By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour travels to Silvis, Illinois for the 2024 John Deere Classic which will be hosted by TPC Deere Run. With the Scottish Open coming up next week and the Open Championship (aka The British Open) following the week after, much of the world’s top golf talent is across the pond adjusting to the time zone change and preparing for those more prestigious tournaments.

With that in mind, you’ll notice a weak field is in play for the JDC. Only 33 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world are in attendance, with the highest-ranking golfer being reigning JDC champ and world No. 24 Sepp Straka. This isn’t exactly anyone’s favorite PGA event to watch but, despite the lack of star power, this event almost always provides plenty of excitement for golf fans who decide to tune in. Much like last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, this is a high-scoring event and offers some guys who aren’t already qualified for the Open Championship a final chance to meet the qualifications. Plenty of golfers notch their first career PGA Tour win here as well. In the past, we’ve seen young stars like Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im establish themselves with strong finishes here at the JDC. Overall, this is a full-field event with 156 players and, as usual, the top 65 (and ties) will make it through to play on the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Deere Run

Par 71 - 7,268 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty (Last 5 Years*): 36th, 34th, 41st, 35th, 46th

Cut Line (Last 5 Years*): -4, -3, -4, -3, -3

Winning Score (Last 5 Years*): -21, -21, -19, -21, -27

First Tee: Thursday, July 4th at 7:45 a.m. ET

*Note: Course/event was not played in 2020 after being postponed due to COVID-19

TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that stretches just under 7,300 yards and contains bentgrass greens & fairways that are surrounded by Kentucky bluegrass rough. It is a very scenic and naturally focused course that is devoid of any real estate. The fairways are some of the easiest on TOUR to hit and each year the fairway accuracy sits at around a 70% field average. The greens are large, carry some slope and undulation, and will run with a moderate pace at about an 11.5 on the stimpmeter. We will most definitely see plenty of scoring since TPC Deere Run profiles as a big-time birdie fest track and annually ranks as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. Dating back to 2010, the average winning score comes in right around 22-under par!

While Par 4 scoring will remain a key stat as it is in many weeks, Par 5 scoring will be almost equally as important as it should account for close to a third of DFS scoring in this event. As usual, accurate approach shots will be vital to get into a better scoring position, and right around 40% of approaches will come in under 150 yards, making a strong wedge game a must. Many golfers will have plenty of course history to look back on as well, which is always a helpful bonus. Despite the lack of big names within this field, TPC Deere Run is a beautiful course to take in and often provides plenty of drama and close finishes down the stretch of the final Sunday round. I would give zero criticism if you choose to go light on your DFS bankroll for this event or skip it altogether. But I also believe it is important to at least pay attention to these weak field events. Many of the lesser-known golfers in play this week will be major players on the PGA Tour one day down the road so it’s helpful to get familiar with them early on! Enjoy the tournament and here’s to a profitable July 4th weekend!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Light 5 mph winds. Cloudy with a low-end chance of some sprinkles.

Thursday PM: Winds pick up slightly, but only max out around 10 mph. Partly sunny with some rain possible in the early afternoon.

Friday AM: 10 mph sustained winds to begin the day, picking up to 15 mph closer to midday. Gusts will be noticeable, in the 20-25 mph range.

Friday PM: 15+ mph sustained winds with gusts around 25 mph.

Weekend: A little gusty on Saturday but winds will generally hang around 10 mph. Sunday is fairly similar overall, however, rain chances will also pick up over the final round.

⚖️Weather Verdict: It’s not a major advantage but, if the current forecast holds, the PM/AM wave should draw more favorable conditions overall since those golfers will avoid the windiest conditions that arrive Friday afternoon. This is one of those edges that I would mostly use as a tiebreaker between two similar golfers who are set up in opposite waves -- the PM/AM golfer getting the nod.

John Deere Classic Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better %| 15%

5. Short Iron Accuracy (Proximity from 100-150 Yards) | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

John Deere Classic DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

John Deere Classic DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.