By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour heads out to sunny Las Vegas for the Shriners Children’s Open, hosted at TPC Summerlin. As anyone playing PGA DFS since the start of the FedEx Cup Fall Series is aware, these events aren’t going to draw immensely talented fields. However, we’ll have a few more recognizable names in the mix for this event. This is a full-field event that will feature nearly one-third of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world. The usual 36-hole cut rule will once again remain in effect as the top 65 (including ties) will move on to play the weekend! Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Summerlin

Par 71 | 7,255 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 38th, 43rd, 42nd, 48th, 39th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -3, -4, -5, -7, -5

TPC Summerlin has been the host course for this tournament every fall since 1992, so there will be strong course history to rely upon this week. The course is a Par 71 setup that will play between 7,200 and 7,300 yards, depending on hole location each round. Typically, TPC Summerlin will be one of the easiest courses golfers will play all year on the PGA Tour, and, weather permitting, a winning score will likely delve into the 20-under range as it has in six consecutive seasons and eight of the last ten years. The cut line has also been low, at least 3-under in the last four seasons. We will get into the weather in more detail below but some windy conditions this week may cause this course to play more difficult than in previous seasons!

TPC Summerlin plays at an average elevation of 2,700 feet. The higher altitude will even the playing field a bit when it comes to length off of the tee and the shorter hitters won’t be outclassed as easily by their ‘bomber’ counterparts. Given the course’s altitude and relatively shorter length, look for many golfers to club down off the tee with a three wood or long iron. There will be plenty of eagle opportunities as all three Par 5s can be reachable in two shots for nearly the entire field. Out of the eleven Par 4s, only two measure over 450 yards so there will be ample birdie chances on those holes as well. The fairways here are generous, and even when golfers miss the short grass, the rough isn’t overly troublesome – the same cannot be said about the native areas, however. One newer aspect about the course that was introduced last year are the newly renovated greens. All 18 bentgrass green complexes were reshaped and resurfaced, most notably adding more slope and undulation. In seasons prior to 2023, the greens ran at moderate speeds (around 11 on the stimpmeter) but they now run a bit more firm and fast.

In general, we should be targeting golfers who possess a strong approach game, have a high birdie or better percentage, and are reliable Par 4 scorers who can separate themselves from the pack on those 11 holes. Golfers who consistently roll it well with the flat stick will also be at a notable advantage. It’s a fairly straightforward DFS approach considering the relative ease of TPC Summerlin and its propensity to turn into a birdie-fest.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Assuming the current forecast holds, this is looking like one of the most clear-cut wave advantages we’ve seen in quite some time. The Thursday AM golfers will draw the best conditions ahead of the cut line and it’s not exactly close. All golfers wll have to contend with some intense winds on Friday, but the Thursday AM golfers will avoid the windy conditions that will arrive in the afternoon of the opening round. I don’t believe you need to fully avoid the PM/AM golfers, but the safest options will be found in the AM/PM wave group and I’d probably go with around a 70%/30% split for my player pool (in favor of AM/PM).

Shriners Children’s Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Birdie or Better % | 30%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Average | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Shriners Children’s Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Shriners Children’s Open DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.