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By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The first of three PGA playoff events has arrived! The top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings have earned the right to compete in the FedEx St. Jude Championship, which will be held at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN. For golfers to qualify for the second playoff event next week, the BMW Championship, they will need to finish inside the top 50 in FedEx Cup standings at the end of this week. Golfers who then land in the top 30 in the FEC standings at the BMW Championship will move on to play in the TOUR Championship at East Lake GC, where seeding will determine each golfer’s starting strokes for the final playoff event.

Even though there are golfers who MUST have a great finish in this event to survive and advance, I wouldn’t let the standings influence my DFS approach much, if at all. However, I will link the FEC standings below as the sweat for players to crack the top 50 in FEC points is a huge entertainment factor for this tournament. On top of advancing to the next playoff event, the top 50 golfers in the FEC standings will also earn exempt status for all of the Signature Events in 2026, which is a significant motivation for golfers who wish to climb next year’s standings and compete for bigger purses.

To no surprise, this field is extremely loaded with talent and is as strong as any other event on the schedule, outside of Majors. Rory McIlroy (#2 in FEC standings) has elected to take this week off and gear up for the final two playoff events, bringing the field size down to 69 players. With only 69 golfers competing this week, there will be no cut rule in play. So, barring withdrawal or disqualification, every golfer will compete for all four rounds. This can allow for more aggressive lineup construction, if you so wish. Best of luck!

FedExCup Standings

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Southwind

Par 70 | 7,237 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Difficulty Last Five Years: 24th, 29th, 30th, 33rd, 14th

First Tee: Thursday, August 7th at 8:20 a.m. ET

TPC Southwind is a sneaky long Par 70 that is certainly capable of challenging the world’s best golfers. While it has been “gettable” in some of the more recent seasons, it has often ranked as one of the top 25 most difficult courses throughout the years and possesses many course defenses from tee to green. Traditionally, only around a dozen golfers crack double-digit scores under par here each year.

The tree-lined Zoysia grass fairways, which are about five yards narrower than Tour average, are very bouncy and can be difficult to hit (54.0% fairway accuracy in 2024). Many of the holes feature doglegged layouts, which will place more emphasis on finding the correct landing zones to set up a clearer and more advantageous approach shot toward the green. The Bermuda grass greens are small (~4,300 sq/ft, on average), undulated, hard to hit consistently in regulation, and run firm and fast (12-13 on the stimpmeter). Additionally, bunkers and water hazards are a major threat. The water hazards, which are in play on ten holes, are particularly dangerous -- more balls have found water at TPC Southwind than any other course since 2003… and it isn’t particularly close. Many big numbers will inevitably get written on scorecards this week. One attribute of this course that shouldn’t cause golfers too much stress is the rough, which isn’t going to be too gnarly or overly difficult to hit out of.

Many different types of golfers have had success here. Being super accurate off the tee isn’t necessarily of the utmost importance, since the rough is reasonably forgiving. But with all of the hazards in play, you can’t exactly “bomb and gouge” this course and expect to come out unscathed. This is very much a second-shot course, so strokes gained on approach should be a heavily weighted metric… more so than most weeks, anyway. Also, as is the case with any traditional Par 70 setup, efficient Par 4 scoring is going to be crucial since they make up 12 of the 18 holes. Due to the smaller green complexes, golfers are inevitably going to miss some of their approach shots, so gaining strokes around the greens will be necessary. An important distance bucket for approach shots this week will come from the 150-175 yard range. Nearly 30% of approach shots have historically been hit from that distance at TPC Southwind. Finally, given the fact that most of these holes are going to play over par, look for golfers who excel at bogey avoidance. If TPC Southwind plays similarly to how it has in previous seasons, a winning score will land somewhere around 15-under, so, even with an immensely talented field in play, don’t go into this one expecting a complete birdiefest!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: With no cut rule in play, weather isn’t as much of a concern. That said, aside from some toasty temps that will get into the 90s each round, conditions look nearly perfect this week. Plenty of sunshine, no signs of rain, and cooperative wind speeds are featured on this week’s forecast. There may be a few gusts in the 20 mph range on Saturday, but that’s about the most notable aspect of this week's weather. No need to worry about any sort of tee time advantage for this tournament!

FedEx St. Jude Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

6. Proximity 150-175 Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

FedEx St. Jude Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

FedEx St. Jude Championship DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.