By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

Golf fans, ranging from casual to diehard, come together for this week. It’s Masters Week 2024 and the coveted green jacket is up for grabs! As many know, this is the only PGA Major which is played at the same course every year. Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia is home to some of the game’s most legendary moments, and this week this iconic course will bring us the 88th edition of The Masters. Every golfer ranked inside the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings will be teeing it up this week, as well as about a dozen older past-their-prime champions along with a handful of amateurs who earned special invites. You may also notice some familiar faces that we haven’t seen compete in a PGA field in a while. The LIV Golf Tour will have 13 qualifying players in attendance. This includes well-known names like reigning Masters champ Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Bubba Watson, among others. For the second year in a row, the presence of the LIV Golf players will add an intriguing dynamic to this Masters Tournament. Finally, the Big Cat is back on the prowl as Tiger Woods looks to vie for a sixth green jacket. The Masters also has its own unique cut rule where the top 50 golfers (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will move on to compete in weekend play.

You better believe any golf fan with a pulse is going to be glued to all the action waiting to take place down at Augusta National in the coming days! We’ve got some massive DFS prize pools out there as well so let’s see if we can get some big takedowns this week! Best of luck!

Masters Week Strategy 💡

The Masters is typically a tournament where I recommend getting a bit aggressive and taking a more GPP-heavy approach (but if you’re also playing cash games, a balanced build should work out quite well). As is the case every year, this is a smaller but extremely talented field and DFS pricing is very loose. You can likely go ahead and nix the roughly dozen or so golfers who are either older past-their-prime champions (who receive automatic grandfathered invitations each year) along with the five amateur players who are in the field through special qualification rules. Sure, a couple of those guys may make the weekend and possibly create some noise, but the cream rises to the top at Augusta National and you generally only want to focus on the golfers who are proven, in their prime, and come in with some good form.

That will pretty much leave us with about 70 or so golfers to truly consider as viable DFS plays for this week. Given that a tying score on the cut line is pretty much a guarantee, we’ll likely see around 55-60 golfers make it past the 36-hole cut. As a result, the 6/6 rate should be much higher than most other tournaments, that is unless several chalky golfers manage to miss the cut. You’ll need to figure out which golfers you want to take firm stands on and which guys you’ll decide to lower exposure to or simply fade altogether. In my GPP player pool, I’d either want to be considerably under or far above the field in terms of player exposure. For instance, if we get closer to Thursday and it seems like Scottie Scheffler is going to be about 35% owned in GPPs, I would either look to set my Scheffler exposure to around 5-10% or go heavy with 50+% exposure, depending on how I ultimately decide to construct my player pool. To each their own, of course, but this is just how I approach Masters Week DFS! The important thing is to trust your process, have fun with it, and enjoy the greatest week in golf!

The Course Preview ⛳

Augusta National Golf Club

Par 72 | 7,545 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Course Type: Parkland

Course Difficulty Rank Last 5 Years: 6th, 3rd, 7th, 11th, 16th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +3, +4, +3, E, +3

Winners & Winning Scores Last 5 Years

2023: Jon Rahm (-12)

2022: Scottie Scheffler (-10)

2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)

2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)

2019: Tiger Woods (-19)

Augusta National GC is a traditional Par 72, with four Par 5s and four Par 3s, and it extends 7,545 yards. The average round at Augusta National last year was +1.00 over par and it is always a very tough track to tame. You could argue that course history matters at Augusta National more than any other course on Tour. This course challenges every aspect of a golfer’s game, so creativity and having the ability to deal with uncomfortable situations are the keys to a successful Masters week. Due to an abundance of elevation shifts, an extremely ‘hilly’ layout, and three of the Par 3s measuring in at 180 yards or shorter, Augusta National ultimately plays even longer than its official scorecard length would indicate. Off the tee, golfers will face wide tree-lined fairways that are about 20 yards wider than the PGA Tour average. Finding the fairway here is not a real challenge and golfers at last year’s Masters posted a 74.9% fairway accuracy, which is far above PGA Tour average by about 17 percentage points. The rough is traditionally very light as well but there are 41 bunkers and six water hazards to contend with. In place of hard-to-hit fairways and troublesome rough, there are many areas off of the fairways where soft pinestraw can force golfers into hitting some difficult approach shots. The bentgrass greens are also some of the most challenging greens that golfers will face all season. In terms of surface area, they are on the larger side by PGA Tour standards, however, the field typically posts a lower-than-average greens in regulation percentage at this course. The greens can also run extremely fast (13.5+ on the stimpmeter) and many of the green complexes feature some wicked undulations. The majority of the greens look almost like upside-down bowls and have drastic slopes on the edges which will cause some shots to run off in frustrating fashion. Those runoff shots can be especially common when a golfer is chipping it just off of the green or out of greenside a bunker.

As mentioned, players will have to be creative in order to find success here, and gaining strokes around the greens is one way to do just that. Players should also be expected to get much of their scoring done on the four Par 5s, as they are the easiest holes on the course. Where someone can truly separate themselves is through their Par 4 scoring. Since 2012, the leader in par 4 scoring at The Masters has finished 8th or better every year and has won eight times.

We’ll dive deeper into the Masters forecast below, but the weather looks to play a definite factor at Augusta National this week. There is some heavy rain in the forecast on Thursday, and strong winds look to come into play for each of the opening two rounds. Things calm down over the weekend but there is no question that some additional havoc will take place due to the weather conditions on Thursday and Friday. Thursday’s rain could soften up the course a bit and allow the greens to be more receptive but a wet course will also cause an already lengthy course to play even longer. As a result, we may want to give golfers who are long off the tee more of an edge due to those course conditions. We’ll look for golfers who excel in the aforementioned categories, throw in a mix of strong course history and recent form, and we’ll see if we can find ourselves a Masters champ!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday AM: Rain is likely in the morning hours, and it looks to be heavy at times. Sustained winds will check in at 15+ mph with some brutal gusts upwards of 40+ mph.

Thursday PM: Rain may still be around into the early afternoon hours before clearing by mid-afternoon. Winds will still be an obvious issue -- 20 mph sustained with 30-35 mph gusts.

Friday AM: Conditions will at least be dry and sunny for Friday’s action but troublesome winds will still be around. Sustained winds around 15 mph with 25-30 mph gusts.

Friday PM: Sustained winds tick up a bit to 20-ish mph. Gusts still around 25-30 mph.

Weekend: MUCH better overall conditions over the Saturday/Sunday rounds. It will still be a tad windy, but sustained wind speeds will hang mostly around 10 mph and gusts won’t be nearly as strong as they will be on Thursday and Friday. No rain in the weekend forecast and temps will heat up to around 80 degrees by the early afternoon each day.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Regardless of which wave golfers draw this week, they’ll be up against some tough conditions over the first two rounds no matter what. We may see a lengthy stoppage in play due to those Thursday morning rainstorms, in which case, the Thursday AM golfers will get most/all of their opening rounds pushed into the afternoon. I do believe a wave advantage could develop, but there’s no real way of pinpointing which wave draw would be the most favorable at this time. Ultimately, I’d say proceed with tee times not having a significant impact on your DFS decision-making but, if you’re deploying more than a handful of lineups, it may be worth building some lineups exclusively featuring golfers from one specific wave just to see how it pans out.

2024 Masters Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 30%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 20%

4. Driving Distance | 10%

5. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage| 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Note: Keep in mind that many golfers in this week’s field do not have enough (or any) measured PGA rounds this season needed to qualify for strokes gained data.

Golfers in the Spotlight 🎯

Spotlighting ten golfers that should be on your radar for Masters Week!

Jon Rahm | DK: $11.2k, FD: $12.2k | Odds: 12/1

There is no questioning the fact that Scottie Scheffler (DK: $12.1k, FD: $13k), a 4-to-1 favorite, is the man to beat this week. If there is anyone in this elite field who can go toe-to-toe with Scheffler on such a tough course, it would be reigning Masters champion Jon Rahm. As most golf fans are aware, Rahm made his exodus to LIV Golf following the conclusion of the 2023 PGA Tour season. I’d be lying if I said I paid any attention to what transpires on the LIV Golf tour -- the format is just not something I’m interested in watching. That said, Jon Rahm has been doing typical Jon Rahm things over there and has finished inside the top eight in all five of his LIV Golf starts while ranking 1st in average birdie per round (5.07), 2nd in GIR% (74.8%), 6th in driving distance (311.9 yards/drive), and 7th in scrambling. I don’t believe anyone is feeling sorry for Rahm, who signed a LIV Golf contract reportedly worth over $300 million, but there is buzz that he isn’t a big fan of the LIV Golf format and is ready to compete in a “normal” golf tournament again. He’ll return to Augusta National GC where he has never missed a cut in seven tries and has boasted five top-10 finishes within his last six Masters appearances. Rahm is a fierce competitor, to begin with, and now, like many of the LIV golfers, he comes in with a bit of a chip on his shoulder on a track that he has dominated in his professional career.

Xander Schauffele | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.9k | Odds: 18/1

When considering form, course history, course fit, and overall metrics, Xander Schauffele is a guy who checks off a ton of boxes. He has notched six top-10 finishes in eight starts this season (no missed cuts) and he has finished 17th or better at the Masters in four of the last five years, including a runner-up in 2019, 3rd place finish in 2021, and 10th place finish last year. Two significant stat categories we need to weigh heavily this week are Par 4 scoring and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Schauffele trails only Scottie Scheffler in Par 4 scoring and he’s fourth in this field in SG: ATG. If the Thursday rains soften the course and cause it to play even longer than its already daunting 7,500+ yard scorecard length, Schauffele may have fewer issues than most in that scenario. His long irons have been lethal and he leads the field in proximity to the hole from 200+ yards. You’re getting a massive amount of top 10 equity out of Schauffele this week and you could argue that he should be the fourth or even third-most expensive player in this field -- as it stands now, he’s the sixth-most expensive golfer on DraftKings, and seventh-most expensive on FanDuel.

Hideki Matsuyama | DK: $9k, FD: $11.1k | Odds: 20/1

You can’t take Augusta National course horses without discussing Hideki Matsuyama. The 2021 Masters champ has missed just one cut at Augusta National in 12 tries, and that lone missed cut came all the way back in 2014. In his nine Masters starts since then, Matsuyama has notched an astounding eight top-20 finishes, including three top-10s (and, of course, his win in 2021). Matsuyama also comes in with some superb form; he has made 9-of-9 cuts this season and has posted top-12 finishes in each of his last four starts, including a win at the Genesis Invitational in mid-February. He is a wizard around the greens (ranks 1st in SG: ATG) and he’s just a hot week with the putter away from vying for a second career green jacket.

Cameron Smith | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k | Odds: 35/1

Outside of Jon Rahm, I don’t expect any of the other 12 LIV Golf competitors in this field to garner too much attention or ownership -- at least not to the point where I’d consider them to be “chalk.” Cameron Smith has been out of the PGA spotlight for a while, but he’s been a menace at Majors in his career and is one of just four players in this field to have finished top 10 at the Masters in three of the last four years -- Jon Rahm, Corey Conners, and Patrick Reed, being the others. He has yet to miss a cut at the Masters in seven starts and he has landed four top-10 finishes, including three top-fives. The only factor that would make me a little hesitant to pull the trigger on Smith is the fact that he was forced to withdraw from the most recent LIV Golf event last week in Miami. Reportedly, the withdrawal was due to food poisoning so, at the very least, it wasn’t because of any sort of mechanical injury. As long as Smith has recovered from the illness, he should be poised to compete for his second career Major victory.

Matt Fitzpatrick | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.9k | Odds: 35/1

We know golfers are going to be battling the elements, specifically wind, over the first two rounds. This is where many European golfers can often show off an inherent advantage when it comes to playing in windy conditions. When looking at golfers who have excelled in windy tournaments, Matt Fitzpatrick ranks sixth in this field behind only Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy, Akshay Bhatia, Collin Morikawa, and Scottie Sheffler. Most of those names are moderately to extremely more expensive than Fitzpatrick with the exception being Akshay Bhatia, who is coming off of a win at last week’s Valero Texas Open, but also dislocated his shoulder in the process and isn’t going to be 100% even if he does play this week. Fitzpatrick’s win equity is noticeably higher than other golfers priced around him, and he heads into his tenth career Masters appearance having made 8-of-9 cuts at Augusta National. His last two Masters starts have resulted in 10th (2023) and 14th (2022) place finishes and he enters with some excellent short-term form with a 10th place finish last week and a solo 5th place result at The PLAYERS Championship. Fitzpatrick lack of success to begin this season may have slid him toward the back of many folks’ minds, but he remains the 10th-ranked golfer in the world for a reason and he sets up as an excellent mid-range target this week.

Sahith Theegala | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.7k | Odds: 50/1

Theegala’s strengths as a golfer match up remarkably well for Augusta National and, looking back, it’s not a surprise that he was able to impress with a 9th place finish last season in his first ever Masters appearance. Theegala is a stellar putter, he’s among the longest drivers on the PGA Tour, he is skilled around the greens, and he’s an all-around solid scorer on Par 4s and Par 5s. The one knock on his game has been the tendency to spray the ball off the tee and miss fairways. That weakness won’t be as apparent at Augusta National, where wide-open fairways offer some forgiveness to errant tee shots. That’s not to say that he can be too wild with the driver and get away unscathed, but it shouldn’t be a constant concern. Theegala has missed just one cut in nine events this season and three of his four top 10s on the year have come within his last five starts. Don’t be surprised if Theegala builds upon his strong Masters debut from last season with an even better performance this go ‘round.

Si Woo Kim | DK: $7.1k, FD: $9.3k | Odds: 70/1

Unless we’re considering his 12th-place finish in 2021, Si Woo Kim has yet to have a breakthrough at the Masters. However, in lieu of any flashy top 10 finishes, Kim has made six consecutive cuts at the Masters and has posted five top 35 finishes. He’s also bringing strong form into Masters week after finishing 17th or better in four of his previous five starts. Kim lacks a big driver and his putter can routinely go cold, but he brings positive splits on both bentgrass greens and fast greens. Kim is also outstanding around the greens (6th in SG: ATG) and scores very well on Par 4s (8th in P4 Scoring) -- scoring well on the Par 4s is where golfers can pick up the most separation from the field at Augusta National. The upside can be brought into question, but you won’t find many more reliable guys than Si Woo Kim out of this price range.

Adrian Meronk | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | Odds: 175/1

One final LIV Golf member who piques my interest will be Adrian Meronk. Before joining LIV, Meronk posted five top-15 finishes over his previous seven starts on the DP World Tour, which included a win and a runner-up finish. Over on the LIV circuit, his last four starts have resulted in finishes of 17th, 15th, 6th, and 9th. He is plenty long off the tee, averaging 305.2 yards/drive on the LIV Golf Tour, and he ranks T-11th in birdies per round (4.27), tied with Brooks Koepka and Tyrrell Hatton -- two LIV golfers who are considerably more expensive than Meronk this week. Meronk failed to make the cut in his Masters debut last year, but he only missed the cut line by two shots so it isn’t as if he completely bombed. And, I’d much rather take a shot on a guy who has two rounds of competitive experience at Augusta National as opposed to none. Meronk also owns positive splits in windy conditions and, if he carries his recent momentum into this week, Meronk should get past the cut line and have the chance to make some noise on the weekend.

Jake Knapp | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | Odds: 175/1

This is perhaps my biggest wildcard among the golfers I’m spotlighting but, outside of Knapp coming off of an ugly missed cut a couple of weeks ago and this being his Masters debut, I can’t think of many things to knock him on this week. Does he have great distance off the tee? 9th in this field in driving distance -- check. Is he a solid iron player? 12th in SG: Approach -- check. Can he work his way out of a jam around the greens? 23rd in SG: ATG -- check. Is his putter generally reliable? 27th in SG: Putting -- check. Like the aforementioned Sahith Theegala, Knapp is a long hitter who can sometimes spray the ball into some bad positions off of the fairway. He can get away with some of those errant shots here and he owns all of the tools needed to succeed at Augusta National GC.

Denny McCarthy | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.2k | Odds: 125/1

Following his runner-up finish at last week’s Valero Texas Open, this punt play probably isn’t going to sneak by many people. Nonetheless, even with Masters pricing coming out before the conclusion of last week’s tournament, McCarthy shouldn’t have been this cheap to begin with. He has secured 8-of-9 cuts this season and posted a handful of solid all-around results before the runner-up at Valero. McCarthy’s ball striking leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s got one of the best short games in the world and he does a great job at avoiding the big numbers. We’re going to see some ugly scorecards over the first couple of rounds due to those high winds, and McCarthy at least has the tools to minimize the damage. This will be McCarthy’s Masters debut, but he’s more than worth a punt at just $200 above the minimum salary on both sites.

2024 Masters DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Note: Due to not qualifying for PGA strokes gained data, the LIV Golf players are excluded from these rankings.

2024 Masters DFS Cheat Sheet📑

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2024 Masters Extras 📑

Here are a few additional rankings lists that could come in handy when researching this week’s tournament.

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.