By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines Golf Club in San Diego, California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. In many fans’ minds, this is where the road to The Masters really begins, as the schedule starts to heat up and stronger fields become the norm. This event once again draws plenty of firepower, with 58 of the world’s top 100 golfers (per DataGolf) included in a field of more than 150 players. Also, a notable aspect about this week will be the return of Brooks Koepka to the PGA Tour! Koepka, along with a few other LIV Golf players, are looking to return to the PGA Tour via the new “Returning Member Program.”

Similar to last week, this will be a multi-course event, though we’re at a two-course rotation rather than three. The traditional cut rule is also in effect, meaning the top 65 players (plus ties) after 36 holes will advance to the weekend. It should be a strong test at a familiar venue, so let’s get into it. Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Torrey Pines North

Par 72 | 7,258 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass / Poa mix

Difficulty (Last 5 Years): 9th, 39th, 37th, 48th, 44th

Torrey Pines South

Par 72 | 7,765 Yards

Greens: Poa Annua

Difficulty (Last 5 Years): 16th, 14th, 12th, 15th, 4th

Farmers Insurance Open Cut Line (Last 5 Years): +1, -3, E, -3, -1

Torrey Pines Golf Club features two Par 72 courses – Torrey Pines South and Torrey Pines North – with golfers alternating venues over the first two rounds before the South Course takes over exclusively for the final 36 holes. The South Course is the clear headliner here, checking in as one of the longest and most difficult tracks on the PGA Tour. At nearly 7,800 yards, it routinely ranks among the toughest venues on the schedule and has hosted U.S. Opens in both 2008 and 2021. Even with today’s longer-hitting players, Torrey Pines South continues to hold its own, producing one of the lowest birdie-or-better rates on TOUR most seasons.

The North Course, by comparison, is far more forgiving. It’s roughly 500 yards shorter and plays much easier from a scoring standpoint, thanks in part to more accessible greens and additional birdie opportunities – particularly on its four reachable par 5s. This course often acts as the scoring track early in the week, and if you’re playing single-round DFS or first-round leader markets, prioritizing golfers scheduled for a North Course round is still very much in play.

From a DFS standpoint, it’s important to remember that while the North Course can help players go low, the South Course is where tournaments are ultimately decided. With three rounds being played on Torrey Pines South, that’s where the majority of our stat-based focus should live for traditional four-round DFS contests this week. The South Course features narrow, tree-lined fairways averaging just 27.7 yards in width (about seven yards narrower than TOUR average), heavy bunker placement, and thick rough that can exceed 2.5 inches. Fairways are difficult to hit, and once players miss, advancing the ball cleanly becomes a real challenge.

Given the extreme length, players who can gain strokes off the tee tend to thrive here. Bombers do have an advantage, particularly because clubhead speed helps mitigate the punishment of the rough, but they still need to avoid getting too wild. Nine of the last 15 winners have ranked inside the top 30 in driving distance for the week. Shorter hitters aren’t completely out of it, but they need to be both accurate off the tee and strong with their long irons to keep pace.

Approach play is heavily skewed toward the longer end of the spectrum, with a large volume of shots coming from 175–200 yards and beyond, especially on the South Course. Seven of the par 4s stretch beyond 450 yards, making par-5 scoring and long-iron efficiency critical components of success. Players who struggle with mid-to-long irons or who lose strokes off the tee often find themselves fighting an uphill battle.

The South Course’s smaller, multi-tiered Poa annua greens add another layer of difficulty. These greens tend to get bumpier as the day goes on and are among the tougher putting surfaces on TOUR, with three-putt rates often spiking here. Putts inside 15 feet matter, but three-putt avoidance is just as important. Golfers with experience and comfort on Poa – especially those who have shown success at other West Coast stops like Pebble Beach or Riviera – often gain an edge.

This is not a birdie fest by any means. Winning scores have typically fallen in the single digits to low teens under par, with Justin Rose’s 21-under win in 2019 standing out as a clear outlier. Harris English won here last season with a score of just eight-under, and there were only five players who scored five-under or lower for the week. More often than not, Torrey Pines South rewards total driving, long-iron play, and patience – and it remains one of the more demanding all-around tests we see on the early-season PGA Tour schedule. It should be a fun one!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Weather conditions look very manageable all week at Torrey Pines. Winds should stay in the 5–10 mph range most of the time, with slightly calmer conditions in the mornings and a modest uptick in the afternoons. Friday afternoon may see a few isolated gusts push higher, but nothing that should materially impact scoring. Overall, this sets up as a neutral weather week with no meaningful wave or tee-time edge to account for.

Farmers Insurance Open Tee Times & Course Assignments

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Driving Distance | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Rough Proximity | 10%

6. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

FIO DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Course Fit / Key Stats Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

FIO DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter/X @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.