By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour moseys its way back down to the Lone Star State as golfers get set to tee it up for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, which will be hosted at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. This tournament has been around since 1944, but this course had only just made its PGA Tour debut for this event in 2021. So this will be only the fifth year in which we’ll see the pros tee it up at TPC Craig Ranch, although some Korn Ferry Tour events have been held here in years past.

This will be a full-field event featuring 156 golfers. The standard cut rule is back in play where the top 65 players (including ties) on the leaderboard after 36 holes will make it past the cut line and advance into weekend play. Following a stretch of golf where we had plenty of high-profile events, many top golfers have elected to take this week off. However, you’ll still notice plenty of recognizable names with 37 of the top 100 ranked golfers in the world on-site, headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. Another signature event hits the schedule next week (Truist Championship) which will be followed by the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow the following week. Many golfers in this field are not yet qualified for those next two more prestigious tournaments so they can use this week as a platform to catapult their name into qualification. This should be another great week of golf so let’s get into it!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC Craig Ranch

Par 71 | 7,414 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Cut Line Last 4 Years: -6, -4, -5, -6

Course Difficulty Rank Last 4 Years: 44th, 42nd, 47th, 47th

TPC Craig Ranch is a Par 71 that extends just over 7,400 yards. This course formerly played as a Par 72 but the Par 5 No. 12 hole was converted to a 507-yard Par 4 in 2023. PGA Tour players have torn this course up each of the last four years -- KH Lee was a back-to-back winner with scores of 25-under (2021) and 26-under (2022) before Jason Day reigned victorious with a 23-under score in 2023, which was matched by last year’s winner, Taylor Pendrith, at 23-under par. So, the main point to make is that, in decent weather conditions, golfers can shoot some very low rounds here. The average round score to par last year was 2.5-under, to give you an idea of what to expect this go ‘round.

Off the tee, golfers will see rolling fairways that are above average in width and feature bouncy Zoysia grass. The rough has previously been fairly light and manageable in the 2021 & 2022 seasons but was grown out slightly more in each of the last two years, which clearly didn’t have a significant impact on scoring conditions. Scattered trees and bunkers border many of these fairways, which are mostly straight instead of doglegged. Water hazards, which are generally smaller bodies of water like streams and creeks instead of ponds and lakes, will technically come into play on about 14 of the holes. Ultimately, that water should not play a major factor outside of a few holes that reside primarily down the closing stretch on the back nine. Golfers would have to be either very unlucky or very wayward out of the tee box to put their ball into the drink more than once or twice the entire week. With all factors considered, fairway accuracy off of the tee shouldn’t be overly vital on this course.

None of the Par 5s extend more than 570 yards, so those three holes will provide the best birdie opportunities and will be reachable in two shots by much of the field. Over the last three seasons, the Par 5s represented three of the four easiest holes on the course so golfers must score low on those holes if they wish to truly contend. Longer hitters could have an edge on the Par 4s as seven will measure in at over 450 yards. When tracking your favorite players, you can anticipate that the aforementioned converted 507-yard Par 4 No. 12 hole will play as the most difficult hole of the week, followed closely by the 483-yard Par 4 No. 16 hole. Long iron accuracy will be vital as well with plenty of approach shots coming from a distance of 200+ yards to the pin. The bentgrass greens are above average in size and should produce a high GIR percentage (72.3% GIR% in 2024, +6.4% above average), and they are set to run at moderate speeds of around 11.5 on the stimpmeter. Targeting golfers who generally roll it well on bentgrass greens is never a bad idea, especially when there are so few course defenses to contend with elsewhere. The primary course defense at TPC Craig Ranch is the Texas winds, which may cause some issues this week, but more on that below in the weather section.

Overall, I’ll be keeping my targeted key stats very straightforward this week. I’ll be looking for strong ball strikers with lengthy drivers being a bonus, guys with accurate long irons, proficient Par 4/Par 5 scorers, and golfers with reliable flat sticks. Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Note: By Wednesday, you’ll be able to view a more detailed forecast for both Thursday & Friday by clicking this link.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Winds are prevalent earlier in the week but should calm down drastically by Thursday’s opening round. If the current forecast holds, and there are no rain delays in the second round, I could see a PM/AM draw having its advantages -- primarily due to avoiding the ~15 mph winds on Friday afternoon. It’s certainly not looking like a massive advantage, but worth keeping in mind (again, barring any forecast changes). Winds kick up across the weekend but nothing too wild -- 10-15 mph sustained with marginally stronger gusts.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 25%

  > Emphasis on Driving Distance | 5%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 10%

5. Proximity from 200+ Yards | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.