By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour will spend one final week out on the West Coast before heading south of the border for the Mexico Open next week and beginning the “Florida Swing” the week after that. The Genesis Invitational lands on the docket this week and is hosted by Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, CA, just outside of Los Angeles. This event draws an extremely strong field every year and, given its “Signature Event” status in 2024, this go-'round is no different. The strength of this field realistically rivals that of a Major tournament. 23 of the world’s top 25-ranked golfers lie within this week’s field, as well as 61 of the top 100. Normally, it wouldn’t be worth noting that the current No. 893rd-ranked golfer in the world is playing, but that player happens to be Tiger Woods! The Big Cat is back on the prowl in his first event of the 2024 calendar year which just adds further excitement to the week.

Typically, this field features 130 players and a normal cut line, but this year will consist of just 71 players. There will still be a 36-hole cut coming after Friday’s round where the top 50 players on the leaderboard (including ties) will advance into the weekend. So, just be aware that, while this is a smaller field similar to what we saw at this year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, it will NOT be a no-cut event. With such a star-studded field, you’ll notice some extremely talented golfers priced way down from where they would normally be. While I prefer a more balanced approach in cash games, feel free to get a bit riskier in your GPPs since over 70% of the field is guaranteed to make the cut.

The Course Preview ⛳

Riviera Country Club

Par 71 | 7,322 Yards

Greens: Poa Annua

Difficulty Rank Last 5 Years: 19th, 21st, 17th, 10th, 10th

Tournament Start: Thursday, February 15th at 10:20 am ET

Winners & Winning Scores L5Years

2023: Jon Rahm (-17)

2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19)

2021: Max Homa (-12)

2020: Adam Scott (-11)

2019: JB Holmes (-14)

Riviera CC has hosted this event every year since 1973 so there is long-standing course history to be found with many players in this week’s field. This is a longer Par 71 setup that extends 7,322 yards. This course tends to provide one of the more difficult challenges on Tour. Riviera CC ranked 19th in overall difficulty in 2023 with an average per-round score of 71.07 (+0.07 over par). It draws many comparisons to Augusta National (The Masters) and you could consider that to be a strong correlating course when researching golfers this week. Riviera CC was redesigned in 2008 and has since favored guys who are longer off the tee (aka ‘bombers’). Shorter hitters aren’t necessarily out of contention here but they will need to be very accurate with their longer irons to stand a chance at a high-end finish. In general, it is best to target golfers who can routinely drive the ball 300+ yards. In this day and age, the majority of PGA golfers are capable of that distance off of the tee and even guys who average around 290 yards will still be able to add a bit more ‘oomph’ on certain holes in order to get it closer to 300+. The narrow tree-lined fairways are some of the hardest to hit on the PGA Tour. Fairway accuracy for the field at this course is usually around 55%… and it even dipped to 51.3% last season – 7.1% below the Tour average.

Riviera CC is unique in that it is one of the few courses on the PGA Tour circuit to feature Kikuyu grass on the fairways, rough, and surrounding the greens. Kikuyu is typically found more often in places like Australia, Asia, and South Africa and it is unique due to its spongy and almost sticky-like nature. It can stop golf balls dead in their tracks and the Kikuyu rough can provide some uncommon but often playable lies (further advantage to bombers). In some instances, when a golfer’s ball finds the rough, it can end up sitting on top of the Kikuyu grass and be positioned almost like a tee shot. Other times, it will be snatched down and buried at the bottom which will force a “grip it and rip it” approach. So while there can be friendly lies in the rough, the preferred strategy would be to stay in the fairway where Kikuyu grass cooperates the most.

There are several doglegged holes in play along with strategically placed fairway bunkers protecting the preferred landing zones. With six of the Par 4 holes stretching over 450 yards, expect long irons to be vital as well. The two most common approach distances will be from 150-175 yards and from 200+ yards out. The greens here are above average in size (around 7,500 sq/ft on average), they feature tricky Poa Annua grass and are well protected by a myriad of menacing bunkers and false fronts. Despite the above-average square footage of the green complexes, the ideal landing zones to get the best looks at birdies are on the smaller side and the greens themselves should run quite firm and fast (between 12-13 on the stimpmeter). This will ultimately force golfers to be on top of their overall short game since many moderately accurate approach shots will still bleed off of the green.

The winning score here has been 11-under or lower for the last eight years, so we can still expect some moderate scoring conditions, especially if the winds cooperate. But make no mistake, Riviera will not be a pushover birdie-fest and golfers are going to have to fight for every birdie they get. Simply scoring par on some of these holes will be considered a win. The margin of victory here has been greater than two strokes only once in the last decade so expect this tournament to easily be one of the most tightly contested and entertaining events we’ve seen up to this point in the season! One final note – course history tends to really come in handy here so golfers who have consistently found success at Riviera CC over the years should be given an extra ‘bump’ within DFS rankings. With all of that said, let’s get a more detailed look at the weather, the stats we should be keying in on, a list of golfers who are popping in my personal model, and this week’s DFS cheat sheet!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

⚖️Weather Verdict: Weather conditions in recent weeks have produced some headaches and even led to a shortened 54-hole event two weeks ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Fortunately, it looks as if golfers will get a reprieve from any significantly poor weather this week. The first three rounds look particularly friendly as there should be very little wind impacts (< 10 mph), no rain, cool temps, and partly cloudy skies. Sunday’s final round has some potential for some early morning rain along with the strongest winds of the week, but even then, we’re only talking about 10-15 mph winds, so it’s nothing to really fret over. There is a storm system that looks to move in on Monday which will bring heavy rains and 20 mph winds with 30+ mph gusts. But, as long as the forecast keeps that weather at bay until Monday, then this tournament should go unaffected. No tee time advantages to be had this week!

Genesis Invitational Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 10%

5. Good Drive % | 10%

6. Proximity from 150-175 Yards | 10%

7. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Genesis Invitational DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Genesis Invitational DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.