By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The first of three PGA playoff events has arrived! The top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings have earned the right to compete in the FedEx St. Jude Championship which will be held at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN. For golfers to qualify for the second playoff event next week, the BMW Championship, they will need to finish inside the top 50 in FedEx Cup standings at the end of this week. Golfers who then land in the top 30 in the FEC standings at the BMW Championship will move on to play in the TOUR Championship where seeding will determine each golfers’ starting strokes for the final playoff event. Even though there are golfers who MUST have a great finish in this event to survive and advance, I wouldn’t let the standings influence my DFS approach much, if at all. However, I will link the FEC standings below as the sweat for players to crack the top 50 in FEC points is a huge entertainment factor for this tournament.

To no surprise, this field is extremely loaded with talent. There are a few notable names missing but 25 of the top 30 ranked players in the world will be in attendance, along with 63 of the top 100. With only 70 golfers competing this week, there will be no cut rule in play. While the best of the best players tend to rise to the top of the leaderboard in this tournament, “stars and scrubs” remains a viable DFS approach. Best of luck!

FedEx Cup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Southwind

Par 70 | 7,243 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Difficulty Last Five Years: 30th, 33rd,, 14th, 25th, 11th

First Tee: Thursday, July 10th at 8:50 a.m. ET

TPC Southwind is a sneaky long course that will certainly challenge the world’s best golfers this week. While it was very “gettable” the last couple of seasons, it has routinely ranked as one of the top 20 most difficult courses throughout the years and possesses many course defenses from tee to green. The narrow tree-lined Zoysia grass fairways are very bouncy and can be difficult to hit (58.5% fairway accuracy in 2022). Many of the holes feature doglegged layouts which will place more emphasis on finding the correct landing zones. The Bermuda grass greens are small, undulated, hard to hit consistently in regulation, and run firm and fast (12-13 on the stimpmeter). Additionally, bunkers and water hazards are a major threat. The water hazards, which are in play on ten holes, are particularly dangerous -- more balls have found water at TPC Southwind than any other course since 2003… and it isn’t particularly close. Many big numbers will inevitably get written on scorecards this week. One attribute of this course that shouldn’t cause golfers too much stress is the rough, which isn’t going to be too gnarly or overly difficult to hit out of.

Many different types of golfers have had success here. Being super accurate off of the tee isn’t necessarily of the utmost importance, since the rough is reasonably forgiving. But with all of the hazards in play, you can’t exactly “bomb and gouge” this course and expect to come out unscathed. This is very much a second-shot course, so strokes gained on approach should be a heavily weighted metric. Also, as is the case with most Par 70 setups, efficient Par 4 scoring is going to be crucial since they make up 12 of the 18 holes. Due to the smaller green complexes, golfers are inevitably going to miss some of their approach shots, so gaining strokes around the greens will be necessary. An important distance for shots this week will come from the 150-175 yard range. Nearly 30% of approach shots have historically been hit from that distance at TPC Southwind. Finally, given the fact that most of these holes are going to play over par, look for golfers who excel at bogey avoidance. If TPC Southwind plays similarly to how it has in previous seasons, a winning score will be somewhere around 15-under, so don’t go into this one expecting a complete birdiefest!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Rain looks likely in the morning hours and while wind conditions aren’t brutal, there could be some 15+ mph gusts attached to the bad weather. It’s unclear if they’ll choose to push back tee times (which wouldn’t be a bad idea since it’s a smaller field) or just have the early tee times play through the wet weather.

Thursday PM: Rain clearing around midday with no real wind concerns.

Friday AM: Winds not expected to exceed far beyond 10 mph.

Friday PM: Similar winds as in the morning, perhaps gusts will be a touch stronger. Temps pushing triple digits so it’ll be a scorcher.

Weekend: There will be some occasional gusty conditions but winds should hang around 10 mph or below for most of the weekend. Temps hitting the mid-90s in the afternoons.

⚖️Weather Verdict: There is still plenty of time for the forecast to change but I’m not seeing much of a wave advantage. There’s no cut to worry about anyhow.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

6. Proximity 150-175 Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

FedEx St. Jude Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

FedEx St. Jude Championship DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.