By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour wraps up its California swing this week with the Genesis Invitational, before crossing the country and beginning the Florida swing next week. After last year’s forced venue change due to the California wildfires, this tournament returns to its traditional home at Riviera Country Club, one of the most demanding and well-regarded stops on the PGA Tour calendar.

The Genesis Invitational will once again garner Signature Event status and features a condensed 72-player field packed with elite talent – 41 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world (via DataGolf) are in attendance. Despite the smaller field size, this is not a no-cut event. A 36-hole cut will be in place, with the top 50 players (plus ties) – along with anyone within 10 shots of the lead – advancing to the weekend. Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Riviera Country Club

Par 71 | 7,322 Yards

Greens: Poa Annua

*Difficulty Rank (Last 5 Years): 19th, 19th, 21st, 17th, 10th

*Recent Winners & Scores

2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17)

2023: Jon Rahm (-17)

2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19)

2021: Max Homa (-12)

2020: Adam Scott (-11)

*2025 results not included since this tournament was moved to Torrey Pines.

Aside from the forced venue change in 2025 due to the wildfires, Riviera Country Club has hosted this event every year since the early 1970s, giving us one of the deeper course-history samples on the PGA Tour. This is a longer Par 71 that stretches into the low-to-mid 7,300-yard range depending on pin locations, and it consistently plays as one of the tougher non-major venues on the schedule. Riviera ranked 19th in overall difficulty in 2024, with an average score just over par, and routinely suppresses birdie rates across the board.

Riviera draws frequent comparisons to Augusta National, and that’s not accidental. The 2008 redesign tilted the course further toward elite tee-to-green play, rewarding length, trajectory control, and high-end long-iron skill. Bombers do carry an advantage here, particularly those who can combine distance with solid ball control, though shorter hitters can still contend if they’re accurate and efficient with their long irons. Fairways are narrow and tree-lined, and fairway accuracy typically sits in the low-to-mid 50% range, which is well below TOUR average.

One of Riviera’s defining traits is its Kikuyu grass, which covers the fairways, rough, and surrounding areas. Kikuyu can be unpredictable and sticky, especially when wet, and can cause the course to play longer than its listed yardage. Lies in the rough can vary dramatically – sometimes sitting up cleanly, other times completely buried – which further favors players with strength and clubhead speed who can advance the ball effectively. While playable lies do exist, the clear edge remains staying in the fairway, where Kikuyu is far more manageable.

The layout itself adds to the challenge. Doglegs, strategically placed fairway bunkers, and quirky design features – including the bunker-in-the-middle green on the par-3 sixth and the tiny green on the driveable par-4 10th – force constant pivotal decision-making. Riviera is a true Par 71 with three par 5s, but only the opening par 5 consistently plays as a scoring opportunity, while the other two tend to be among the tougher holes on the course. The par 4s offer little relief, with eight of the 11 stretching beyond 430 yards and many demanding both length and accuracy off the tee.

Approach play is critical here. Greens in regulation rates at Riviera routinely run 5–10% below TOUR average, and past winners have almost universally ranked near the top of the field in GIR% for the week. When greens are missed – which they will be – around-the-green play becomes vital. Poa annua putting surfaces at Riviera are among the trickiest on TOUR, with elevated three-putt rates and fewer long birdie conversions than average. Putting from inside 10–15 feet and overall three-putt avoidance matter far more than pure spike putting weeks.

Scoring conditions remain demanding. While occasional outliers exist, winning scores here typically land in the mid-teens under par, and Riviera is very much a championship-style test rather than a birdie fest. Only eight players cracked double-digit-under-par scores in 2024. Course history also tends to hold more predictive value than usual, making Riviera one of the better spots on the schedule to give experienced performers a slight bump.

With all of that in mind, Riviera once again sets up as a complete test – favoring total driving, long-iron play, short-game competence, and patience – and it remains one of the most reliable barometers of elite all-around skill on the PGA Tour.

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Weather is mostly benign this week, with Thursday standing out as the one potential trouble spot. Based on the current Thursday forecast, winds start fairly light in the morning but steadily ramp up into the afternoon, pushing into the 15–20 mph range with higher gusts. There’s also a window for light to moderate rain from around 8 am through early-afternoon.

Friday looks ideal by comparison, with light, steady winds maxing out around 5 mph. The weekend remains playable as well with dry conditions and wind speeds expected to stay in the single digits. The very earliest tee times on Thursday should draw the most favorable conditions, but they will still run into windier and potentially wet weather toward the back-half of their rounds. That said, I won’t be factoring in tee times too much this week, but it is something to keep in mind.

The Genesis Invitational Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 25%

2. Strokes Gained: Short Game | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Total Driving | 15%

5. Par 4 Average | 10%

6. Proximity: 150-200 Yards | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Genesis Invitational DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Course Fit / Key Stats Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Genesis Invitational DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter/X @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.