By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour prepares to tee it up at TPC San Antonio for the 2025 Valero Texas Open. With The Masters just one week away, it is no surprise that this field isn’t filled to the brim with star power. However, more talent will be on site for this tournament than in many years past as a number of top players look to fine-tune their game or attempt to qualify for next week’s Major at Augusta National. Eight of the top 25 and 42 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers will be throwing their hats into the ring this week. This full field of 144 players will abide by the traditional cut rule, so after Friday’s round, the top 65 golfers (including ties) will move on to play the weekend. With The Masters right around the corner, MLB back in action, March Madness down to its Final Four teams, NBA nearing the playoffs, and several other sports still in full swing, I won’t be surprised if this tournament goes overlooked across the DFS landscape. But if you’re looking to stay in mid-season form yourself, stay on the ball and go chase some big PGA wins this week!

The Course Preview ⛳

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

Par 72 | 7,435 Yards

Greens: Bermuda (Overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis)

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 7th, 17th, 18th, 15th, 28th

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +1, E, -1, +2, -1

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) has hosted this event annually since 2010 and remains one of the tougher par 72 setups on TOUR. The course stretches out to 7,435 yards and plays every bit of that length, with narrow, tree-lined fairways and Texas brush lining many holes. It’s an exposed course, meaning wind is a constant factor and has often led to significant scoring disparities between the morning and afternoon waves. Some players have even withdrawn mid-tournament due to unplayable wind conditions, making weather important to monitor this week. Over the last four years, only 19 players have finished in the double-digits under par at this tournament, including only four last year.

This Greg Norman design includes four par 5s, though three are near 600 yards and won’t be automatic birdie chances. Driving accuracy tends to be well below the TOUR average (48.6% Driving Accuracy in 2024, around 10% below average), but errant tee shots aren’t always a death sentence due to the course’s relatively open design in spots. Past winners have had varying success off the tee—some, like Corey Conners (who won here twice), dominated with elite ball-striking, while others, like Andrew Landry and Jordan Spieth, leaned more on their approach play and short game to get the job done. Overall, players gaining strokes on approach tend to have the best shot at success.

The overseeded greens are another challenge, featuring tricky undulations and steep run-offs. Greens in Regulation percentages at TPC San Antonio trend well below the TOUR average (56.5% GIR% in 2024, 9.4% below average), making approach play and putting prowess key stats to focus on. Scrambling tends to be more of a neutral factor, as past winners have gained more through ball-striking and timely putting than short-game heroics.

Expect long irons to be heavily tested. The course features four par 3s—two of which play well over 200 yards—and five par 4s measuring over 440 yards. This makes proximity from 175+ yards an important metric to key in on as well.

Scoring here has varied depending on conditions. When the wind has stayed down, we’ve seen winning scores reach 20-under (as was the case in 2019 and 2024). However, tougher conditions have produced winning scores closer to 12-to-15-under, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see a single-digit under-par score take the title if the wind really kicks up.

All in all, this course rewards precise iron play and the ability to capitalize on key scoring holes while avoiding big mistakes. Ball-strikers with a strong long-iron game and a capable putter should be in contention come Sunday. Let’s head into Masters week on a high note and crush it at the Valero!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the image above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

Note: By Wednesday, you’ll be able to view a more detailed forecast for both Thursday & Friday by clicking this link.

⚖️Weather Verdict: The most problematic winds aren’t expected to arrive until the weekend, after the cut line has already been set. Thursday will be the calmest day of the week, though Thursday AM gusts may play a factor before winds/gusts settle in the late morning. Friday should consistently hover around 10-15 mph sustained winds with 20 mph gusts throughout the day. Unless the forecast changes drastically, I’m not seeing a huge advantage, but the PM/AM tee times do look to get the slightly better end of the draw. I’d use this as a tiebreaker (if you’re deciding between two golfers in different waves) rather than taking a full-on “wave stack” approach. As always, check the latest forecast as we get closer to Thursday morning by clicking the forecast image above!

Valero Texas Open Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Approach | 25%

2. Birdie or Better Percentage | 20%

3. Par 4 Average | 15%

4. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity: 175+ Yards) | 10%

5. Par 5 Average | 10%

6. Strokes Gained: Putting | 10%

7. Good Drive Percentage | 10%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Valero Texas Open DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Valero Texas Open DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.