By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The next Major has arrived as the world’s very best make their way out to Louisville, Kentucky, in preparation for the 106th PGA Championship which will be hosted by Valhalla Golf Club. This is truly one of the most entertaining and challenging weeks of golf across the entire year. Not only is the level of competition rivaled only by The PLAYERS Championship, but the selected course for each year’s PGA Championship is meant to provide one of the toughest challenges for golfers each season. The field consists of 156 players and includes 97 of the top 100 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. There will also be 16 LIV Golf members competing in this week’s field. One thing to remember this week – for this week only, the cut rule will move to the top 70 and ties making the 36-hole cut. Best of luck this week!

The Course Preview ⛳

Valhalla Golf Club

Par 71 | 7,609 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Valhalla Golf Club was designed by golf legend Jack Nicklaus in 1986 and will host the PGA Championship for the fourth time in its lifespan. This course previously hosted this Major tournament in 1996, 2000, and 2014. Tiger Woods reigned victorious at Valhalla way back in 2000. At that time, the course played as a 7,200-yard Par 72. Rory McIlroy carded a winning score of 16-under in 2014 after the course was lengthened to 7,400+ yards and made into a Par 71.

Valhalla GC has since undergone further changes since that PGA Championship appearance in 2014 -- some added length will now give it an official scorecard length of over 7,600 yards. Since this remains a Par 71, that additional distance will make this effectively the longest course golfers have faced up to this point in the season. Several tee boxes have also changed which will lead to the course playing more difficult. The fairways have also transitioned from bentgrass to Zoysiagrass.

As for course defenses, aside from its extreme length, Valhalla features 62 bunkers and water which will come into play on five holes. More notably, the Kentucky bluegrass/fescue rough is expected to be grown out up to four inches, which is sure to cause problems for golfers who miss the fairway. The bentgrass green complexes are small in surface area, but their overall lack of undulation will offer some reprieve for golfers, though they will still be among the fastest greens that golfers will see all season.

Jack Nicklaus designed Valhalla GC to reward elite ball striking and long, accurate play off of the tee. Long iron play will also be paramount as even the strongest drivers of the golf ball will be faced with numerous 175 to 200+ yard approach shots. Six Par 4s will play well over 450 yards, including a pair of 500+ yard Par 4 monsters. Golfers must also take advantage of the three Par 5s, as those will easily provide the best scoring opportunities on the course. It’s sure to be a wild and entertaining week of golf so let’s lock in and get to work! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Ideal conditions for the opening round as winds are not expected to exceed 10 mph and there will be no significant gusts to speak of. Low-end chance of some rain in the very late afternoon hours, but it’s more likely to be dry for the entire round.

Friday: The second round will threaten some rain with scattered storms. Sustained winds will still be manageable, around 5-10 mph throughout the day. Periodic gusts of 15-20 mph are also expected throughout the day.

Weekend: Golfers will be hoping to dodge some rain over the weekend, particularly on Saturday when some storms, which may include lightning, come into play. Sunday’s round looks more cooperative with only a low-end chance of some isolated rainstorms. Weekend winds will generally stay in the single digits with a few 15+ mph gusts expected on Saturday.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Thursday AM golfers will draw absolute prime conditions, but it’d be a stretch to say either wave has any significant advantage. Friday’s round is the main concern ahead of the cutline, but all golfers will face similar conditions throughout that second round. Overall, there is no need to factor weather into your DFS decision-making.

PGA Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity from 175+ Yards) | 15%

4. Driving Distance | 10%

5. SG: Around the Green | 10%

6. Par 5 Birdie or Better % | 10%

7. Bogey Avoidance | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind that many golfers in this week’s field do not have enough (or any) measured PGA rounds this season needed to qualify for strokes gained data.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting ten golfers that should be on your radar for PGA Championship Week!

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $13.2k, FD: $13.2k | Odds: 5/1

No shocker here. Scheffler is playing at another level from every other golfer in the world right now and he heads into this 106th PGA Championship ranking 1st in the field in four of my key stats for the week -- ball striking, Par 4 average, Par 5 BoB%, and bogey avoidance. He has won four of his last five tournaments, with one runner-up sandwiched in between, and has finished 8th or better in three of his last four PGA Championship appearances, including a runner-up in 2023 at Oak Hill. His game is just built to win Majors and he’s well worth his $13,200 salary on both sites. Scottie and his wife welcomed their first child into the world on Monday, so, unlike his last couple of tournaments played, we won’t have to worry about him leaving abruptly to attend the birth of his child.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $12k, FD: $12.1k | Odds: 8/1

Rory is not cheap by any means, but he’s probably coming in at a slight discount since his DFS salaries were set before he ran circles around the field last week at the always-challenging Quail Hollow Club. In total, he gained a whopping +15.64 strokes from tee to green last week and he’ll return to Valhalla where he emerged victorious in 2014, when this course last hosted the PGA Championship. As discussed in the course preview, Valhalla will play around 200 yards longer than it did in 2014, but if there is anyone who could not care less about the added distance, it’s McIlroy, who leads the field in driving distance and ranks second in SG: Off the Tee. Scottie Scheffler is clearly the top golfer in this field, but McIlroy makes just as much sense at over a $1,000 DFS salary discount.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.6k | Odds: 15/1

I wasn’t “in” on Koepka at the Masters, and that ended up working out just fine considering he carded an unspectacular T-45. However, he’ll land in my player pool this week as he seems to have figured out some issues with his putter and is coming off of a victory in his last LIV Golf event in Singapore. Before he was known as a Major machine, Koepka landed a 15th-place finish at Valhalla in 2014. His nine PGA Championships since then, beginning in 2015, have been phenomenal overall: 5th, 4th, 13th, 1st, 1st, 29th, 2nd, 55th, and 1st (2023). Koepka always seems to play with some sort of chip on his shoulder and, now that he’s coming in with some winning form, he should be in the mix at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Joaquin Niemann | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | Odds: 40/1

From one LIV Golf member to another, we’ll put a spotlight on the talented 25-year-old Chilean, Joaquin Niemann. Like many of you, I have very little interest in keeping up with, or watching, LIV Golf events, which is a shame in this case, because Niemann was one of my favorite golfers to watch before his exodus from the PGA Tour. Outside of LIV Golf fans, we last saw Niemann at the Masters where he carded a rock-solid T-22. He’s quietly playing some world-class golf and, over his last five LIV starts, he has come away with finishes of 7th, 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 1st. He trails only Bryson DeChambeau in total driving distance on the LIV Golf tour, averaging 317.4 yards/drive. Additionally, he brings some elite long iron play with him to Valhalla and, while he has had a few issues with the flat stick in recent tournaments, he does tend to excel on bentgrass greens. Niemann will likely be my second-highest-owned LIV golfer this week, just behind the aforementioned Koepka.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.4k | Odds: 70/1

Like many who played last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, I was burned by Matsuyama’s late withdrawal, reportedly due to a back injury. I generally don’t touch guys who are just a week removed from a W/D, especially when it’s concerning a back injury, but the hope here is that Matsuyama chose to take extreme precautions ahead of a Major tournament. Matsuyama is a perfect 11-for-11 in made cuts at PGA Championships with an average finish of 25th. That is some impressive long-term success considering PGA Championship venues are always among the toughest challenges in any given season. Due to the injury concern, you can’t trust him in a cash lineup, but he’s worth sprinkling in some spots in GPPs since most folks will be scared off of him following the W/D.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.8k | Odds: 75/1

Hothead Hatton is another golfer I miss regularly watching compete on the PGA Tour, but he’s back in the spotlight this week! Hatton has a pair of top-15 finishes in the last two PGA Championships and impressed with a T-9 at the Masters last month. It can be finicky trying to gauge “current form” for these LIV Golf guys but Hatton does have a pair of top-fives within his last three LIV starts and the top 10 at the Masters gives me plenty of confidence that he’ll be able to compete in this week’s talented field. His iron play, particularly from long distances, is among the best in the world and that skillset should serve him well at Valhalla.

Byeong Hun An | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.4k | Odds: 66/1

An seems to be catching a lot of steam this week but his short-term form is incredible and he has all the distance in the world to take down the mammoth that is Valhalla. An contributed a solo 3rd place finish at last week’s Wells Fargo Championship and notched a T-4 at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson the week prior. Normally, the putter is what holds him back, but he gained over 10 strokes on the field in those two previous starts. Few golfers will possess the power to out-drive An as well and he ranks 3rd in the field with a 313.5-yard average driving distance. His best approach shots also come from 175+ yards so, if he keeps the hot putter going, he has a very real chance to make some noise come Sunday.

Si Woo Kim | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.3k | Odds: 60/1

Si Woo has his fair share of issues with the putter and he’s not overly long off the tee by any means, but he is an absolute monster from tee to green regardless. Kim checks in at 4th in this field in SG: Tee to Green, behind only Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Hideki Matsuyama. What Kim lacks in elite distance, he will make up for by hitting a ton of fairways, and he has some solid long irons that will help him make up some ground on the elite bombers in this field. And, despite losing over five strokes putting last week, he still managed to post a 16th-place finish at Quail Hollow. I’m not sure if he has the game to win this week, but he’s a great bet for a top 25 and feels like a safe DFS play at this modest salaries.

Stephan Jaeger | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k | Odds: 150/1

Jaeger has done something no other golfer has done since The Genesis Invitational back in mid-February, and that’s win in an event where Scottie Scheffler was also in the field. Jaeger’s victory over Scheffler came at the Houston Open at the end of March. He then missed the cut at the Masters before notching a T-18, T-20, and T-21 in his previous three PGA starts. Jaeger’s iron play can be erratic, and he’ll carry some risk because of it, but he brings elite distance (7th in driving distance) and superb around the green play (9th in SG: ATG) to the table -- two skillsets that are required to succeed at Valhalla.

Keith Mitchell | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.4k | Odds: 200/1

The beauty of Major tournaments is that you’ll find some truly talented golfers deep down in the DFS pricing hierarchy. Keith Mitchell is still a 200/1 longshot, but there is no question that his game translates well to Valhalla. Mitchell ranks 2nd in the field in SG: Ball Striking, he’s sharp from distance with his irons, scores very well on Par 5s (10th in P5 BoB%), and manages to avoid bogey runs (12th in bogey avoidance). Mitchell has made the cut in his last three PGA Championship appearances and has top 20s in six of his last eight PGA starts. Love the value we’re getting on Mitchell this week.

PGA Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Note: Due to not qualifying for PGA strokes gained data, the LIV Golf players are excluded from these rankings.

PGA Championship DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

PGA Championship Extras 📑

Here are a few additional rankings lists that could come in handy when researching this week’s tournament.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.