PGA DFS Guide + DraftKings & FanDuel Cheat Sheet | TOUR Championship šŸ†

Everything you need to know about this week's PGA tournament!

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field šŸ†

We have arrived at the grand finale of the 2025 season! The top 30 golfers remaining in the FedEx Cup standings have punched their ticket to compete in the TOUR Championship, which is held at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia. The PGA has eliminated the starting strokes format for this tournament, which was in use from 2019 to 2024. If you remember, that format gave golfers who were closer to the top of the FEC standings a distinct advantage as they began the week well under par before even taking their first swing. As fans, DFS players, and bettors, some enjoyed that wrinkle in the format while others hated it. However, this is now a normal tournament where the best golfer, through 72 holes, will take the crown!

This will be another no-cut event, so, barring a withdrawal or disqualification, all golfers will play four rounds. Who will be crowned the 2025 PGA Champion and capture a $10 million payday (out of a $40 million total purse)? It’s about time to find out!

 

The Course Preview ⛳

East Lake Golf Club

Par 70 | 7,440 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

 

The TOUR Championship returns to East Lake Golf Club, a classic Donald Ross design in Atlanta that’s been a staple on the FedEx Cup circuit for years. The course underwent a significant renovation ahead of the 2024 event, and it’s back again this year as a Par 70 playing at a beefy 7,440 yards.

Several holes were reworked during the renovation. The Par 4 No. 14—previously changed to a par 5 in the recent renovation—is now back to being a long Par 4, measuring 530 yards. The Par 4 No. 8 was shortened into a drivable hole, while the iconic Par 3 No. 9 now stretches to 270 yards over water. These adjustments appear to be aimed at restoring more bite to the course, especially after Scottie Scheffler shot 20-under last year (30-under with starting strokes factored in).

Historically, winning scores in raw play have hovered between 8-under and 13-under, but in recent years, we have seen players go much lower. Starting strokes excluded, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele both fired 19-under in 2023, which likely helped prompt the 2024 tweaks. With the staggered start format now scrapped for 2025, we’re finally getting a true four-round shootout, though a birdie-fest is not expected.

East Lake has long featured firm Bermuda greens, traditional rough, bunkers, and water hazards that come into play on about eight holes. In the past, driving accuracy numbers were roughly 10% below TOUR average, while driving distance was about 10% higher. However, the recent widening of fairways should push accuracy rates up and encourage aggressive driver usage for those able to take on the added length.

Greens were also reshaped and expanded to reflect their original Ross design, which may have lessened the impact of short game performance. Last year, Scheffler gained almost all of his strokes through ball striking despite losing ground around the greens.

Statistically, strong tee-to-green players with a high ball flight and solid GIR rates should benefit most, especially if they can also get the putter going on the pure Bermuda surfaces. The course now feels somewhat akin to Pinehurst No. 2—another Ross design that was renovated to promote width off the tee and challenging green complexes. That US Open leaderboard from Pinehurst in 2024 (Rory 2nd, Cantlay 3rd, Xander 7th) aligns with many East Lake success stories.

Bottom line: This is still a second-shot golf course where elite drivers and high-end ball strikers tend to separate. With the course playing longer and firmer this year, scoring shouldn’t get out of control—but birdie makers with strong OTT metrics and recent form should have a clear edge. Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ā›…

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

 

āš–ļøWeather Verdict: Tee times are very condensed this week, with only 30 golfers in the field and less than three hours separating the earliest tee time (11:16 AM ET) from the latest (2:00 PM ET). So, since there is also no cut to worry about, weather should not factor into any DFS decision-making. Regardless, aside from some rain chances that come into play on the Friday and Saturday rounds, the forecast will provide mostly hassle-free golf weather with hardly any significant winds at all and only somewhat warm temps (by August in Atlanta standards).

 

Key Stats to Consider šŸ“Š

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: OTT + SG: App) | 30%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 20%

4. Total Driving | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

6. Proximity: 200+ Yards | 10%

TOUR Championship DFS Model Standouts šŸ…

Below are the top 30 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 30 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

TOUR Championship DFS Cheat SheetšŸ“‘

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

 

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.