A daunting challenge awaits golfers this week as PGA Tour pros prepare to tackle one of the most difficult courses on the entire circuit... the Champions Course at PGA National which plays host to The Honda Classic tournament.

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour bids farewell to the West Coast and travels east where the “Florida Swing” will commence. The next four upcoming events will be hosted in the Sunshine State (excluding the Puerto Rico open which is the alternate event hosted in a couple of weeks alongside the Arnold Palmer Invitational). The Florida Swing is an exciting, yet challenging stretch of golf and it will kick off in Palm Beach Gardens, FL where the Champions Course at PGA National will play host to The Honda Classic for the 17th consecutive year. Be sure to stay mindful of the coastal shift, as the first tee times are now going to be set for 6:50 am ET -- DFS contests will of course lock at the same time.

Following last week’s Genesis Invitational, which had an elite but smaller field, this tournament will revert back to a more standard-sized field with 144 players on site. The usual cut rule is once again in play as well so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will advance to play the final two rounds on the weekend. Only three of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world are on site this week so there is a major dip in top-end talent compared to last week. However, there are still plenty of recognizable names teeing up with 33 of the top 150 ranked golfers on location. Given the grueling nature of the PGA National Champions Course, the quick transition from the West to the East Coast, and a pair of upcoming marquee events that boast huge purses (Arnold Palmer Invitational & THE PLAYERS Championship), it is not surprising to see that many top golfers have elected to skip out on this event. Regardless, this should be a fun tournament to watch and golfers will be truly tested this week. It’s a great week to get familiar with some less-recognizable names as well.

The Course Preview ⛳

PGA National (Champions Course)

Par 70 | 7,125 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Style: Parkland

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 7th, 6th, 3rd, 5th, 2nd

Cut Line Last 5 Years: Even, +1, +3, +2, +5

The PGA National Champions Course is a Par 70 that checks in at a moderate distance of 7,125 yards. The difficulty of this course cannot be understated. Since PGA National began hosting this event in 2007, it has ranked among the top 10 toughest courses on the PGA Tour circuit in 13 out of 16 years. Last year, PGA National ranked as the 7th most difficult course and the scoring average was 71.34 (+1.34 over par). Since the PGA National Champions Course began hosting the Honda Classic, the winning score has never been lower than 13-under – and more often than not, the winning score has settled in the single digits under par. Unsurprisingly, most sportsbooks have the winning score O/U set at -9.5 this week.

There is an infamous three-hole stretch at the PGA National Champions Course, known as The Bear Trap, which covers holes No. 15, No. 16, and No. 17. The Bear Trap annually plays as one of the hardest three-hole stretches on the entire PGA Tour. Holes No. 5, No. 6, and No. 7 on the front nine are an extremely challenging set of holes as well and it is not uncommon for those three holes to actually play tougher than The Bear Trap. If golfers can grind out and play those six grueling holes at, or close to, even par, they will gain a massive edge on the field. When you’re following along with your golfers on TV coverage or via ShotTracker, keep your jaw, fists, and whatever else clinched once they approach both of those three-hole stretches!

The rough here is thick and tough to play out of. Hazards are a heavy course defense and they lurk around nearly every corner of PGA National. Water will come into play on 15 holes and the course features almost 100 sand traps. On top of the standard course hazards, wind conditions can often add to PGA National’s formidable nature. Looking at the current forecast, winds could certainly get a touch dicey out there, mostly on Thursday’s opening round, but golfers should be able to avoid super difficult wind conditions this week. Driving distance isn’t really important at PGA National and we can expect many golfers to club down off of the tee in order to avoid landing their ball in the water or losing it in the wind and landing in the rough, in a bunker, or in one of the dicier areas which surround the fairways. Typically, drives at PGA National will average only around 275 yards in distance which is well below the PGA Tour average. Approach shots will once again be crucial this week and crafty iron play will be essential. While golfers will certainly need to take advantage of the Par 5s, there are only two Par 5s on this Par 70 setup, so targeting strong Par 4 scorers makes a great deal of sense. Golfers who excel at avoiding bogeys should also be targeted considering the winning score is very likely to end in the single digits under par and this event has never turned into anything remotely resembling a “birdie fest.” On many holes, particularly on those two aforementioned three-hole stretches, simply scoring a par will feel like scoring a birdie at times. One more significant change for golfers heading into The Honda Classic is the fact that they’ll be transitioning to Bermuda greens. Bermuda grass can be expected to run firmer and faster than Poa Annua greens, which have been in play on many of the recent West Coast courses. Also, while these greens aren’t small by any means (~7,000 avg sq/ft), the greens hit in regulation percentage (GIR%) tends to be among the lowest of any course on the PGA Tour so it may be wise to look out for golfers who either provide a high GIR% or are exceptional scramblers.

There are plenty of speed bumps and surprises ahead for golfers at PGA National this week but it should be another exciting event to tune into! Building DFS lineups for this event may feel more challenging than in previous weeks but if you’re willing to put in a little extra research, that should go a long way. Go into this tournament with the mindset that there will be no “safe” plays on the board and don’t be afraid to fade any particular golfer who projects for high ownership. Expect carnage to run rampant from the time golfers tee off on Thursday morning until the final putt drops on Sunday evening. Finally, due to the NBA All-Star Break, I know there may be some folks looking to dabble in other sports in the meantime. Feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat if you’re new to PGA DFS and have any questions! Best of luck this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Weather Verdict: The current forecast doesn’t provide any major cause for concern. The windiest day of the tournament looks to come during Thursday’s opening round where sustained winds will be around 10-12 mph throughout the day with slightly stronger gusts. Temps will get into the upper 70s and low 80s, at times, and there is no rain expected. Overall, there doesn’t appear to be any sort of wave advantage so weather should not factor into DFS decision-making. As always, run a final forecast check on Wednesday night in case of any significant changes.

The Honda Classic Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

4. Greens in Regulation Percentage | 10%

5. Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Honda Classic Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Honda Classic PGA DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.