By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The next Major has arrived as the world’s very best make their way out to Pittsford, New York, just outside of Rochester, in preparation for the 105th PGA Championship which will be hosted by Oak Hill Country Club. This is truly one of the most entertaining and challenging weeks of golf across the entire year. Not only is the level of competition rivaled only by The PLAYERS Championship, but the selected course for each year’s PGA Championship is meant to provide one of the toughest challenges for golfers each season. The field consists of 156 players and includes 99 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. One thing to remember this week – the cut rule will move to the top 70 and ties making the 36-hole cut.

The Course Preview ⛳

Oak Hill Country Club (East Course)

Par 70 | 7,394 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

First Tee: Thursday, May 18th at 7:00 am ET

Oak Hill Country Club is widely regarded as one of the premier golf courses in the United States. Oak Hill has a decorated history and has hosted numerous major championships and other prestigious golf events. The club was established in 1901 and was originally designed by the renowned golf course architect Donald Ross. The course has undergone several renovations and modifications over the years to maintain its challenge and appeal. Oak Hill most recently hosted PGA Championships in 2013 and 2003. However, a major renovation and redesign, headed by Andrew Green in 2020, will essentially make this a new course entirely different from its previous competitive appearances. Very few golfers in this field competed here in 2013, and even fewer in 2003, but course history from those two years cannot be reliably factored in this week. A pair of comparable courses to the new-look Oak Hill would be Bethpage Black (2019 PGA Championship, 2009 US Open) and Winged Foot (2020 US Open).

During the 2020 renovation, every green complex was remodeled, over 600 trees were removed to open up sight lines, the fairways regained a bit of width that they previously possessed in the original design, and around 200 yards of length was added to the East Course. Despite the widening of those fairways they are still nearly 10 yards narrower than PGA Tour average but the removal of those trees will open things up a bit in comparison to past tournaments held here -- although there are still thousands of trees throughout the course so it’s far from a wide open layout. The rough surrounding the fairways will be grown out to around three inches and, while it isn’t overly long, it is very thick. In many cases, due to the type of grass, that rough will “prop up” certain golf balls that find the thick stuff instead of causing them to sink to the bottom -- either way, it won’t be a breeze to hit out of. There are 78 bunkers throughout the course, many of which are deep and will offer unpredictable shots, and water will come into play on six holes. The bentgrass greens will average about 4,500 square feet, which puts them very much on the smaller side of PGA Tour average. Many of these greens are elevated and are protected by steep frontside runoffs and deep bunkers. In 2013, 56.9% of greens were hit in regulation at Oak Hill and, following the redesign, that figure may be even smaller this go-'round.

Oak Hill is simply a beast from a layout perspective. Two of the four Par 3s are 230+ yards, there are a pair of 500+ yard Par 4s (four total 480+ yard Par 4s) and the two Par 5s measure in at 615 yards and 623 yards. Those daunting Par 4s and Par 5s will demand long and straight drives off of the tee and cooler temperatures will make it even more difficult for golfers to achieve an ideal carry distance. Simply scoring a par on many holes at Oak Hill will feel like a birdie, and birdies will often feel like eagles. We can fully anticipate a single-digit under-par score to win this week.

So, what type of golfer will find success here? Well, it’s easier said than done, but golfers can ill afford to have any major slip-ups in any of the four major strokes gained categories (off the tee, approach, around the green, and putting). On many PGA courses, being overly strong in one category, for instance, on approach, but lacking in another area, like putting, can still lead to a golfer having a good week; that won’t be the case at Oak Hill. Golfers who are generally both long and straight out of the tee box will have an upper hand on many holes and it would be a surprise if a shorter hitter ends up hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday. As is the case at any PGA Championship, patience, and intelligent shot selection will be the major intangibles. Knowing when to play the conservative shot and when to go for a risky play will be paramount. Oak Hill will certainly provide a true test for golfers this week and even slightly erratic shots will be punished. It’s sure to be a wild and entertaining week of golf so let’s lock in and get to work! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Light <10 mph winds. Plenty of sunshine with cooler temps in the 40s, getting into the 50s closer to midday.

Thursday PM: Winds remain light and manageable, just a bit under 10 mph. Temps in the mid-60s.

Friday AM: Sustained winds kick up to around 15 mph with gusts in the 25-30 mph range.

Friday PM: Sustained winds continue to hover around 15 mph into the afternoon with ~25 mph gusts.

Weekend: The wind forecast will be fairly similar to Friday’s round on both Saturday and Sunday, though the gusts look to calm down a bit for the final round. Saturday will also bring forth the chance for rain, but it's not expected to be widespread or heavy enough to cause any major concern.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Overall, golfers will experience similar conditions no matter what tee times they draw so there will be no significant advantage to point out. Be sure to run a final forecast check on Wednesday night (or very early Thursday morning) in case of any significant changes.

PGA Championship Tee Times

PGA Championship Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 20%

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 15%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

5. Long Iron Accuracy: Proximity from 175+ Yards | 10%

6. Sand Save Percentage | 10%

7. Bogey Avoidance | 10%

8. Driving Distance | 5%

9. Driving Accuracy | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind that many golfers in this week’s field (from the LIV Golf tour or DPWT) do not have enough (or any) measured PGA rounds this season needed to qualify for strokes gained data.

105th PGA Championship Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course/tournament history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stats Only: This provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting 10 golfers who should be on your radar for PGA Championship Week.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12k

Odds: 8/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #3

Overall Model Rank: #1

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st SG: OTT, 1st P4 AVG, 1st Bogey Avoidance

When you’re eyeing the cream of the crop this week, it’s going to be a tough call between Scheffler, Rahm, and McIlroy. While gaining exposure to all three golfers, in some capacity, makes ample sense, if there’s one player we can have the utmost confidence in, it’s Scottie Scheffler. The guy is simply the most well-rounded and consistent golfer in the world right now and his ability to recover from his occasional bad shots and still make pars will pay huge dividends at Oak Hill this week. Being “long and straight” with the driver will be a major advantage for any golfer this week and that’s just one of many areas where Scheffler excels -- ranking first in SG: OTT and inside the top 20 in both driving distance and driving accuracy. His form has been in absolute prime condition for nearly two years and you have to go back a dozen PGA starts, all the way to the CJ Cup in late October of last year, to find a finish worse than 12th place for Scheffler. He has also risen to the occasion in these prestigious tournaments with six top-10s in his last eight Major starts. It’s no surprise, Scheffler makes for an elite foundational target for any DFS lineup this week.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.7k

Odds: 20/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: N/A

We won’t have any recent strokes gained metrics to point to with any of the LIV Golf players that are in this week’s field but, when it comes to Brooks Koepka, all we need to know is that he’s healthy and he’s teeing up in a Major Championship. Anyone who has followed golf for the last few years knows that Koepka is a Major Championship juggernaut and that proved true once again a couple of months ago at the 2023 Masters where he notched an impressive T-2 finish. Koepka had a stretch of substandard Major performances in 2022 while battling poor form, likely due to injury issues, but he has carded 11 finishes of 7th or better in his last 19 Major starts, including three outright victories. One of those victories came at the 2019 PGA Championship, held at Bethpage Black, which is a strong comp course for the newly redesigned Oak Hill. Koepka has also been in strong form over on the LIV Golf tour where he has notched three top-fives in his last four starts. So, even though he has been out of the PGA spotlight for a while now, a strong case can be made for Koepka at Oak Hill.

Patrick Cantlay | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.3k

Odds: 18/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #10

Overall Model Rank: #5

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: 2nd SG: OTT, 2nd P4 AVG, 9th Bogey Avoidance

Patrick Cantlay heads into Oak Hill on the heels of seven consecutive finishes of 21st or better with four top-10s in that stretch. Cantlay is just one of three players in the field who rank inside the top 20 in both driving distance and driving accuracy, so he will clearly fit the “long and straight” off-the-tee criteria that should translate well at Oak Hill. He’s been one of the better overall tee-to-green golfers in the world but he will have to show a more polished short game, ranking 61st in SG: Around the Greens and 80th in Sand Save Percentage. If he can do that, he’s a definite candidate to win his first career Major this week.

Dustin Johnson | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k

Odds: 25/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: N/A

We’ll spotlight another well-known LIV Golf member, Dustin Johnson. The T-48 result from this year’s Masters Tournament may scare folks away from DJ, but it is worth noting that he had a strong ball-striking performance at Augusta National, gaining 4.7 strokes on the field, but a tough week with the putter kept him out of high-end contention. Johnson is fresh off of a victory at last week’s LIV Golf event in Tulsa, firing rounds of 63, 63, and 67 before clutching up and winning in a three-man playoff. Johnson will also have one of the longest drivers in the field this week and he remains one of the better long-iron players in the world, which bodes well for potential success at Oak Hill. He makes for a strong leverage play in GPPs this week and, for anyone who plays Yahoo PGA DFS, he’s sorely underpriced at $25.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k

Odds: 35/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #9

Overall Model Rank: #9

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: 9th SG: OTT, 11th SG: App, 21st Driving Accuracy

Hatton is peaking at the right time following back-to-back top-five finishes at the AT&T Byron Nelson and Wells Fargo Championship in the last two weeks. Hatton has been stellar off of the tee, combining solid distance with stronger accuracy, and he’s been showing off some crafty skills around the greens. Hatton also posted a 13th-place finish in the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills so we know he has the game to compete at these tougher venues.

Rickie Fowler | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 60/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Overall Model Rank: #12

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: 7th SG: App, 15th P4 AVG, 15th Bogey Avoidance

It’s been a stellar season for Rickie Fowler who has punched in eight top-20 finishes across his last nine starts, with the lone outlier being a T-31 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While Fowler has had some tough stretches in recent years, he has routinely shown up in a big way at PGA Championships. Fowler has made 11 cuts in 13 PGA Championship appearances and has finishes of 5th, 8th, 12th, and 23rd within his last six PGA Championship starts. He seems to have figured out his issues with his irons and the putter this season and comes into this week with plenty of momentum. Fowler sets up as one of the higher-owned DFS targets out of this range but he simply makes too much sense at his current DFS salaries.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k

Odds: 66/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #15

Overall Model Rank: #10

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: 6th Driving Distance, 20th Bogey Avoidance, 22nd SG: App

Wyndham Clark is playing the best golf of his career so he'll command some recognition this week. He notched his first career PGA Tour win two weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship and he’s currently riding a stretch of 16 consecutive made cuts which includes five top-10 finishes. Clark’s mammoth distance off of the tee will be the major draw for him at Oak Hill this week but it’s been his iron play that has out-shined his off-the-tee prowess. The only real knocks against Clark will be his lack of success in Majors and his relative inaccuracy off the tee. But, as mentioned, he’s never teed up in any Major having this type of quality form and you would imagine that he’ll adjust to the course by focusing on hitting fairways while still maintaining solid driving distance. Clark has already earned plenty of respect with his play in the 2023 PGA season, but showing up on one of the biggest stages in the sport this week would take him to the next level.

Gary Woodland | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 80/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #44

Overall Model Rank: #32

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: 5th Driving Distance, 8th SG: OTT, 8th Long Iron Accuracy

Woodland opened this week with 160/1 odds to win and he’s quickly been steamed up to 80/1 outright odds. That tells us that a lot of sharp bettors have since placed some big-time bets on the 2019 US Open winner. It’s easy to see why Woodland is being widely touted this week. He has elite distance with the driver and his best approach numbers come from his long irons. While those two factors are only a part of the required skill set for success at Oak Hill, they are necessary nonetheless. Woodland has carded six consecutive made cuts heading into this week, including a pair of 14th-place finishes, and he has also made six consecutive PGA Championship cuts with a pair of top-10s (2018 & 2019). If he can figure things out with the flat stick, don’t be surprised if Woodland makes some noise at these discounted DFS prices.

Yannik Paul | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.3k

Odds: 400/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: N/A

Yannik Paul is a name I’m sure many PGA fans and DFS players will be unfamiliar with but he makes for an intriguing value play this week. Paul, who has ascended to #103 in the Official World Golf Rankings, has been in strong form over on the DP World Tour where he has carded three top-six finishes within his last five starts. He gained strokes off the tee in each of those previous five starts while ranking 9th on the (DPWT) season in total strokes gained and 16th in scoring average. If he can translate his recent run of success over to American soil, Paul sets up as a decent bet to get past the cut line and make some noise on the weekend.

Harold Varner III | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 225/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Top 3 Key Stats Trends: N/A

We’ll get back into another LIV Golf player, but this time we’re fishing further down in the depths of DFS pricing with Harold Varner III. HV3’s primary red flag will be his accuracy issues off of the tee, but if he finds enough fairways this week, he could end up returning incredible value at these price points. Varner has found some nice form over on the LIV Golf tour with finishes of 4th, T-8, and T-11 in his last three starts. He also logged a rock-solid T-29 finish at this year’s Masters. A similar result at the PGA Championship would be welcomed and he could certainly push for a top-20 type of finish given his recent form and overall skill-set.

105th PGA Championship DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.