By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

Whether you are a brand new or super casual golf fan, a diehard PGA Tour fanatic, or consider yourself to land somewhere in between, this is a week that brings fans from all walks of life together. It’s Masters Week 2023! As many know, this is the only PGA Major which is played at the same course every year. Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia is home to some of the game’s most legendary moments, and this week this iconic course will bring us the 87th edition of The Masters. Within this highly exclusive 88-player field, 49 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world will be teeing it up, as well as about a dozen older past champions along with a few amateurs who earned special invites. You may also notice some familiar faces that we haven’t seen compete in a PGA field in a while. The LIV Golf Tour will have 18 qualifying players in attendance. This includes well-known names like Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Bubba Watson, among others. The presence of the LIV Golf players will certainly add an intriguing dynamic to this year’s Masters Tournament. Finally, the Big Cat is back on the prowl as Tiger Woods looks to vie for a sixth green jacket.

You better believe any golf fan with a pulse is going to be glued to all the action waiting to take place down at Augusta National in the coming days! Also, remember that The Masters has its own unique cut rule where the top 50 players (including ties) will make the 36-hole cut.

Masters Week Strategy 💡

The Masters is typically a tournament where I recommend getting a bit aggressive and taking a more GPP-heavy approach (but if you’re also playing cash games, a balanced build should work out quite well). As is the case every year, this is a smaller but extremely talented field and DFS pricing is very loose. You can likely go ahead and nix the roughly dozen or so golfers who are either older past champions (who receive automatic grandfathered invitations each year) along with the amateur players who are in the field through special qualification rules. Sure, a couple of those guys may make the weekend and possibly create some noise, but the cream rises to the top at Augusta National and you generally only want to focus on the golfers who are proven and in their prime.

That will pretty much leave us with about 70 or so golfers to truly consider as viable DFS plays for this week. Given that a tying score on the cut line is pretty much a guarantee, we’ll likely see around 55-60 golfers make it past the 36-hole cut. As a result, the 6/6 rate should be much higher than most other tournaments, that is unless several chalky golfers manage to miss the cut. You’ll need to figure out which golfers you want to take firm stands on and which guys you’ll decide to lower exposure to or simply fade altogether. In my GPP player pool, I’d either want to be considerably under or far above the field in terms of player exposure. For instance, if we get closer to Thursday and it seems like Scottie Scheffler is going to be about 30% owned in GPPs, I would either look to set my Scheffler exposure to around 5-10% or go heavy with 45+% exposure, depending on how I ultimately decided to construct my player pool. To each their own, of course, but this is just how I approach Masters Week DFS! The important thing is to trust your process, have fun with it, and enjoy the greatest week in golf!

The Course Preview ⛳

Augusta National Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,510 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Type: Parkland

Course Difficulty Rank Last 5 Years: 3rd, 7th, 11th, 16th, 7th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +4, +3, E, +3, +5

Augusta National GC is a traditional Par 72, with four Par 5s and four Par 3s, and it extends 7,510 yards. The average round at Augusta National last year was +1.95 over par and it is always a very tough track to tame. You could argue that course history matters at Augusta National as much as it does on just about any other course on Tour. This course challenges every aspect of a golfer’s game, so creativity and having the ability to deal with uncomfortable situations are the keys to a successful Masters week. With an abundance of elevation shifts and three of the Par 3s measuring in at 180 yards or shorter, Augusta National ultimately plays even longer than its official scorecard length would indicate. Off the tee, golfers will face wide tree-lined fairways that are about 20 yards wider than the PGA Tour average. The rough is traditionally very light but there are 41 bunkers and six water hazards to contend with. In place of troublesome rough, there are many areas off of the fairways where soft pinestraw could force golfers into hitting some difficult approach shots. The bentgrass greens are also some of the most challenging greens that golfers will face all season. In terms of surface area, they are on the larger side by PGA Tour standards; however, they can run extremely fast (13.5+ on the stimpmeter) and many of the green complexes feature some wicked undulations. The majority of the greens look almost like upside-down bowls and have drastic slopes on the edges which can cause some shots to run off in frustrating fashion. Those runoff shots can be especially common when a golfer is chipping it just off of the green or out of nearby a bunker.

As mentioned, players will have to be creative in order to find success here, and gaining strokes around the greens is one way to do just that. Players should also be expected to get much of their scoring done on the four Par 5s, as they are the easiest holes on the course. Where someone can truly separate themselves is through their Par 4 scoring. Since 2012, the leader in par 4 scoring at The Masters has finished 8th or better every year and has won seven times.

We’ll dive deeper into the forecast below, but the weather looks to play a definite factor at Augusta National this week. There is some light rain in the forecast on Thursday and Friday, but it looks as if they’ll be playable conditions. Saturday is the real concern and has the potential to be a complete washout with widespread rain expected throughout the day. The rain could soften up the course a bit and allow the greens to be more receptive but a wet course will also play longer. As a result, we may want to give golfers who are long and straight off the tee more of an edge due to those course conditions. We’ll look for golfers who excel in those categories, throw in a mix of strong course history and recent form, and we’ll see if we can find ourselves a Masters champ!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Light rain in the forecast. Sustained winds around 5 mph with 10-15 mph gusts.

Thursday PM: Mostly sunny with very light winds.

Friday AM: Calm conditions with very manageable winds under 10 mph.

Friday PM: Wind speeds begin to pick up around 1-2 pm, close to 15 mph sustained with 20-25 mph gusts. Some isolated storms may roll through the area as well but a brief stoppage may be the worst-case scenario.

Weekend: As mentioned earlier, Saturday has some all-day rain in the forecast. Whether they’ll be able to play through it is yet to be determined but 10 mph sustained winds with 20+ mph gusts and cooler temps around 50 degrees will make for some all-around tough conditions. The threat of rain exits on Sunday, but it will still be fairly windy. The Saturday conditions leave the door open for a potential Monday finish.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Based on the current forecast, there looks to be a fairly clear advantage for the PM/AM wave. The winds will be at their calmest on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning with the main advantage coming from avoiding the stronger Friday afternoon winds and gusts. This doesn’t mean to fade the AM/PM golfers altogether, but bumping up exposure to the PM/AM wave makes sense. And, perhaps it may be worth building some “PM/AM only” lineups just in case the advantage is more noticeable than expected.

The Masters Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 10%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage| 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind that many golfers in this week’s field do not have enough (or any) measured PGA rounds this season needed to qualify for strokes gained data.

The Masters Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting 10 golfers who should be on your radar for Masters Week.

Scottie Scheffler | DK: $11.1k, FD: $12.1k

Odds: 7/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #2

Overall Model Rank: #1

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd P4 AVG, 5th SG: App, 7th P5 BoB%

Golfers can reach a level of “locked in” and then there is apparently some level above that which Scottie Scheffler has breached. You have to go all the way back to October, 11 starts ago, to find an event in which Scottie Scheffler didn’t finish inside the top 15. He won in an elite field at The PLAYERS last month, he won at the rowdiest event in golf at the WM Phoenix Open in February, and he returns to Augusta as the reigning Masters champion. Scheffler simply looks unflappable when he’s competing week in and week out. While he may not be the type of charismatic player that many would want the world’s number-one golfer to be, he just takes care of business and makes it look easy. He has all the tools in his bag to go back-to-back and he gets the advantage of drawing a PM/AM tee time this week to boot.

Rory McIlroy | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.9k

Odds: 7/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #4

Overall Model Rank: #4

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 1st Driving Distance, 2nd P5 BoB%, 6th SG: App

Rory slipped up by missing the cut at The PLAYERS but he bounced back soon after and had a great showing at the Match Play event two weeks ago, narrowly losing the 3rd place match to Scottie Scheffler. When it comes to course history, Rory is elite here. While he has yet to don the green jacket, McIlroy has racked up seven top 10s at The Masters in the last nine years. He’s the longest player off of the tee in this field, he dominates Par 5s, and his approach play is among the best in the world. He’s also one of the best putters on bentgrass greens, ranking 8th in that department (in this week’s field) and he’ll look to benefit from an advantageous PM/AM tee time.

Max Homa | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.4k

Odds: 30/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #14

Overall Model Rank: #7

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 4th P4 AVG, 4th SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 7th SG: App

Homa has been dialed in all season, making 10-of-10 cuts with two wins and five top 10s. Course history may sway folks away from him this week. Homa has made just 1-of-3 cuts at The Masters with his lone made cut producing a lackluster T-48 last year. However, he’s coming into this year’s event in the best form of his career and ranking 7th or better in SG: Approach, Par 4 Average, and SG: Putting on bentgrass greens is a strong recipe for success. He’ll also draw a preferred PM/AM tee time this week.

Collin Morikawa | DK: $9.1k, FD: $11k

Odds: 25/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #11

Overall Model Rank: #12

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd SG: App, 5th P5 BoB%, 16th P4 AVG

Morikawa heads into his fourth Masters appearance and he has improved upon his finishing position in each progressive year -- 44th in 2020, 18th in 2021, and a 5th place finish last year. His iron play is absolutely elite in any given week and he’s an excellent Par 5 scorer. He already has a pair of Major championship victories under his belt (2021 Open, 2020 PGA Championship) and he could just be a hot week with the putter (52nd SG: Putt - Bentgrass) away from vying for a green jacket. Morikawa is yet another high-caliber golfer who will be teeing off in the PM/AM wave.

Cameron Young | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.5k

Odds: 28/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #21

Overall Model Rank: #23

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 2nd Driving Distance, 15th SG: App, 15th P5 BoB%

Young nearly notched his breakthrough PGA victory at the Match Play event two weeks ago but ultimately fell to Sam Burns in the finals. Regardless, the way he competed at that event provides a high level of confidence heading into Masters week. Young has not missed a cut in nine events this season and his length off of the tee will make him an exciting golfer to watch this week. If he can get his short game to click, he’s a definite threat to push for a podium finish.

Sam Burns | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.2k

Odds: 40/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: #36

Overall Model Rank: #35

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 4th SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 7th Driving Distance, 27th P4 AVG

Burns ran through a mini-slump with back-to-back missed cuts at The Genesis Invitational and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. But he followed those missed cuts up with a respectable T-35 in a deep field at The PLAYERS, a solo 6th finish at the Valspar, and a grueling win at the Dell Technologies Match Play event after defeating the formidable Scottie Scheffler in the semifinals and Cameron Young in the finals. Burns squeaked in a 53rd-place finish in his Masters debut last year but, if he shows off the same form that he had two weeks ago, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Burns will also draw a preferred PM/AM tee time this week.

Corey Conners | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.4k

Odds: 45/1 | Cash & GPP

Key Stats Only Rank: #44

Overall Model Rank: #19

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 20th P5 BoB%, 27th SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 30th SG: App

Conners is just one of two players in the field that has finished top 10 at The Masters in each of the last three years -- Cameron Smith being the other. Conners took home the trophy at last week’s Valero Texas Open so the form is clearly there. I’ll usually avoid golfers immediately following a win but Conners just sets up too well with the course history, and the preferred PM/AM tee time, and he owns some enticing DFS price tags this week. He may not crush it on the stat sheet, but Conners is a rock-solid golfer who checks off plenty of boxes this week.

Brooks Koepka | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k

Odds: 33/1 | GPP Preferred

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: N/A

Figuring out what to do with the LIV Golf players in this field will be a bit of a conundrum this week. As mentioned in the intro, 18 LIV golfers qualified for this year’s Masters, but we haven’t seen them compete in a PGA-caliber field in many, many months. One thing we do know about Brooks Koepka is that he lives for Major Championships and I’m sure he will set out to prove himself this week. His best Masters finish was a T-2 in 2019 but he owns four other Major championship victories (two US Open wins & two PGA Championship wins). Koepka is also coming off a win at the most recent LIV Golf event in Orlando. And you may notice that Koepka’s 33/1 odds to win are the best odds you’ll find out of comparatively-priced golfers in this range. Also, not to be repetitive with this point, but Koepka will also draw a PM/AM tee time.

Danny Willett | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k

Odds: 125/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: #40

Overall Model Rank: #31

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: 12th SG: ATG, 33rd SG: Putt (Bentgrass), 37th P4 AVG

Since his Masters win in 2016, Danny Willett has had a mixed bag of results at Augusta National. However, he did land a 25th-place finish in 2020 and landed a strong 12th place Masters result last year. Willett enters on the heels of five consecutive made cuts on the PGA Tour and his tee-to-green game has been clicking nicely. The recent form, course history, and PM/AM tee time draw will make Willett an appealing value option.

Gordon Sargent | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k

Odds: 750/1 | Punt Play

Key Stats Only Rank: N/A

Overall Model Rank: N/A

Top 3 Key Stat Trends: N/A

I usually steer clear of the amateurs that qualify for The Masters each year, but Gordon Sargent might be an exception to that rule this week. An amateur has not made the Masters cut line since 2020 but Sargent will look to break that drought. He’s a sophomore at Vanderbilt who is the reigning NCAA champion and the No. 1 player in the World Amateur Golf Rankings. He has landed four wins in his last 15 collegiate events with his worst finish being a T-7. During a Monday practice round with Max Homa and Justin Thomas, Sargent was reportedly driving it far past them on a routine basis. When asked about Sargent, Homa stated that he is a “…phenomenal golfer. Really nice kid. Hits it 95 miles. He was so far by us it's crazy.” You never want to place too much faith in any amateur golfer competing on such a big stage at The Masters, but Sargent has a highly intriguing skillset and is priced at or near the bare minimum on both sites. He’ll have a PM/AM tee time draw working in his favor as well.

The Masters DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.