By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

One of the many great things about the PGA – it has the shortest off-season in American sports! Viktor Hovland came away with an $18 million top prize after winning the 2022-23 FedEx Cup Playoffs just over two weeks ago, and we’re already hopping right back into the action. However, unlike in years past, this week’s Fortinet Championship will not mark the official start of the full PGA season. Instead, these fall events will be sectioned off into their own “FedEx Cup Fall Series” and will provide golfers with a chance to retain or regain their playing status for the 2024 PGA Tour season, which will officially begin with the 2024 Sentry (formerly Tournament of Champions) in the first week of January. It’s a bit confusing, I know, but for DFS purposes, these new scheduling changes do not really have an effect since we’re just focusing on whatever tournament lies ahead of us each week.

I know NFL reigns supreme around this time of year, but PGA DFS can be a highly lucrative and entertaining venture in its own right. I honestly wasn’t much of a golf fan when I was younger but around ten years ago I began to get invested in PGA DFS and quickly became enamored with the sport. You get plenty of “bang for your buck” with four rounds/days of action with each lineup you roll out in traditional PGA DFS contests. The 36-hole cut line that is in play for the majority of tournaments also adds a unique and exciting wrinkle that cannot be found in other DFS sports. If you’ve never had to sweat the Friday cut line with your DFS lineup(s), have you really lived? Okay, I’m perhaps playing it up a bit but it is a fun time when you have a lineup, or multiple lineups, with huge potential that push six-of-six golfers past the cut line. If you’re looking to give PGA DFS a shot this upcoming season, feel free to hit me up in LineStar chat or message me over on Twitter with any questions you may have! Plenty of LineStar PGA DFS vets are usually around to answer any questions as well. There’s no time better than the present to get locked into PGA DFS!

The new season tees off in Napa Valley, California with the Fortinet Championship which will be hosted by the Silverado Resort (North Course). The field strength for these fall events is usually going to be on the weaker side and we won’t see any star-studded fields until we get into the 2024 calendar year. However, even the more casual golf fans should recognize a few names this week with 21 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers on-site. In total, 156 golfers will be teeing it up this week and the standard cut rule will once again be in play – the top 65 golfers (incl. ties) after two rounds will earn their way into the weekend.

Just as a heads up, since the Ryder Cup is taking place in a couple of weeks, after this event, we won’t have any “normal” PGA events until the Sanderson Farms Championship which will begin in the first week of October. So there will be another brief hiatus in that standard PGA DFS action after this week. Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Silverado Resort (North Course)

Par 72 | 7,123 Yards

Greens: Poa/Bentgrass

First Tee: Thursday, Sept. 14th at 9:55 am ET/6:55 am PT (local)

Course Difficulty Rank Last 5 Years: 21st, 32nd, 43rd, 19th, 29th

Winners Last 5 Years:

Max Homa (-16)

Max Homa (-19)

Stewart Cink (-21)

Cameron Champ (-17)

Kevin Tway (-14)

The North Course at the Silverado Resort has been the host course for this event every year since 2014, so there is a solid amount of course history to dig into. Silverado is not an overly tough layout, and for a Par 72, it is very short at just over 7,100 yards on the scorecard, but it can show its teeth at times, especially if the weather is sub-optimal.

With the four Par 5s, there are going to be a high amount of birdie opportunities this week, along with some eagle chances as well. However, several holes on this course can turn out to be a bit tricky and produce some crooked scorecard numbers so some significant back-and-forth shifts on the leaderboard can be expected. There are several course defenses in play here. The poa/bentgrass mixed greens are on the smaller side and have heavy undulation with odd slopes. The tight, difficult-to-hit tree-lined fairways feature plenty of strategically placed bunkers that protect the preferred landing zones. The fairway accuracy at this course in 2022 was just 46.8%, which gives you an idea of just how hard those fairways can be to consistently hit. Fortunately, the rough around this course is not overly penalizing and can sometimes produce better angles to attack the greens if a golfer misses the fairway on the correct side. There are a few holes where a more aggressive play off the tee can pay dividends so longer hitters can look to make some moves in those hole-specific situations. Overall, the golfers most likely to excel this week are the ones who can gain strokes off the tee, have pinpoint short iron and wedge play, consistently hit greens in regulation, roll a reliable putter, and capitalize on the four easy Par 5 holes while separating themselves from the pack by scoring well on the shorter Par 4s.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Looks like we won’t have to dive too deep into the weather this week. All four rounds will be set up very similarly. Winds under 10 mph with no significant gusts, plenty of sunshine, and temps maxing out around mid-80s. Perfect all-around golfing weather if you ask me.

⚖️ Weather Verdict: No wave advantage.

Fortinet Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Birdie or Better % | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 15%

4. Par 4 Average | 15%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

6. Proximity from 100-125 Yards | 10%

7. *Good Drive % | 5%

> *The percentage of time a player hits a good drive.

Good Drive % Definition: On Par 4 and Par 5s, the number of fairways hit, plus the # of Greens or fringe hit in regulation when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot divided by the number of Par 4 and Par 5s played

PGA Tour Stats Page

Fortinet Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Fortinet Championship DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.