland

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 17^th, 7th, 6th, 3rd, 5th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +1, Even, +1, +3, +2

The PGA National Champions Course is a Par 71 that checks in at a moderate distance of 7,147 yards. In previous years, this course played as an extremely difficult Par 70, but the 508-yard Par 4 10^th hole will now play as a 530-yard Par 5. Last season, PGA National ranked outside the top 15 in difficulty for the first time in ten years. Nonetheless, this course won’t be a cakewalk by any stretch. The average score here last season was +0.36 over par and ever since the PGA National Champions Course began hosting this event in 2007, the winning score has never been lower than 14-under – and more often than not, the winning score has settled in the single digits under par.

There is an infamously grueling three-hole stretch at the PGA National Champions Course, known as The Bear Trap, which covers holes No. 15, No. 16, and No. 17. The Bear Trap annually plays as one of the hardest three-hole stretches on the entire PGA Tour. Holes No. 5, No. 6, and No. 7 on the front nine are an extremely challenging set of holes as well and it is not uncommon for those three holes to play tougher than The Bear Trap. If golfers can grind out and play those six torturous holes at, or close to, even par, they will gain a massive edge on the field. When you’re following along with your golfers on TV coverage or via ShotTracker, keep your jaw, fists, and whatever else clinched once they approach both of those three-hole stretches!

The rough here is thick and tough to play out of. Hazards are a heavy course defense and they lurk around nearly every corner of PGA National. Water will come into play on 15 holes and the course features almost 100 sand traps. On top of the standard course hazards, wind conditions can often add to PGA National’s formidable nature. Looking at the current forecast, winds could certainly get a touch dicey out there, mostly during Friday’s second round (more on that below), but golfers should be able to avoid super difficult wind conditions this week. Driving distance isn’t really important at PGA National and we can expect many golfers to club down off of the tee in order to avoid landing their ball in the water or losing it in the wind and landing in the rough, in a bunker, or in one of the treacherous areas which surround the fairways. Typically, drives at PGA National will average only around 275 yards in distance, which is well below the PGA Tour average. Approach shots will once again be crucial this week and crafty iron play will be essential. Golfers will need to take advantage of the three Par 5s, but targeting strong Par 4 scorers makes a great deal of sense as well. Golfers who excel at avoiding bogeys should also be targeted considering the winning score has the potential to end in the single digits under par and this event has never turned into anything remotely resembling a “birdie fest.” On many holes, particularly on those two aforementioned three-hole stretches, simply scoring a par will feel like scoring a birdie at times.

One more significant change for golfers heading into The Cognizant Classic is the fact that they’ll be transitioning to Bermuda greens. Bermuda grass can be expected to run firmer and faster than Poa Annua greens, which have been in play on many of the recent West Coast courses. Also, while these greens aren’t small by any means (~7,000 avg sq/ft), the greens hit in regulation percentage (GIR%) tends to be below average on this course, so it may be wise to look out for golfers who either provide a high GIR% or are exceptional scramblers.

There are plenty of speed bumps and surprises ahead for golfers at PGA National this week but it should be another exciting event to tune into! Building DFS lineups for this event may feel more challenging than in previous weeks but if you’re willing to put in a little extra research, that should go a long way. Go into this tournament with the mindset that there will be no “safe” plays on the board and don’t be afraid to fade any particular golfer who projects for high ownership. Expect carnage to run rampant from the time golfers tee off on Thursday morning until the final putt drops on Sunday evening. Best of luck this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Winds around or below 5 mph in the morning, slightly stronger winds in the afternoon but still very manageable (<10 mph). Pleasant temps in the 70s with partly cloudy skies.

Friday: Winds will pick up about on Friday, checking in at around 10 mph sustained with 15+ mph gusts throughout the day. Temps in the low-70s with a slight chance of rain.

Weekend: Winds mostly around 10 mph throughout the weekend with no other major weather impacts expected.

⚖️Weather Verdict: I’m really not seeing much of a weather/wave advantage this week but I suppose the Thurs AM/Fri PM golfers will technically draw the best overall conditions. But weather should not impact any DFS decision-making outside of perhaps single-round contests.

The Cognizant Classic Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

5. Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Cognizant Classic DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Cognizant Classic DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.