By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels to Silvis, Illinois for the 2025 John Deere Classic which will be hosted by TPC Deere Run. With the Scottish Open coming up next week and the Open Championship (aka The British Open) following the week after, much of the world’s top golf talent is already across the pond adjusting to the time zone change and preparing for those more prestigious tournaments.

With that in mind, you’ll notice a weaker field is in play for the JDC with only 34 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world in attendance. This isn’t exactly anyone’s favorite PGA event to watch but, despite the lack of star power, this event almost always provides plenty of excitement for golf fans who decide to tune in. Much like last week’s Rocket Classic, this is a high-scoring event and offers some guys who aren’t already qualified for the Open Championship a final chance to meet the qualifications. Plenty of golfers notch their first career PGA Tour win here as well. In the past, we’ve seen young stars like Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im establish themselves with strong finishes here at the JDC. Overall, this is a full-field event with 156 players and the standard cut line is in play -- the top 65 (and ties) will make it through to play on the weekend. Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Deere Run

Par 71 | 7,268 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty L5 Years: 39th, 40th, 34th, 41st, 35th

Cut Line L5 Years: -5, -4, -3, -4, -3

Winning Score (Last 5 Years): -28, -21, -21, -19, -21

First Tee: Thursday, July 3rd at 7:45 a.m. ET

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 layout that stretches just under 7,300 yards, features pure Bentgrass greens and wide, welcoming fairways bordered by Kentucky bluegrass rough. The course flows through a natural Midwestern setting and stands out as one of the more visually appealing stops on TOUR — it’s a venue free of housing and real estate distractions. Fairways here are extremely easy to find, with field-wide accuracy rates often hovering around 70%. The large, moderately sloped greens roll around 11.5 on the stimpmeter and reward confident putters. From top to bottom, this track sets up as one of the PGA TOUR’s most scorable venues, and the leaderboard typically reflects that. Since 2010, the winning score has averaged right around 22-under, and last year, Davis Thompson shattered the tournament record by finishing at 28-under-par.

While Par 4 scoring will still matter plenty — as it does most weeks — strong Par 5 play is a near necessity here. There are only three of them, but they’re straightforward and absolutely must be taken advantage of by anyone hoping to contend. Six of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top 10 in Par 5 scoring for the week, and failure to capitalize on these holes will cause players to tumble down the leaderboard. The Par 4s are more manageable than usual for a Par 71 layout, with seven of them measuring under 450 yards, further emphasizing the importance of short-iron precision over raw power off the tee.

This isn’t a week where bombers tend to separate. Driving distance is far less predictive here than at most stops on TOUR. While someone like Davis Thompson may fit the “big hitter” mold, the two winners prior — Sepp Straka and J.T. Poston — both relied on accuracy over power and gained more than 2.5 strokes off the tee by keeping the ball in play and setting up clean approach looks. Roughly 40% of approach shots come from inside 150 yards, so wedge play and short-iron precision will be at a premium.

One of the big differentiators at Deere Run is putting. These are some of the purest Bentgrass greens players will see all season, and it shows in the numbers. While strong iron play opens the door, the golfers who actually break through tend to be those who spike with the putter and convert mid-range chances at a high clip.

All in all, this is a week where lesser-known players can thrive and break out — and where course familiarity and streaky form with the putter can take center stage. I don’t blame anyone for taking a lighter approach to DFS volume with a weaker field on tap, but these are the kinds of events where sharp pivots and early exposure to up-and-coming names can really pay off long term. Enjoy the show from Silvis, and here’s to a profitable and fun July 4th weekend!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Overall, the first two days look solid weather-wise. Thursday AM is the calmest with near-zero wind; Thursday PM stays playable with just a small chance of a shower. Friday AM starts light but gets breezier by late morning. Friday PM brings the windiest stretch of the opening rounds with 10+ mph sustained and stronger gusts.

Weekend outlook: Saturday is shaping up to be the windiest day with gusts around 25 mph, especially in the afternoon. Sunday carries the best chance of rain.

⚖️Weather Verdict: It's a mild lean to a Thursday PM / Friday AM wave if you want to avoid the strongest winds. Not a huge weather edge, but enough to factor in.

John Deere Classic Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better %| 15%

5. Short Iron Accuracy (Proximity from 100-150 Yards) | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

John Deere Classic DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

🚜 John Deere Classic DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.