By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Welcome to one of the most exciting weeks in golf! It’s time for the world's best to compete at The PLAYERS Championship hosted by TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida! Widely regarded as golf’s unofficial “Fifth Major,“ this event annually boasts what is considered to be the strongest field we’ll see compete across the entire season. Unlike typical Majors, there are no amateur invites sent out and no “over the hill” veterans who receive a grandfathered invite for winning this event decades ago. Only current PGA Tour cardholders and a few select international players and qualifiers are eligible to receive an invite to The PLAYERS Championship. 14 of the world’s top 15 ranked golfers, and 44 of the top 50, will be teeing up this week. They’ll be competing for what is now the largest purse in PGA history – $25 million with a record $4.5 million going to the winner. Also, exactly like a Major, there are 600 FedEx Cup points up for grabs. This is a large field event featuring 144 golfers in total and the typical 36-hole cut rule applies (top 65 plus ties make the weekend). The PLAYERS Championship has been held at TPC Sawgrass every year since 1982 and the course was designed specifically for this tournament. Since the PGA realigned the schedule a few years ago, this will be only the fifth year since 2006 in which The PLAYERS has taken place in March as opposed to its former mid-May competition date.

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Sawgrass

Par 72 | 7,256 Yards

Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded)

Course Type: TPC

*Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 16th, 23rd, 29th, 5th, 19th

*Cut Line Last 5 Years: +2, Even, -1, -1, +2

*Data excluded from 2020 since only one round was played before the tournament was canceled due to COVID.

TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 set-up that checks in at a moderate length of 7,256 yards. This is a Pete Dye-designed course, which means there is an intention to bully and intimidate golfers off of the tee. Golfers will be forced to make “risk versus reward” decisions and choose the correct lines and landing zones in order to set up more advantageous looks on approach. Errant shots can be very punishing with hazards and tricky lies looming around every corner of this course. In 2022, golfers averaged 72.62 strokes per round (+0.62 over par) at TPC Sawgrass. The fairways are tight and tree-lined and the TifEagle bermudagrass greens (overseeded with Poa and bentgrass) are smaller than PGA Tour average and should run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter). There are also 17 water hazards along with 88 sand traps to contend with. Wind can also become a primary course defense if it kicks up at any point. TPC Sawgrass is also home to one of the most iconic holes in golf -- the Par 3 No. 17 “Island Green” that sees some packed crowds and a ton of TV coverage which places immense pressure on every swing golfers will take there. However, the closing Par 4 No. 18 is truly the defining hole of TPC Sawgrass… at least in the minds of most players and golf analysts. Water lines the entire 18th hole and it’s simply a great example of a Pete Dye design that forces golfers to be at the top of their game both mechanically and mentally. The No. 17 and No. 18 holes are largely considered to be the best two-hole finishing stretch of any course on the entire PGA Tour circuit.

TPC Sawgrass is a true second-shot course – meaning it is more important what a golfer does with their approach shots rather than what they do off the tee. Approach shot accuracy is always extraordinarily crucial, but perhaps even more so this week. Ever since this tournament moved to March, most approach shots have come from the 125-175 range, so mid-iron accuracy will be important for golfers this week. Traditionally, nearly 50% of all birdies scored at TPC Sawgrass come on the four Par 5 holes, so everyone should be expected to perform well there; golfers who play the Par 4s at or just below par will be the ones who climb the leaderboard in a hurry. Since the greens are small and feature considerable slope and run-off areas, around the green play should be taken into consideration as well because, inevitably, every golfer is going to need to get ‘up and down’ whenever they fail to hit a green in regulation. TPC Sawgrass is a grinder’s course so players who are mentally steadfast and can manage to avoid posting big numbers will also need to be targeted. With that in mind, those who excel in the “bogey avoidance” metric will take priority as well.

Course experience can be invaluable at TPC Sawgrass. In recent years, around half of all golfers competing at TPC Sawgrass for the first time have gone on to miss the cut. One final note: DFS salaries for this tournament were released earlier than usual, so you may notice some golfers who look to be significantly mispriced, especially for certain golfers who competed well at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Feel free to take advantage! A more balanced approach will be great for cash games this week and I’d be extremely wary of delving too far into the “scrub” range even in the riskiest of GPP builds. One punt play in a lineup seems fine but going with multiple complete long shots feels unnecessary – but that is just one man’s opinion. Good luck this week to the LineStar fam! Let’s get it!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

⚖️Weather Verdict: Overall, the weather looks fairly cooperative this week. Some 20+ mph wind gusts may come into play late Friday afternoon which could lead to a slight PM/AM wave advantage. As of now, the weather should not be a major factor in DFS decision making but, as always, check the most up-to-date forecasts for any significant changes once we get closer to first tee on Thursday morning.

The PLAYERS Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

6. Mid-Iron Accuracy (Proximity 125-175 Yards) | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda) | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The PLAYERS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

The PLAYERS PGA DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.