By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour prepares to tee it up at TPC San Antonio for the 2024 Valero Texas Open. With The Masters just one week away, it is no surprise that this field isn’t packed to the brim with star power. However, more talent will be on site for this tournament than in years past as many top players look to fine-tune their game or attempt to qualify for next week’s Major. Eleven of the top 25 and 48 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be throwing their hats into the ring this week. This full field of 156 players will abide by the traditional cut rule, so after Friday’s round, the top 65 players (including ties) will move on to play the weekend. With The Masters right around the corner, MLB back in action, March Madness down to its Final Four teams, NBA nearing the playoffs, and several other sports still in full swing, I won’t be surprised if this tournament goes overlooked across the DFS landscape. But if you’re looking to stay in mid-season form yourself, stay on the ball and go crush it this week!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

Par 72 | 7,435 Yards

Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis)

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 17th, 18th, 15th, 28th, 12th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: E, -1, +2, -1, +1

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) has hosted this event every year since 2010. This is a Par 72 set-up that extends 7,435 yards and it plays every bit of that length. This is one of the more demanding courses on TOUR and it regularly ranks inside the top 15 to 20 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour each year. While it hasn’t happened since 2014, it wouldn’t be unheard of to see a single-digit score under par win here. The oak tree-lined fairways are narrow and they are surrounded by some fairly troublesome rough. Other course hazards include native areas that feature desert areas, thick brush, rocks, and trees. There are also 58 bunkers scattered throughout the course, however, water will only come into play on three holes. The Bermuda grass greens (overseeded with poa trivialis) can challenge golfers; many of the green complexes consist of steep drop-offs and problematic undulations. The greens are average in size and typically run moderately fast (11.5-12 on the stimpmeter), though don’t be surprised if they look to speed things up in order to provide a similar challenge to Augusta National next week. Golfers will need to play well around these greens if they wish to post a high-end finish come Sunday.

This course is relatively wide open so the wind can play a significant factor and it is something we must monitor closely this week. In the past when wind conditions have kicked up here at different parts of the day, there has been upwards of a four-stroke scoring difference between the morning and afternoon waves. Some golfers have even just straight-up withdrawn from the tournament due to the winds. It really is the one factor that most impacts how tough TPC San Antonio will play so keep an eye on that forecast! Best of luck this week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

(Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecast)

Thursday: Calm conditions in the morning with < 5 mph winds. Things pick up a bit around midday, but sustained winds will still only hang around 10 mph with the occasional 15+ mph gusts. Plenty of sunshine with temps in the 70s and low-80s most of the day.

Friday: 10 mph sustained winds to begin the day with some problematic gusts upwards of 25+ mph. Winds gradually climb throughout the day, up to around 15 mph sustained in the afternoon with more 25+ mph gusts. Similar to Thursday, there will be sunny skies and warm Springtime temps.

Weekend: Saturday looks to be the windiest round of the week with 15 mph sustained winds all day with gusts in the 30 mph range. It’ll also be cloudy with a low-end chance for some rain, but nothing to worry about as far as any sort of lengthy stoppage goes. Sunday will feature < 10 mph winds all day and should provide golfers with near-ideal conditions for the final round.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Things may end up evening out since the Thursday AM guys will get to start their rounds in essentially zero winds, but if we’re looking at the larger scope, the PM/AM wave may benefit from the best overall conditions over the first two rounds. It’s far from a huge advantage, but it’s worth giving PM/AM golfers a slight bump, and perhaps even worth taking some shots on “PM/AM only” lineup builds.

2024 Valero Texas Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (SG: App + SG: OTT) | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 20%

3. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

4. Strokes Gained: Around the Green | 10%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

6. Proximity from the Rough | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Valero Texas Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average fantasy points over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Valero Texas Open DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code:

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.