PGA DFS Guide + DraftKings & FanDuel Cheat Sheet | Valero Texas Open ⛳

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour prepares to tee it up at TPC San Antonio for the 2023 Valero Texas Open. With The Masters just one week away, it is no surprise that this field isn’t packed to the brim with star power. However, plenty of talented golfers are still looking to fine-tune their game ahead of next week’s Major, and 24 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be on site this week. This field of 144 players will abide by the traditional cut rule, so after Friday’s round the top 65 players (including ties) will move on to play the weekend. With The Masters right around the corner, MLB starting up on Thursday, March Madness down to its Final Four teams, and several other sports still in full swing, I won’t be surprised if this tournament goes overlooked across the DFS landscape. But if you’re looking to stay in mid-season form yourself when it comes to PGA DFS, stay on the ball and go crush it this week!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

Par 72 | 7,438 Yards

Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis)

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 18th, 15th, 28th, 12th, 10th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: -1, +2, -1, +1, E

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) has hosted this event every year since 2010. This is a Par 72 set-up that extends 7,438 yards and it plays every bit of that length. This is one of the more demanding courses on TOUR and it regularly ranks inside the top 15 to 20 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour each year. It’s not uncommon to see a single-digit score under par win here. The oak tree-lined fairways are narrow and they are surrounded by some fairly troublesome rough. Other course hazards include native areas that feature desert areas, thick brush, rocks, and trees. There are also 58 bunkers scattered throughout the course, however, water will come into play on just three holes. The Bermuda grass greens (overseeded with poa trivialis) can challenge golfers; many of the green complexes consist of steep drop-offs and problematic undulations. The greens are average in size and typically run moderately fast (11.5-12 on the stimpmeter), though don’t be surprised if they look to speed things up in order to provide a similar challenge to Augusta National next week. Golfers will need to play well around these greens if they wish to post a high-end finish come Sunday.

This course is relatively wide open so the wind will play a significant factor and it is something we must monitor closely this week. In the past when wind conditions have kicked up here, there has been upwards of a four-stroke scoring difference between the morning and afternoon waves. Some golfers have even just straight-up withdrawn from the tournament due to the winds. It really is the one factor that most impacts how tough TPC San Antonio will play so keep an eye on that forecast! Best of luck this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

For anyone new to PGA DFS, we take a look at the weather to see if there is an advantage for golfers either teeing up Thursday morning/Friday afternoon (AM/PM wave) or for the guys starting their rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning (PM/AM wave). Your top priority in PGA DFS is to get 6-out-of-6 golfers in your lineups through the cut line and into the weekend – from there, anything can happen! If there is an edge to be had for either wave, it is important to take advantage!

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

⚖️Weather Verdict: The sustained wind speeds look to be manageable this week since they’ll hang mostly around 8-12 mph. However, the wind gusts could certainly cause some havoc. Gusts will be at their strongest during the morning hours of the first two rounds, upwards of 25+ mph. The Friday PM wave will get a bit of a reprieve from those gusts so there could be a slight edge given to the AM/PM tee time draw. That being said, I wouldn’t let the current forecast impact my DFS decision-making too much but I also wouldn’t stop anyone from slightly favoring golfers who get a late tee time on Friday.

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 15%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

Valero Texas Open Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 20 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 20 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as things like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (in relation to the field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed above in this newsletter with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Valero Texas Open DFS Cheat Sheet 📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the direct image link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.