By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The season’s final Major is upon us as the 152nd Open Championship is just hours away from teeing off… but don’t worry, there is still plenty of time to set your DFS lineups! This year’s Open Championship will be held at Royal Troon in Troon, Scotland and we’ll get to see all of the big names in the golf world battle it out across the pond. The 158-player field will boast the absolute best talent that the game has to offer – 49 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world will be in attendance (No. 41 Cameron Davis being the lone absentee). Plenty of other top 100 ranked golfers will be in the mix along with some top DPWT players, 18 LIV Golf competitors, several past champions, and a few qualifying amateurs. After 36 holes, the top 70 (including ties) will make the cut and move on to play the weekend -- take note that this is slightly different than the usual “top 65 + ties” cut rule.

Do stay mindful that this event is in Scotland, so play will begin and lineups will lock soon after midnight on the East Coast at 1:35 am ET on Thursday, July 18th. As is the case with all Major events, DFS pricing is soft on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Generally speaking, a balanced lineup is often ideal for cash games but anything goes for GPPs. If you’re new to PGA DFS, I wouldn’t recommend getting too cute with “punting” a ton of super low-priced guys. With that said, there are plenty of cheaper golfers who will carry some appeal, some of which we’ll discuss a bit further down in this newsletter. Majors are set up to provide the most challenging tests that professional golfers see all year, and the cream always rises to the top. A few lesser-known players will certainly surprise on the final leaderboard, but well-known and vetted pros will far outnumber them.

Finally, I know we may get some folks testing the waters in PGA DFS this week since the MLB is on its All-Star Break, and there aren’t really any other popular sports in action at the moment. Don’t hesitate to ask some questions in the LineStar chat, and I’ll also try to make this newsletter as comprehensive as possible! Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Royal Troon

Par 71 | 7,383 Yards

Royal Troon is a longer Par 71 course that is located along the picturesque Firth of Clyde, just south of Glasgow. When it last hosted the Open Championship in 2016, it was Henrik Stenson’s incredible performance that year -- finishing at 20 under par -- that stole the spotlight. Stenson finished three shots better than Phil Mickelson. However, Stenson and Mickelson's exceptional play masked the true difficulty of the course, as they distanced themselves from the field by an impressive 11+ strokes. Without their stellar weeks, the winning score would have been a more modest 6 under par, which is roughly the sort of winning score we’ll largely be expecting this week.

Since 2016, the course has been lengthened by about 150 yards. It features several long Par 4s on the back nine, many of which are expected to play over par. This will place additional emphasis on approach play, a trend that was already evident in 2016. Accuracy off the tee will be crucial, and more important than raw distance, as the course runs alongside the sea where winds can impact any shot of moderate length. The narrow fairways are surrounded by thick gorse bushes and rough. There are also 101 strategically placed pot bunkers on the property that can penalize even the slightest mistake.

Royal Troon is a traditional Par 71 with three Par 5s, one checking in at 623 yards -- the longest hole in Open Championship history. The Par 3s offer variety, with the iconic 8th hole, often referred to as "the postage stamp," playing as short as 99 yards. Despite its humble length, this hole will challenge players due to its small green layout.

The course begins with three shorter Par 4s but transitions to a back nine filled with longer, more technical Par 4s that require careful navigation. Holes No. 10, 11, and 12 feature challenging tee shots -- some even blind -- and demanding approaches to smaller greens. That stretch on No. 10, 11, and 12 accounted for the three toughest holes in 2016. Hold your breath when your golfers venture into that part of the course!

Hitting greens in regulation (GIR) and fairways will be paramount this week, as Royal Troon has historically produced GIR percentages significantly below the PGA Tour average. Key stats to focus on include recent strokes gained in approach play and, given the current forecast (more on that below), players who excel in windy conditions can be given a bump. Players' short games will also face rigorous tests, but without a strong long game, maintaining competitiveness on this course will be a formidable challenge.

There is no week in golf quite like Open Championship week so let’s lock in and get set for the year’s final Major!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

General Weather Overview: For the week, golfers will play in cooler temps, generally in the upper-50s/low-60s. Sunlight will be in short supply and, in typical Scottish fashion, rain chances will be present for much of the week with the most likely wet weather coming Thursday morning and throughout the day on Saturday. Winds will kick up at times over the weekend but the most challenging winds will be around on Thursday and Friday, ahead of the cut line.

• Thursday AM: 10-15 mph sustained winds with gusts kicking up to 20+ mph. Scattered showers are a possibility but nothing looks significant enough to cause a stoppage in play.

• Thursday PM: Sustained winds generally on the 15 mph side with ~25 mph gusts.

• Friday AM: 10 mph winds sustained, a bit stronger at times, with 20-25 mph gusts.

• Friday PM: Similar outlook to Friday AM. The sun may peek out around midday and throughout the afternoon.

• Weekend: In general, winds don’t look to be a major problem over the weekend, but I could imagine the forecast could change quite easily between now and then. As mentioned in the overview, Saturday could provide some wet conditions but whether or not that will lead to a stoppage remains to be seen.

⚖️Weather Verdict: We already have plenty of factors to account for in Major weeks so, with no glaring advantage in the current forecast, I see no reason to worry about the weather this week. No wave advantage.

The 152nd Open Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

3. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee | 10%

4. Driving Accuracy | 10%

5. Greens in Regulation | 10%

6. Birdie or Better % | 10%

7. Sand Save Percentage | 10%

8. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind that many golfers in this week’s field do not have enough (or any) measured PGA rounds this season needed to qualify for strokes gained data.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting twelve golfers that should be on your radar for Open Championship Week!

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $12.8k, FD: $12.9k | Odds: 6/1

This will be one of the more interesting “Scottie weeks” of the season. On one hand, he remains the clear-cut No. 1 golfer in the world who has won six of his last ten starts, with two other runner-ups in that stretch. On the other hand, he skipped the Scottish Open last week (always a good “tune-up” event ahead of the Open Championship) and hasn’t played in nearly a month since his victory at the Travelers. Scheffler also wasn’t overly sharp in his last Major appearance, finishing T-41 at the U.S. Open. This event is one he has yet to fully master as well with Open Championship finishes of 23rd, 21st, and 8th over the last three years -- perhaps that has some weight to it since he has not traditionally been dominant on links-style courses. All that being said, it’s still Scottie Scheffler and I believe he’ll actually check in lower-owned (than most would expect, anyway) based on the fact that he’s significantly more expensive than the next-closest golfer. Given the incredibly talented golfers that are priced down in the value tiers, we can still build some highly competitive, big-upside “Scottie lineups” this week.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $11.2k, FD: $11.8k | Odds: 14/1

Schauffele won’t be on my Open Championship betting slip for outright winner, but for DFS purposes, you will struggle to find a golfer with a better floor. His worst finish in his previous ten starts came by way of a T-18 at the RBC Heritage, he’s 16-of-16 made cuts on the season, and he has landed outside the top 25 just once all year (T-54 at Pebble Beach). He has dominated in 2024 Majors -- 8th at the Masters, won at the PGA Championship, and T-7th at the U.S. Open. Schauffele also landed a T-2nd at the PLAYERS Championship, golf’s unofficial “fifth major”. He is another golfer who hasn’t had a ton of high-end success at Open Championships, at least not since his runner-up finish in 2018 at Carnoustie, but his 17th and 15th place finishes in this tournament over the last two years are nothing to sneeze at. Schauffle also looked solid last week at the Scottish Open en route to a 15th-place finish. There are just very few weaknesses in his game at the moment and he’s been lighting it up on the big stages this season. As the 4th most expensive golfer on both sites, we will need him to be in contention come Sunday for him to truly pay off his high-end salaries, but outside of perhaps only Scottie… maaaybe Rory, Schauffele is the best bet to end the week inside the top 10.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.9k, FD: $11.3k | Odds: 16/1

Morikawa hit a brief slump back in March/early April but, ever since his T-3 at the Masters, he’s been dialed in and has procured nine consecutive top-16 finishes… although breaking through with a victory has alluded him this year. Morikawa has always been one of the best pure iron players in the world since turning pro, but it’s his short game that has been clicking lately as well. Morikawa has gained strokes around the green in six consecutive tournaments and gained strokes putting in four straight. His last two Open Championship appearances didn’t go well, with back-to-back missed cuts in 2022 and 2023, but he hoisted the Claret Jug in 2021 at Royal St. George’s, so we know he has the game to compete and win on these types of courses. As touched on in the course preview, accuracy is more important than distance at Royal Troon and Morikawa should hit more fairways than just about anyone else in the field (ranks 2nd in fairway accuracy). A T-4 at last week’s Scottish Open is also a nice indicator of incoming success this week.

Tyrrell Hatton | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.7k | Odds: 28/1

It’ll be another interesting week when it comes to seeing how ownership on the LIV Golf guys shakes out. Bryson DeChambeau (DK: $11.5k, FD: $11.9k) is the most expensive of the [LIV Golf] bunch, and he has certainly made his mark in Majors this year -- 1st at U.S. Open, 2nd at PGA Championship, and T-6 at the Masters. However, I like the idea of looking at a low-owned (and much cheaper than DeChambeau) Tyrrell Hatton. He’s a known hothead who routinely lets his emotions get the best of him, but that somehow doesn’t lead to full-on meltdowns… especially in Majors, where he has made 11 consecutive cuts. He has a high-end finish at this Royal Troon (T-5th in 2016) and he’s coming in off of a 3rd place finish and a victory in his last two LIV events. Hatton put up a good-not-great 26th place result at the U.S. Open, but he was a cold flat stick away from making more of a top-10ish push that week. He has posted 20th, 11th, and 6th place finishes in three of his last four Open Championships and he ranks 4th in this field in “windy conditions” splits. He deserves some exposure this week, especially if he’s going to be well under 10% owned.

Tony Finau | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.4k | Odds: 45/1

Finau is another notable golfer who chose not to play at the Scottish Open last week and, like Scottie Scheffler, we haven’t seen him since the Travelers last month. That said, I don’t believe I’ll sweat the brief layoff. Finau has been in outstanding form with three consecutive top-8 finishes, and he posted a pair of top-20s before that. Finau has, in general, always been a tremendous tee-to-green player (ranks 5th in SG: T2G in this field) but he has shown some improved play around the greens lately. In his last three starts, he has gained +10.44 strokes around the greens while having a positive putter in each tournament as well. Prior to his missed cut at Royal Liverpool GC last year, Finau had posted finishes of 28th, 15th, 3rd, 9th, 27th, and 18th in his previous six Open Championship appearances, so this is a Major he generally plays very well.

Tom Kim | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k | Odds: 45/1

Kim has been finding his rhythm in the ball striking department and it has led to six top-26 finishes in his last eight starts, including a pair of top-fives. He shot all four rounds under 70 at last week’s Scottish Open, bookended by a six-under round of 64 on Sunday where he gained +5.43 strokes ball striking in that single round. No one had a very realistic chance of catching Brian Harman at last year’s Open Championship at Royal Liverpool GC where he went on to win with a six-shot advantage, but Kim impressed with his T-2nd result at 7-under par. His old-school style of “fairways and greens” may not be flashy, but it is what is needed on difficult links courses like Royal Troon.

Wyndham Clark | DK: $8k, FD: $9.3k | Odds: 66/1

It’s not often you’ll find the world’s No. 5 ranked golfer priced this low in a Major, but that’s where we’ll find Wyndham Clark this week. It hasn’t been a remarkable 2024 campaign for the 2023 U.S. Open champion, but a back injury that he sustained in late March could be to blame for many of his lackluster finishes and missed cuts since then. In the short term, Clark has looked great with back-to-back top-10 finishes heading into this week, including a T-10 last week at the Scottish Open where, like the aforementioned Tom Kim, he went all four rounds under 70, including firing an eight-under round of 62 on Sunday. Clark profiled much more as a bomber, which we’re not necessarily looking for on this course. But I’d have to imagine that he’ll club down on many holes to prioritize accuracy over his elite distance. If he finds his fair share of fairways, Clark could be a sneaky bet to contend on Sunday. He ranks 2nd in the field in Birdie or Better % and is 3rd in Sand Save %, which will come in handy as every golfer will inevitably find themselves in some of those cavernous pot bunkers. It’s still more of a gut play, but if Clark is truly back to, or close to, 100% health, he could turn into a real threat at Royal Troon.

Brian Harman | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.8k | Odds: 70/1

Harman prepares to make a title defense as the reigning Open Championship victor. While he will have more media responsibilities than most other golfers, which is just added distractions, he has never struck me as a golfer who lets that sort of stuff interrupt his game. The putter has been a little cold lately but Harman is still playing solid golf heading into this week with a T-9 at the Travelers sandwiched between a pair of T-21s at the U.S. Open and Scottish Open.

Sungjae Im | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.5k | Odds: 60/1

Im has missed the cut at all three Major tournaments this season but he has essentially been lights out any other week dating back to the RBC Heritage in mid-April. In his seven non-Major starts since the RBC Heritage, Im has boasted finishes of 12th, 4th, 9th, 8th, 3rd, 12th, and 4th (Scottish Open). Perhaps he’s simply adding too much pressure on himself in Major weeks but he has legitimately been one of the best players in the world outside of those last three big tournaments. At these DFS price points, especially at $6,900 on DraftKings, it’s worth it to see if he can shake the Major monkey off of his back. Sungjae landed a T-20 at last year’s Open Championship so we know he can post a solid result in this event.

Louis Oosthuizen | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.9k | Odds: 60/1

Oosty hasn’t competed in any of this year’s three Majors up to this point and, unless you’re a big LIV Golf fan, he’s been out of sight, out of mind for a while now. While he hasn’t broken through with any victories, Oosthuizen is 5th in the LIV Golf point standings and has snagged five top-8 finishes in his 10 starts this season. He ranks 3rd on the LIV Golf tour in fairway accuracy and is 1st in scrambling. I’m not placing too much stake in LIV Golf stats but I believe he can still hang in these sort of stacked Major fields and his 60/1 odds to win -- some of the best odds in this price range -- tell me that the sportsbooks have that same belief.

Romain Langasque | DK: $6k, FD: $8k | Odds: 250/1

There are plenty of talented golfers sprinkled throughout the bottom-of-the-barrel pricing tiers so we can get super creative with a lot of these guys. Langasque is very much a “boom or bust” type of player from the DP World Tour, but he has back-to-back top 10s heading into this week, headlined by a solo 3rd place finish at the Scottish Open. His iron play looks to be in nice form lately and he has made the cut in two of his last three Open Championship appearances, including a respectable 33rd-place finish last year.

Matteo Manassero | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7k | Odds: 250/1

Manassero has been playing some quality golf for over two months now, making six of his last seven worldwide cuts with four top-15s, including a T-15 at the Scottish Open. His lone missed cut did come at the U.S. Open… and it was a bad one with a +14 score over the first two rounds. That said, the 31-year-old Italian will be on a much more comfortable layout -- the type that he’s more accustomed to playing. Manassero hasn’t competed in an Open Championship since 2016, also at Royal Troon, where he missed the cut by two strokes. He has had some Open Championship success in his career, with a T-13 in 2009 and a T-19 in 2014. Now that he has regained some form, he’s worth a speculative punt in more aggressive lineup builds. Manassero may still be a long shot to win with 250/1 odds, but those are easily the best odds among golfers in this rock-bottom salary tier.

Open Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats/course fit model. Below those rankings lists are the top 25 golfers in recent form (last five starts) and long-term form (last 10 starts), sorted by average finishing position. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Open Championship DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

Open Championship Extras 📑

Here are a few additional rankings lists that could come in handy when researching this week’s tournament.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.