By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour stays in the Sunshine State for one final week as golfers prepare to tee it up at The Valspar Championship which is held in Palm Harbor, FL at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course). This will be a full-field event with 156 players on-site, and the typical 36-hole cut rule will be in play (top 65 & ties play the weekend). This isn’t a super-loaded field, especially if we’re stacking it up to the elite PLAYERS Championship field from last week, but we’ll still have plenty of talent to choose from with 53 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers competing. Headlining this field are well-known names like Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, and Justin Thomas. The Masters Tournament is only three weeks away, so this week will be an excellent opportunity for golfers to fine-tune their form as we near the first official Major of the season! This is also a prime chance for certain golfers who are not currently eligible to play in this year’s Masters to move into a qualifying position to compete!

The Course Preview ⛳

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Par 71 | 7,340 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Type: Parkland

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 8th, 9th, 29th, 20th, 6th

Winning Score Last 5 Years: -12, -10, -17, -17, -8

Cut Line Last 5 Years: E, +1, -3, -1, +1

Aside from 2020 when the event was canceled, Copperhead has hosted this tournament every year since 2000. This is a demanding Par 71 set-up that extends 7,340 yards on the scorecard. The five long Par 3s are a unique aspect of this course, all of which check in at over 195 yards. To put it succinctly, Copperhead plays long and provides many challenges which can make scoring quite difficult, especially if windy conditions come into play (which is looking like a certainty this week). It is not uncommon for this course to rank inside the top 10 in terms of course difficulty in any given year, and the winning score for this tournament has not gone lower than 10-under par in six of the last ten years. The scoring average at the Valspar Championship in 2024 was +0.41 over par. Golfers will need to do the majority of their scoring on the four Par 5s and simply fight to survive the rest of the course at even par. There is an infamous three-hole stretch at Copperhead, which spans holes No. 16, 17, and 18. It is appropriately dubbed “The Snake Pit” and it is the furthest thing from a cakewalk. How golfers manage to navigate those three holes will have a significant impact on the final leaderboard.

Personally speaking, these tougher tracks are my favorite types of courses to watch the professionals compete on. The pros should be in for a fairly grueling battle this week -- mostly due to the general tough nature of Copperhead itself, but also due to windy conditions that are expected to come into play on Thursday and Friday; more on those winds in the weather section below but you will definitely want to pay attention to the forecast this week as there may be a massive tee time advantage developing for one of the waves.

Though Copperhead plays long, accuracy is more important than off-the-tee distance here; this is because there are several doglegged hole layouts, tight fairways which are eight yards narrower than the PGA Tour average, many elevation changes, thick rough, 70+ bunkers in play, and water, which comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes.

For the majority of the holes at Copperhead, golfers will all end up targeting the same general landing zones when teeing off so there is no real need to rank bombers over the shorter hitters. The average driving distance on this course was 279 yards in 2024, which is over 13 yards shorter than the PGA Tour average. Even with golfers prioritizing fairway accuracy over distance, only 53.3% of fairways were hit at Copperhead last season -- about 5% below average. Since many golfers will be clubbing down off of the tee, roughly one-third of approach shots will end up coming from the 175-200-yard range. When you also factor in those four Par 3s that are all essentially 200+ yards in length, it’s easy to see how accurate long iron play can pay dividends here. Any regular readers of this newsletter know I tend to weigh either SG: Approach or SG: Ball Striking very heavily most weeks. I’ll be switching that up to focus on golfers who simply excel tee-to-green this week. I’ll also be targeting guys who routinely take advantage of Par 5s and those who rank out well in terms of bogey avoidance. On many of these holes, even par is going to feel like a birdie to these golfers and any strokes that are lost via bogeys will be challenging to gain back. This one should get interesting so let’s go ahead and jump into a quick look at the impactful forecast, key stats to focus on, golfers who stand out in my personal DFS model, and my DFS cheat sheet for the week! Best of luck!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Assuming the current forecast holds, this is looking like one of the more notable wave advantages we’ve seen in quite some time. With winds being at their strongest (15-20 mph sustained & upwards of 30 mph gusts) on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, the clear advantage goes to the AM/PM wave — and the earlier golfers are out there on Thursday morning, the better, because the troublesome winds look to arrive around 11 AM. This is just a personal preference but, as a rough estimate, I’ll likely be looking to have AM/PM golfers make up roughly 75% of my player pool and I’ll definitely be stacking that wave exclusively in some lineups. I’d also be hard-pressed to love any PM/AM golfer as a cash-safe play. The good news is that conditions look nearly perfect for the weekend. Keep an eye on the forecast for any changes!

Valspar Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 10%

6. Par 3 Average | 5%

7. Driving Accuracy | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Valspar Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Key Stat Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Valspar Championship DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.