By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

After taking a week off during last week’s Zurich Classic team competition, we’re back with a traditional stroke play event! The PGA Tour will head south of the border for the Mexico Open set to tee off at Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico. This was a brand new event added to the calendar last year. Very few big names made the trip down to Mexico to play this event in 2022 and the same will be true this year. While we do have world No. 1 and defending Mexico Open champion Jon Rahm in attendance, in total, only eight of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world will be teeing it up this week. So we’ll have to dig into some of the lesser-known golfers to find some DFS success but it’s a challenge worth taking! The usual cut rule will be in play so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after the first two rounds will qualify for the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Vidanta Vallarta

Par 71 | 7,456 Yards

Greens: Paspalum

Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman-designed course that will be making its appearance on the PGA Tour for just the second time. It normally plays as a Par 73 for amateurs and features six Par 5s, but the course will be toughened up for the pros this week and two of those Par 5s will be converted into Par 4s. Paspalum grass, which is a common grass type in tropical climates, will be featured from tee to green. Other Greg Norman-designed courses on the PGA Tour that also feature paspalum greens and could be used as comp courses include El Camaleon (Mayakoba) and TPC San Antonio (Valero).

This track is already the sixth-longest course on the PGA Tour and its low sea level elevation will make it play even longer. The average approach distance at last year’s Mexico Open was just over 200 yards, which was easily the longest average approach distance of any course last season. Two of the four Par 5s check in at over 600 yards, there are a couple of 200+ yard Par 3s, and a 297-yard drivable Par 4, which should be entertaining to watch golfers attack. Vidanta Vallarta does not feature many trees and it’s simply a wide-open course layout with larger-than-average fairways and greens. Along with its length, the primary course defenses will be water hazards, which are in play on more than half of the holes, and deep concaved sand bunkers. Since this course rests on the edge of the Pacific Ocean, the wind could also be considered a main course defense if it were to ever pick up, but right now it’s looking like that won’t be much of an issue this week.

Even without an abundance of premier PGA talent in this field and the adjustments made to turn this from a Par 73 into a Par 71, we should expect plenty of scoring this week. Jon Rahm won last year with a score of 17-under and 23 golfers cracked double-digits under par. It’s all about distance this week -- long hitters off the tee and/or accurate long iron players. From there, whoever gets hot with the putter will be in for a great week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

⚖️Weather Verdict: We’re looking at extremely similar conditions for all four rounds of this tournament so no need to dive too much into the weather. It’s going to be a warm one with temps in the high-80s and low-90s all week but, other than that, there is no threat of rain, and very little wind to speak of. Wind speeds will max out around 10 mph around midday and into the afternoon each day which is nothing that a professional golfer could not handle.

Mexico Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

3. Driving Distance | 15%

4. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Mexico Open Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Mexico Open DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.