PGA DFS Guide + DraftKings & FanDuel Cheat Sheet | Rocket Mortgage Classic ⛳

Author

Ryan Humphries
June 28, 2023

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour takes us to the Motor City this week as the Rocket Mortgage Classic is set to tee off at Detroit Golf Club. 2019 marked the inaugural edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, as well as the first time the PGA Tour played at Detroit GC, so we won’t have extensive course history to lean on this week. After being spoiled with star-studded fields for an elevated event last week and a Major the week before, the overall strength of this full-sized 156-player field will be below average by comparison. There will be seven of the top 25 ranked golfers in the world, and 35 of the top 100, teeing it up this week. We may have to dig a little deeper in order to find the more suitable value options among the lesser-known golfers but I, for one, welcome the challenge! The normal 36-hole cut rule is once again in play so the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend rounds. Here’s to a slew of 6/6 lineups for the LineStar fam!

The Course Preview ⛳

Detroit Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,370 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Mix

First Tee: Thursday, June 29th at 6:45 a.m. ET

 

2019 Cut Line: (-5)

2020 Cut Line: (-5)

2021 Cut Line: (-3)

2022 Cut Line: (-3)

 

2019 Winner: Nate Lashley (-25)

2020 Winner: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)

2021 Winner: Cam Davis (-18)

2022 Winner: Tony Finau (-26)

 

2019 Course Difficulty Rank: 42nd

2020 Course Difficulty Rank: 38th

2021 Course Difficulty Rank: 40th

2022 Course Difficult Rank: 38th

 

Detroit GC was designed by Donald Ross in the early 1900s. This will be just the fifth time this course will be featured on the PGA Tour circuit, so if you want to really get into some nitty-gritty research, it may be worth looking at a player’s course history at some other Ross-designed courses (East Lake, Plain View, Aronimink, Sedgefield). But as we saw the last four seasons, golfers didn’t have much trouble tackling this course and it has resulted in some certified birdie-fests. I’d expect things to play out in a very similar fashion this go ‘round with a winning score inside the 20-under range.

This is a shorter-than-average Par 72 set-up and, since it is a traditional Par 72, that means there are four Par 5 holes in play which will allow for a flock of birdies and plenty of potential eagle opportunities as well. Golfers are not afraid to attack this course with the big stick and the average driving distance here in 2022 reached 302.3 yards (+10.9 yards above average).

Detroit GC features a nice balanced blend of longer and shorter holes. The tree-lined fairways possess some noticeable hilly undulation and are slightly narrow in width. Driving accuracy was 62.4% here last season. There aren’t many doglegged holes so most of these fairways will be straight shots off of the tee box. There are 87 bunkers for golfers to navigate, including many that are guarding the preferred fairway landing zones. However, there is just one water hazard to contend with. A “bomb and gouge” approach has been successfully deployed by many players in the last four years of this event’s existence. With that said, golfers without elite distance have still been able to compete at a high level as well. A sharp wedge game will come in handy at Detroit GC with nearly half of all approach shots coming from a distance inside of 150 yards.

The mixed Bentgrass/Poa greens, which reportedly putt more like a pure poa surface, represent the primary course defense here. They are on the smaller side (about 5,100 square feet, on average) and can play tougher than many greens on Tour. They’re multi-tiered, heavily bunkered, and primarily slope back to front while running moderately fast at about 12-13 on the stimpmeter.

We can keep things fairly straightforward in our search for ideal DFS candidates this week. Detroit GC requires big-time birdie-making ability, accurate short iron play, proficient Par 5 scoring, a reliable putter, and a big driver, while not necessary, doesn’t hurt -- especially if a particular golfer is both long and straight off the tee. I know it’s not the most glamorous event but someone has to get those PGA takedowns this week! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Winds very calm in the early morning hours, picking up to around 10 mph sustained from 10 a.m. through the remainder of the round. Gusts will only peak around 15 mph throughout the day. Plenty of sunshine with temps mostly in the upper-70s.

Friday: Very calm once again in the early morning with winds nearing 10 mph around midday into the afternoon (w/ 15 mph gusts). Temps in the 70s and mid-80s with a low chance of rain later in the day.

Weekend: Calm wind conditions on Saturday, picking up just a bit on Sunday, but nothing too problematic. There is a good amount of rain throughout the day in the Sunday forecast. That may bring a stoppage into play but golfers may also just be forced to play that round in some wet weather.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Nothing in the forecast suggests there is any notable wave advantage this week. We’ll just have to cross our fingers with the rainy Sunday outlook and hope there won’t need to be any sort of Monday finish.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Birdie or Better Percentage | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

> Emphasis on Short Iron Accuracy (Proximity <150 Yards) | 5%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Par 5 Average | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

Rocket Mortgage Classic DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Rocket Mortgage Classic DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.