By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

Welcome to one of the most exciting weeks in golf! It’s time for the world's best to compete at The PLAYERS Championship hosted by TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida! Widely regarded as golf’s unofficial “Fifth Major,“ this event annually boasts what is considered to be the strongest field we’ll see compete across the entire season. Unlike typical Majors, there are no amateur invites sent out and no “over the hill” veterans who received a grandfathered invite for winning this event decades ago. Only current PGA Tour cardholders and a few select international players and qualifiers are eligible to receive an invite to The PLAYERS Championship. 14 of the world’s top 15 ranked golfers, and 47 of the top 50, will be teeing up this week. They’ll be competing for the largest purse of the PGA Tour season – $25 million with $4.5 million going to the winner. Also, exactly like the four Majors, there are 750 FedEx Cup points up for grabs.

This is a large field event featuring 144 golfers in total and the typical 36-hole cut rule applies (top 65 plus ties make the weekend). The PLAYERS Championship has been held at TPC Sawgrass every year since 1982 and the course was designed specifically for this tournament. Since the PGA realigned the schedule a few years ago, this will be only the sixth year since 2006 in which The PLAYERS has taken place in March as opposed to its former mid-May competition date. There are some massive PGA DFS contests posted this week, including a Milly Maker over on DraftKings, so here’s to a great week for the LineStar fam!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Sawgrass

Par 72 | 7,275 Yards

Greens: TifEagle Bermuda (Overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis)

Course Type: TPC

*Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 18th, 16th, 23rd, 29th, 5th

*Cut Line Last 5 Years: +2, +2, Even, -1, -1

*Data excluded from 2020 since only one round was played before the tournament was canceled due to COVID-19.

TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 set-up that checks in at a moderate length of 7,275 yards. This is a Pete Dye-designed course, which means there is an intention to bully and intimidate golfers off of the tee. Golfers will be forced to make “risk versus reward” decisions and choose the correct lines and landing zones in order to set up more advantageous looks on approach. Errant shots can be very punishing with hazards and tricky lies looming around every corner of this course. In 2023, golfers averaged 72.45 strokes per round (+0.45 over par) at TPC Sawgrass. The fairways are tight and tree-lined and the TifEagle bermudagrass greens (overseeded with Poa Trivialis) are smaller than the PGA Tour average and should run firm and fast (12+ on the stimpmeter). There are also 17 water hazards along with 88 sand traps to contend with. Wind can also become a primary course defense if it kicks up at any point. TPC Sawgrass is also home to one of the most iconic holes in golf -- the Par 3 No. 17 “Island Green” that sees some packed crowds and a ton of TV coverage which places immense pressure on every shot golfers will attempt there. However, the closing Par 4 No. 18 is truly the defining hole of TPC Sawgrass… at least in the minds of most players and golf analysts. Water lines the entire 18th hole and it’s simply a great example of a Pete Dye design that forces golfers to be at the top of their game both mechanically and mentally. The No. 17 and No. 18 holes are largely considered to be the best two-hole finishing stretch of any course on the entire PGA Tour circuit.

TPC Sawgrass is a true second-shot course – meaning it is more important what a golfer does with their approach shots rather than what they do off the tee. Approach shot accuracy is always extraordinarily crucial, but perhaps even more so this week. Ever since this tournament moved to March, most approach shots have come from the 125-175 range, so mid-iron accuracy will be important for golfers this week. Traditionally, nearly 50% of all birdies scored at TPC Sawgrass come on the four Par 5 holes, so everyone should be expected to perform well there; golfers who play the Par 4s at or just below par will be the ones who climb the leaderboard in a hurry. Since the greens are small and feature considerable slope and run-off areas, around the green play should be taken into consideration as well because, inevitably, every golfer is going to need to get “up and down” whenever they fail to hit a green in regulation. TPC Sawgrass is a grinder’s course so players who are mentally steadfast and can manage to avoid posting big numbers will also need to be targeted. With that in mind, those who excel in the “bogey avoidance” metric will take priority as well.

Course experience can be invaluable at TPC Sawgrass. In recent years, around half of all golfers competing at TPC Sawgrass for the first time have gone on to miss the cut. One final note: DFS salaries for this tournament were released earlier than usual, so you may notice some golfers who look to be significantly mispriced, especially for certain golfers who competed well at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Feel free to take advantage! A more balanced approach will be great for cash games this week and I’d be extremely wary of delving too far into the “scrub” range even in the riskiest of GPP builds. One punt play in a lineup seems fine but going with multiple complete long shots feels unnecessary – but that is just one man’s opinion. Good luck this week! Let’s get it!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Plenty of sunshine with temps in the low 70s for much of the day. Wind speeds will be very manageable, roughly 5 mph all day with no significant gusts.

Friday: Cloudy and foggy in the morning, however, winds will be very calm. In the late afternoon, winds pick up to around 10 mph sustained with 15 mph gusts.

Weekend: Winds should stick to around 5-10 mph much of the weekend, with the occasional 15+ mph gusts. Rain is possible on Saturday afternoon but it’s not expected to be enough to cause any sort of washout.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Conditions across the first two rounds will be close to ideal, however, if you want to give a slight bump to the PM/AM wave since they’ll avoid the higher winds on Friday afternoon, then I wouldn’t blame you. Overall, weather should have little-to-no impact on DFS decision-making this week.

The PLAYERS Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

6. Mid-Iron Accuracy (Proximity 125-175 Yards) | 10%

7. Strokes Gained: Putting | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The PLAYERS DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

The PLAYERS DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.