By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour rolls into Cromwell, Connecticut where TPC River Highlands will play host to the Travelers Championship. Many top golfers would opt to take the week off following the U.S. Open but thanks to the Travelers Championship receiving elevated event status, we’ll see a ton of big names tee it up this week. This 156-player field features 32 of the top 40 ranked golfers in the world and 66 of the top 100. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and 2023 U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark are just a few names that headline this tournament. The 36-hole cut rule will be reverting back to normal so the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend.

I’m not sure about everyone else but, while it was a nice DFS week for myself (and hopefully many more in the LineStar crew), last week’s U.S. Open left a lot to be desired, both from a course perspective and an overall atmosphere perspective. It just didn’t feel like a Major week given the crowd involvement and how the course played. But I’ll be looking forward to this week given the highly talented field we’ll see competing at a longstanding course and event!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC River Highlands

Par 70 | 6,852 Yards

Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua Mixture

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 22nd, 22nd, 32nd, 19th, 25th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -2, -2, -4, -2, -2

Winning Score Last 5 Years: -19, -13, -19, -17, -17

First Tee: Thursday, June 22^nd at 6:45 a.m. ET

TPC River Highlands has hosted this event every year dating back to 1984 so it’ll be a great week to reference some course history. This is the shortest Par 70 course on the PGA Tour circuit which will give a large portion of the field the ability to compete for a high finish since bombers won’t necessarily have any significant advantage. Instead of elite distance, precision over power will be the name of the game. TPC River Highlands was redesigned by the famous Pete Dye back in 1982. As is the case on most Pete Dye designs, golfers will be visually intimidated off of the tee and forced into finding the correct landing zones in order to set up a more advantageous approach shot. There are a total of 69 bunkers that players will have to navigate, as well as four water hazards that come into play on a third of the holes. Topflight ball strikers should thrive on this layout.

The fairways at TPC River Highlands are average, if not a couple of yards above average, in width but they begin to narrow considerably around the 300-yard mark. Many players will opt to club down to avoid the rough, which isn’t too troublesome so long as a ball lands in the first cut. However, that rough gets thicker and more problematic the further away a golfer misses from the fairway. Golfers prioritize hitting these fairways and we can expect the average driving distance to be only around 285 yards with the field averaging a fairway accuracy percentage just shy of 70%, which is roughly 5% higher than the PGA Tour average. In 2022, a missed fairway on this course led to an average of 0.46 strokes lost per hole.

A sharp mid-iron game is vital on this course as approximately 45% of approach shots will come from a distance of 125-175 yards to the pin. The mixed bentgrass/poa annua green complexes average around 5,000 square feet, which is smaller than average by PGA Tour standards and will bring crafty around-the-green play into the equation since, inevitably, golfers will miss hitting greens in regulation. They are softer, more receptive greens that play more like pure bentgrass and will run at moderate speeds (11-12 on the stimpmeter). Since this is a traditional Par 70 setup, there are only two Par 5s available to go along with four Par 3s. However, there are still plenty of entertaining birdie holes scattered throughout the course but many of those scorable holes are high risk/high reward in nature. We can expect to see some wild scorecards filled with plenty of birdies and bogeys alike. This is sure to be another tightly contested, entertaining event that will likely come down to the wire with high-level competitors. Depending on the weather, we can usually expect the cut line to land close to two-under par with the eventual winner in the mid-to-upper teens under par. Given how stacked this year’s Travelers Championship field is, a 20-under winning score would also not be surprising in the slightest! Best of luck this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Sustained winds should stay under or around 10 mph all day, however, gusts could touch 20+ mph throughout the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain in the afternoon.

Friday: Similar to Thursday with sustained winds under or around 10 mph all day. Some 20+ mph gusts are expected as well, but not until the late morning hours. Chanc for some light rain throughout the day as well.

Weekend: More >10 mph sustained winds with less gusty conditions overall, compared to the first two rounds. Both days will also have some possible rain in the forecast.

⚖️Weather Verdict: If you’re really looking for a very, very slight advantage, the PM/AM wave looks to have the better end of the weather draw due to the extremely calm winds expected in the early Friday morning hours. I wouldn’t force any weather-specific plays into DFS decision-making, but perhaps use it as a tiebreaker if you’re deciding between two golfers in different waves -- advantage to the PM/AM guy. Rain could be prevalent and may lead to some sort of stoppage in play, but no rounds are currently expected to be washouts.

Travelers Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 25%

2. Par 4 Average | 25%

3. Birdie or Better % | 25%

4. Proximity 125-175 Yards (Mid-Iron Accuracy) | 10%

5. Strokes Gained: Around the Greens | 10%

6. Good Drive Percentage | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Travelers Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Travelers Championship DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.