By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour will head south of the border for the Mexico Open which is set to tee off at Vidanta Vallarta in Vallarta, Mexico. This was a brand new event added to the calendar in 2022. There have not been many big names that have made the trip down to Mexico to play this event in each of the last three seasons and the same will be true this year. The highest-ranking golfer in this 132-man field is World No. 29 Aaron Rai. In total, only 26 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world will be teeing it up this week. We’ll have to dig into some lesser-known golfers to find some DFS success but it’s a challenge worth taking! The usual cut rule will be in play so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after the first two rounds will qualify for the weekend.

The Course Preview ⛳

Vidanta Vallarta

Par 71 | 7,456 Yards

Greens: Paspalum

Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman-designed course that will be making its appearance on the PGA Tour for the fourth year in a row. It normally plays as a Par 73 for amateurs and features six Par 5s, but the course will be toughened up for the pros this week and two of those Par 5s will be converted into lengthy Par 4s. Paspalum grass, which is a common grass type in tropical climates, will be featured from tee to green.

This track is already the sixth-longest course on the PGA Tour and its low sea level elevation will cause it to play even longer. The average approach distance at last year’s Mexico Open was just over 200 yards, which was easily the longest average approach distance of any course last season. Two of the four Par 5s check in at over 600 yards, there are a couple of 200+ yard Par 3s, and a 297-yard drivable Par 4, which should be entertaining to watch golfers attack. Vidanta Vallarta does not feature many trees and it’s simply a wide-open course layout with fairways that average 41 yards in width (+7.4 yards wider than PGA average) and large greens. Aside from its length, the primary course defenses will be water hazards, which are in play on more than half of the holes, and deep concaved sand bunkers. Since this course rests on the edge of the Pacific Ocean, the wind could also be considered a main course defense if it were to ever pick up, but right now it’s looking like that won’t be much of an issue this week.

Even without an abundance of premier PGA talent in this field and the adjustments made to turn this from a Par 73 into a Par 71, we should expect a solid amount of scoring this week. Over the three previous seasons, winning scores have landed at 19-under (Jake Knapp, 2024), 24-under (Tony Finau, 2023), and 17-under (Jon Rahm, 2022). At least 23 golfers have finished the week in the double digits under par in all three years of this tournament as well. It’s all about distance this week -- long hitters off the tee and/or accurate long iron players. From there, whoever gets hot with the putter will be in for a great week! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Ideal conditions all week with light winds and no rain. Expect hot afternoons with highs around 80-90°F. No clear advantage between tee-time waves.

Mexico Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

3. Driving Distance | 15%

4. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Mexico Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Mexico Open DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.