By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour arrives at the end of the FedEx Cup Fall Series as golfers prepare to tee it up for The RSM Classic hosted by Sea Island Resort on Saint Simons Island, Georgia. For many golfers, this will be their final chance to secure their PGA Tour card for the upcoming 2024 season. With the Hero World Challenge (small 20-player field), Grant Thorn Invitational (mixed PGA/LPGA team event), and PGA Tour Q-School left as the only other 2023 events, this tournament will be the final standard event remaining until we flip the calendar over to 2024. As such, this will also be the final PGA newsletter until January comes around. Get your PGA DFS fix in while ya can!

Due to daylight being more scarce around this time of year, The RSM Classic is a tournament that is set up to be played on two separate courses – the Par 70 Seaside Course and the Par 72 Plantation Course. Each golfer will play one round on each course over the first two days. Once a cut line is established, the remaining two rounds will be played only on the Seaside Course over the weekend. This is a full-field event with 156 golfers competing and the traditional cut line rule will remain in play, so the top 65 golfers (including ties) after 36 holes will move on to play the weekend. This is the strongest field we’ve seen thus far in the fall swing with 31 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers set to tee it up!

The Course Preview ⛳

The Seaside Course

Golfers who make it past the cut line will play three total rounds on The Seaside Course (Par 70, 7,055 yards) so this is the track that should draw most of our attention. It’s also the only one of the two courses that will have ShotLink data and much of the television coverage tends to be focused here. Since the Seaside Course is a traditional Par 70 setup, it will feature twelve Par 4s, four Par 3s, and only two Par 5s – Par 4 scoring will be crucial, as is always the case on standard Par 70 layouts.

The fairways here are wider than average but become more and more narrow the closer golfers get to the hole. Missed fairways will result in quite a few penal shots. As a result, many golfers will opt to club down off the tee, especially if the wind speeds pick up. This will also put a premium on golfers who can place their shots onto the smaller landing zones and set themselves up for better positioning for their approach shots.

The Bermuda grass green complexes are on the smaller side, so I’ll be looking to find golfers who can get creative around the greens. Since this is an open links style course that sits along the coast, winds can absolutely come into play as a primary defense. It looks like golfers will see at least one very windy round on Thursday. More on the weather below, but be sure you’re checking the most up-to-date forecasts and stack that up against tee times/course designations in case of a potential course/wave advantage!

The Plantation Course (Thursday/Friday Only)

Once again, The Plantation Course (Par 72, 7,060 yards) will only be played for one round by each golfer on either Thursday or Friday. Since there are four Par 5s as well as tree-lined fairways which provide more protection from the coastal winds, we can usually expect this course to play around one to two strokes easier than The Seaside Course. Last year, this course played 2.24 strokes under par whereas the Seaside Course played 1.01 strokes under par.

The PGA Tour did have this course redesigned a few years back which increased its difficulty, but it should still be the easier of the two setups, as it has been in four of the last five years. The greens here are also Bermuda grass and are around 1,000 square feet smaller, on average, than the green complexes on The Seaside Course. More bunkers, as well as water hazards, will come into play on The Plantation Course. The additional bunkers scattered around the green complexes are another reason why we should be paying attention to around the green statistics this week.

In general, neither course is overly challenging (pending weather), and winning scores for this tournament have landed between 19-under and 22-under par in each of the last six years. A cut line around three-under-par can be expected as well.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: This will be the windiest round of the week. Sustained winds will be around 12-15 mph throughout the day with gusts around 25 mph. Rain is also likely throughout the day, particularly around midday and into the afternoon. Hopefully, it's nothing heavy enough to cause any lengthy stoppages in play.

Friday: Sustained winds drop down to 10 mph with ~15 mph gusts.

Weekend: Calm conditions across the weekend with winds rarely exceeding 5-10 mph.

⚖️Weather Verdict: With the added hitch in this week’s multi-course format, the weather could become a noticeable factor. The windiest day looks to arrive on Thursday’s opening round. For that reason, I believe it makes sense to downgrade golfers who draw the more wind-sensitive Seaside Course in the first round. Will it be impossible for golfers to shoot a low round on the Seaside Course on Thursday? Nope. But it is quite possible, almost likely, that we’ll see lower overall scores on The Seaside Course on Friday. Meanwhile, as mentioned in the course breakdown, the more heavily tree-lined Plantation Course offers added protection from the coastal winds. So, to put it succinctly, golfers who play on the Plantation Course on Thursday (and the Seaside Course on Friday) will be the preferred group.

Note: Take this info for what it’s worth! I wouldn’t 100% rule out a golfer from DFS consideration solely based on if they’re playing the Seaside Course on Thursday.

RSM Classic Tee Times (& Round 1 and 2 Course Designations)

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 15%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

6. Par 5 Average | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

RSM Classic DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

RSM Classic DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.