By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

We enter into one of the more unique weeks on the PGA Tour circuit. For the second time since the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour created an alliance in 2020, the two tours will come together to co-sanction an event. The Scottish Open became the first co-sanctioned tournament last season and is back again at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Each tour will supply 75 of its top players. With a few other golfers playing on special exemption status, that will bring the overall field up to 156 players. The 151st Open Championship is one week away and many top golfers have chosen to make their way across the pond a week early in preparation. As a result, this event will boast a strong field that is headlined by eight of the top 10 ranked golfers in the world and 58 of the top 100. The standard PGA cut rule will be in effect with the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes earning passageway into weekend play. Golfers will be competing for a slice of the $9 million purse and some valuable FedEx Cup points are also up for grabs. There are a few spots still available for next week’s Open Championship for golfers who are not already qualified. Needless to say, there is plenty to play for this week!

Note: Remember that this event will start earlier than usual. DFS contests will lock with the first tee time at 2:15 am ET on Thursday “morning.”

The Course Preview ⛳

The Renaissance Club

Par 70 | 7,237 Yards

Greens: Fescue

Comp Courses: Royal Portrush, Kiawah Island (Ocean), Shinnecock Hills

2022 Cut Line: +3

2022 Winner: Xander Schauffele (-7)

The Renaissance Club has been home to the Scottish Open for each of the previous four years so there will be a mix of players with a few years of course experience while others will be making their competitive debut here. Since this wasn’t an official PGA event prior to 2022, many of the DPWT golfers will tend to have an edge over the PGA golfers in the course history department. Some may also remember this course playing as a Par 71 last season but the former Par 5 7th hole has been shortened to around 500 yards to now play as a long Par 4.

The layout of the Renaissance Club falls under the category of a parklands-style links course. It features an unusual hole distribution for a Par 70 with ten Par 4s, three Par 5s, and five Par 3s. Fescue grass is featured from tee to green and the fairways are surrounded by long rough that will measure between three and five inches. While the rough can look menacing, it’s more important to be long off of the tee than accurate — missed fairways will not be extremely detrimental in the long run (for many golfers). Water does not pose a threat here but the 83 bunkers scattered throughout the grounds will provide a notable layer of defense. The green complexes are massive and possess some noticeable undulation. They can be difficult to hold on approach with any consistency but when it comes to the actual green speeds, they are expected to run at moderate speeds, slower than the greens we typically see on the PGA Tour.

Winning scores over the last four years have ranged from 7-under (2022) to 22-under (2019). In general, this is a scorable course that can be overpowered, but it is highly sensitive to winds due to its coastal location. As long as wind speeds stay at moderate to slower speeds, golfers should have no major problems sinking some birdies, especially the golfers who possess an elite driver. However, it does look like the forecast will be offering up a variety of conditions for golfers to contend with ranging from calm conditions to consistently high winds reaching 25+ mph sustained and 35+ mph gusts. Due to those winds kicking up at times and affecting approach shots, it’s probably wise to consider golfers who are proficient around the greens as well. This will be an excellent warm-up for golfers competing at Royal Liverpool next week and building DFS lineups with this talent-rich field that includes some less familiar DPWT names should be a fun time! Good luck this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Sustained winds generally in the 10-15 mph range all day with gusts around 20 mph.

Friday: Calmer conditions in the morning with mostly 5-10 mph winds. The afternoon picks up to 15+ mph with strong gusts in the 20-30 mph range. The best chance for rain will come in the morning and late afternoon hours.

Weekend: Saturday won’t be a cakewalk with 15 mph winds all day with 20-25 mph gusts. Sunday looks to be the real test, however. If the current forecast holds, things start out relatively calm in the morning but quickly pick up around midday to 20+ mph sustained wind speeds with upwards of 35 mph gusts!

⚖️Weather Verdict: We can probably look to give a slight bump to the PM/AM golfers since Friday morning features the calmest conditions of the week. It’s nothing significant, but there’s enough of an edge that it’s worth noting. Keep an eye on the updated forecasts in case there are any significant changes.

The Scottish Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

6. Driving Distance| 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Due to all of the DP World Tour players competing this week, roughly half of the field does not have any (or enough) PGA rounds played to qualify for strokes gained data. This will certainly cause my player model to have a bias towards the PGA Tour regulars so keep that in mind when looking at any stat-related info/rankings in this newsletter.

Genesis Scottish Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting ten golfers who should be on your radar for the Scottish Open.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $11.6k, FD: $12.4k

Odds: 7/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #1

Overall Model Rank: #1

Scheffler took a well-deserved two-plus week break from the PGA Tour grind but he’s back in the field and is instantly back on the DFS radar. No one can match Scheffler’s consistency this season. He has six consecutive top-five finishes and still has not finished worse than 12th in 18 consecutive starts dating back to last October. Scheffler missed the cut here in 2022 but that won’t sway me off of him this week. He notched a respectable 12th place finish here in 2021 and heads into this event ranking 3rd or better in five of the six key stats -- the only outlier being driving distance, in which Scheffler ranks 9th in this field (not including the DPWT golfers). He’s a guy we can trust in windy conditions and the value to be had within this field makes spending up for Scheffler quite easy this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k

Odds: 22/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #28

Overall Model Rank: #12

We haven’t seen Fitzpatrick play his best golf this season but he has snagged three top-20 finishes in his last four starts and is not too far removed from his victory at the RBC Heritage in mid-April. While course history is not extensive for anyone in this event, if you were to pinpoint one golfer competing this week as the top “course horse” it would probably have to be Fitz. He’s competed at this course all four years, making the cut on each occasion, and he came away with a runner-up finish in 2021, a 6th place finish last year, and finished 14th in 2019. Fitzpatrick has some deeply rooted history with the DP World Tour and the Englishman should be more comfortable at this track, with its windy conditions, than just about anyone else in the field.

Tommy Fleetwood | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k

Odds: 20/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #9

Fleetwood has been teetering on his breakthrough victory for months now and has four top-five finishes in his previous 10 starts, including a runner-up finish at the Canadian Open. His three previous starts at The Renaissance Club have produced 2nd, 4th, and 26th place results and the Englishman should be very comfortable in the windy conditions that golfers will take on this week. Fleetwood possesses one of the best all-around tee-to-green games in golf (4th in SG: T2G) and he is an elite player around the greens. He’s a great bet to land a top-10 finish this week and could very well be in contention on Sunday.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $9k, FD: $10.1k

Odds: 40/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #6

Overall Model Rank: #6

Clark has undoubtedly been one of the biggest surprises of the season on the PGA Tour. He came into the 2022-23 season ranked 193rd in the world and thanks to a slew of high-end finishes, highlighted by a pair of victories at the Wells Fargo Championship and U.S. Open, he now sits as the world’s 11th-ranked golfer. He’s very clearly a strong course fit, evidenced by his 16th-place finish at last year’s Scottish Open, which came prior to seeing his game really heat up. Clark has one of the biggest drivers in the field, he’s made massive improvements to his around-the-green play, wreaks havoc on Par 5s, drops plenty of birdies, and carries a reliable putter. He has missed just one cut in his last 19 starts and makes for a great target in all formats.

Ludvig Aberg | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k

Odds: 50/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Aberg is one of the trendiest names in the realm of PGA DFS lately and he’s constantly showing off why he deserves the hype. He has barely cracked the surface on his PGA Tour career but has made all six of his PGA cuts this season, including four top-25 results, highlighted by a 4th place finish at last week’s John Deere Classic where he picked up +7.83 SG: Ball Striking (ranked 2nd on the week). The quick turnaround to this tournament, which brings a major time zone shift to players who competed at the JDC last week, will probably be the only reason Aberg won’t break into cash game viability. But he’s been very impressive with the driver and is constantly showing improvements in other areas of his game.

Alexander Bjork | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 125/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

The big wrinkle in this week’s tournament will be the inclusion of dozens of DP World Tour golfers who will make up roughly half of the field. Many of these DPWT guys will fly under the radar in DFS primarily due to the unfamiliarity that most American golf fans have with these guys. We also don’t have any PGA stats to easily look to in any fancy-schmancy DFS models. But Alexander Bjork should be one of the DPWT players on your radar this week. The Swede has been crushing it across the pond with 14-of-14 made cuts this year with six top-10 finishes in his last seven starts! He ranks 1st on the DPWT in scoring average, 3rd in SG: Total, 3rd in SG: Approach, and 9th in SG: Putting. While he did not compete here last year, he made all three cuts at The Renaissance Club between 2019 and 2021, including a 19th-place finish in 2020 and a solid 26th-place finish in 2021. There is plenty of top-25 upside from Bjork this week.

Jordan L. Smith | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 125/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Smith is another DPWT guy who won’t be as popular as the aforementioned Bjork, but he carries identical odds to win and brings some intriguing upside to the table. The putter has been his main nemesis but he’s a very sharp iron player who has gained nearly 20 strokes on approach across his last four tournaments. Smith made an appearance at last month’s U.S. Open and landed an admirable T-20 finish. Heading into this week, he has made nine of his last 11 cuts worldwide, which includes six top-25 finishes. Smith also finished 24th here at last year’s Scottish Open.

Yannik Paul | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 200/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Paul won’t carry the same level of consistency as some of his other similarly-priced DPWT peers but he’s shown a penchant for upside, landing five finishes of 8th or better within his last 10 worldwide starts. Over on the DPWT, he ranks 16th in scoring average, 6th in SG: Total, and 7th in SG: Approach. Paul’s short game is what will likely make or break his tournament this week but if he can work some magic around the greens and sink some moderately difficult putts, this could be another week where he lands near the top end of the leaderboard and massively pays off his DFS price tags.

Daniel Hillier | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.8k

Odds: 225/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Hillier hasn’t necessarily been a consistent golfer over on the DWPT this season but he’s one of the hottest golfers heading into this week. Over his last four starts, he has landed a win at the British Masters, a T-3 at the BMW International Open, and a T-5 at the KLM Open. He’s far from a safe option but if his game stays hot, he could return major value on his low DFS price tags.

Romaine Langasque | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 250/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

We’ll spotlight one more affordable DPWT play here with Langasque. He’s a guy who has proven that he can overpower this golf course with a 3rd place finish at The Renaissance Club back in 2019. His average driving distance of 315.15 yards ranks him 18th over on the DPWT and he’s 25th in SG: Around the Greens. The iron play and putter will be the two parts of his game that he’ll need to get going if he hopes to put together four complete rounds. But he does head into this week on the heels of nine consecutive made cuts worldwide, including four top-10s in that span. And while it wasn’t a flashy finish, one of his recently made cuts came at the U.S. Open last month where he finished 54th.

Genesis Scottish Open DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.