By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA is back from its brief holiday season hiatus, and we are set to tee off the Tour’s first event of 2024! I hope everyone had a great time bringing in the New Year, and here’s to this being a prosperous year, both in DFS and elsewhere in your life. This week will take golfers out to the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawaii for The Sentry (formerly known as The Sentry Tournament of Champions). In previous seasons, the only way to garner an invitation to this tournament was by winning an event in the previous calendar year or by finishing in the top 30 in the FedEx Cup points standings. However, beginning this season, golfers who qualified for the second leg of the PGA Tour playoffs have also received an invitation, along with all tournament winners from last year. As a result, we’ll see a larger field than we’re used to for the Sentry TOC this season with 59 players on site. 24 of the top 30 ranked players in the world will be teeing it up this week and only six players in the field are ranked outside of the top 105 in the OWGR. This is a no-cut event, so hey, a guaranteed paycheck for everyone along with a nice trip to Maui to begin the New Year… must be nice!

Note: First tee for this event is at 12.45 pm ET on Thursday, January 4th. DFS contests will lock at that time as well.

The Course Preview ⛳

The Plantation Course is a Par 73 set-up that extends 7,600 yards and stands out as a very unique PGA Tour venue. Not only is it the only Par 73 course on Tour but the course is also built onto the side of a mountain near the coastline. Because of its location, this course can be affected pretty dramatically by winds. The Plantation Course at Kapalua still routinely produces winning scores well into the 20-under range and scores have even hit 30-under on multiple occasions, including two years ago when Cameron Smith won with an insanely low 34-under score. Some renovations were made to the course a few years ago to make it a more difficult venue but, unless the winds cause some trouble, golfers should be posting some very low scores once again this year.

In general, this course won’t play as long as the advertised 7,600 yardage would indicate. There are a plethora of drastic elevation changes that will shorten the course, and there are only three Par 3s as well. Golfers will see wide-open fairways off of the tee with very little rough coming into play. Extremely errant tee shots can find some super problematic rough, but for the most part, we can expect a high percentage of tee shots to find the short grass. When golfers step up to make their approach shots, they’ll be targeting some of the largest green complexes on Tour. The expansive Bermuda grass greens have moderate amounts of undulation and should run fairly firm – around 11 on the stimpmeter. At first glance, bombers would seem to have the advantage here due to the course length and wide open layout, but I’m putting my preference towards the elite iron players who will be able to go pin-seeking this week.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

⚖️Weather Verdict: First off, since there is no cut for this event, weather plays less of a factor for DFS purposes. The smaller field will also leave tee times closer together. That said, the worst winds over the first two rounds will come in the Friday afternoon hours. Winds will also kick up throughout the day on Saturday while Sunday will provide the calmest conditions of the week. The main takeaway is that the later Friday tee times could receive a slight downgrade due to the windier conditions.

The Sentry Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better % | 25%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

The Sentry DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

The Sentry DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.