By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The Florida Swing has come to a close, and the PGA TOUR will now travel to the Lone Star State, where Memorial Park Golf Course will play host to the Texas Children’s Houston Open. The Houston Open has seen multiple name changes, a venue shift, and now a date change, yet it has remained a staple on the TOUR schedule for years. After a three-year stint in the fall, this event returned to its late March slot before the Masters last season. This event will be held at Memorial Park Golf Course for the fifth consecutive year. The field will consist of around 150 golfers with the usual 36-hole cut rule in play -- the top 65 (including ties) after Friday’s round will qualify for the weekend. This isn’t a super-loaded field, with just 20 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world teeing it up, and 51 of the top 100. However, there are a pair of top dogs that are easily the class of this field. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will be on site as a 4-to-1 favorite to win in his home state of Texas, and he’ll be joined by world No. 2 Rory McIlroy, fresh off of his PLAYERS Championship victory two weeks ago. With the Masters now just two weeks away, this will be one of the final opportunities for golfers to fine-tune their game, or meet the qualifications, for the first Major of the year!

The Course Preview ⛳

Memorial Park Golf Club

Par 70 | 7,412 Yards

Greens: Poa Trivialis Overseed

Memorial Park Golf Club is a lengthy Par 70 setup stretching 7,412 yards, making it one of the longest Par 70 courses on the PGA TOUR. This venue will be hosting its fifth edition of the Houston Open since its 2019 redesign by golf course architect Tom Doak, with consultation from former PGA TOUR pro Brooks Koepka. Before that, Memorial Park hadn’t been part of the PGA TOUR rotation since 1963. The event was absent from the schedule in 2023 after hosting a fall tournament in 2022, but it has now returned to a late March slot, and sets up as an important stop for players preparing for the first major of the season.

Memorial Park has proven to be a formidable challenge in its brief history on TOUR. It has ranked as the 12th (2024), 13th (2022), 9th (2021), and 12th (2020) most difficult course on the PGA TOUR circuit. The cut line has not fallen below even par in any of those years, and the course has produced just 17 total players finishing at 10-under or better across those four events. Any round of 68 or lower here will be an excellent score.

This is a nontraditional Par 70 layout as it will feature five Par 3s and three Par 5s. The course is a parkland-style design with tree-lined fairways, similar to Augusta National, though it presents its own unique set of challenges. The fairways are of average width, but hitting them consistently is tough. Driving accuracy at Memorial Park has been lower than the TOUR average (51.7% in 2024), with players hitting around 7-8% fewer fairways than usual. The rough, while not the tallest at approximately 3 inches, can be thick and punishing. Water is in play on four holes, and natural hazards, including ravines, add to the challenge. While bunkers are limited—only 19 in total—the greens are well-protected through elevation changes, false fronts, and tricky run-off areas.

Due to its length, Memorial Park is a driver-heavy course where bombers tend to have a built-in advantage. Driving Distance has exceeded 295 yards on average in past editions (302.0 yards/drive in 2024), and many of the top finishers have excelled off the tee. Tony Finau, the 2022 champion, led the field in Good Drive % and gained over 4.0 strokes off the tee, while Jason Kokrak (2021 winner) leaned on elite ball-striking, gaining 6.1 strokes on approach. While distance is valuable, shorter hitters can still contend by excelling in long iron play and scrambling.

Around-the-green play has been another key factor here. Carlos Ortiz gained 6.1 strokes Around the Green en route to victory in 2020, and 2024 winner Stephan Jaeger gained an impressive 9.7 strokes combined between ATG and Putting while remaining only slightly positive in ball-striking. The greens, overseeded with Poa Trivialis, are large, averaging about 7,000 square feet, but they feature plenty of undulation and run-offs that make scrambling crucial.

A strong comparison for Memorial Park is the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, which was, of course, the host course for last week’s Valspar Championship and also features five Par 3s and three Par 5s. Both courses emphasize long-iron play, require sharp scrambling, and have firm, challenging greens. Players who have thrived at Copperhead have also seen quite a bit of success at Memorial Park.

Par 5 scoring is another key to success here. The three Par 5s tend to be the easiest holes on the course and must be taken advantage of, as birdie chances on the longer Par 4s can be scarce. Six of the Par 4s at Memorial Park exceed 450 yards, putting a premium on mid-to-long iron approach shots from 175+ yards.

All in all, Memorial Park provides a well-rounded test for players, rewarding elite drivers while also demanding sharp scrambling and strong putting. Expect another challenging setup, where avoiding bogeys and capitalizing on the few true scoring opportunities will be the keys to contending. Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Note: By Wednesday, you’ll be able to view a more detailed forecast for both Thursday & Friday by clicking this link.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Expect challenging conditions this week with strong winds, especially Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, where gusts could exceed 20 MPH. Rain is also in the forecast, which may soften the course but also add length (to an already long course) with cool air and wet rough. The weekend looks drier but still breezy, mirroring last week’s tough setup. Wave advantages are uncertain due to potential stoppages being a real possibility, but at the time of this writing (Tuesday evening), the Thursday AM/Friday PM group may see the better overall draw. However, given the unpredictability, diversifying wave exposure is probably the smart play. Make sure you run some final weather checks as we get closer to Thursday’s opening round.

🏌️‍♂️ Houston Open Tee Times 🏌️‍♂️

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

5. Driving Distance | 10%

6. Par 5 Birdie or Better %| 10%

7. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity from 200+ Yards) | 10%

8. Bogey Avoidance | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Houston Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Houston Open DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.