By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Tournament & Field 🏆

The PGA Tour remains in the Sunshine State for one final week as golfers head to Palm Harbor, Florida to tee it up at The Valspar Championship hosted at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course). We’ve already seen a handful of withdrawals, bringing the field size down to roughly 130–135 players, and the standard 36-hole cut rule will be in play with the top 65 players and ties advancing to the weekend.

This isn’t the strongest field, especially if we’re stacking it up against last week’s loaded PLAYERS Championship, but there are still plenty of recognizable names in the mix, including 40 of the world’s top 100 ranked golfers. With The Masters just three weeks away, this event presents a great opportunity for players to fine-tune their form ahead of the first Major of the season. It also gives those currently outside the qualification bubble a chance to make a late push into the field at Augusta.

Best of luck!

The Course Preview ⛳

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Par 71 | 7,340 Yards

Greens: Bermuda

Course Type: Parkland

Course Difficulty Last 5 Years: 6th, 8th, 9th, 29th, 20th

Winning Score Last 5 Years: -11, -12, -10, -17, -17

Cut Line Last 5 Years: +2, E, +1, -3, -1

Aside from 2020 when the event was canceled, Copperhead has hosted this tournament every year since 2000. It’s worth noting that the course underwent renovations to the greens, fairways, and select bunkers after 2015, and since then, it has generally played even tougher in its current form, including ranking as one of the top-10 toughest courses in each of the last three seasons. This is a demanding Par 71 set-up that stretches to 7,340 yards. The five long Par 3s are a unique feature here, all measuring 195+ yards, which immediately puts an emphasis on long iron play. In general, Copperhead plays longer than its yardage suggests and presents a steady grind from start to finish, especially when wind becomes a factor.

The winning score at this tournament has failed to reach better than 10-under par in five of the last ten years. The last couple of seasons have returned to that tougher standard, with the winner settling in at 11-under (Viktor Hovland, 2025) and 12-under (Peter Malnati, 2024). While golfers will still need to take advantage of the four Par 5s, these are not complete pushover holes and typically require three quality shots to even generate a legitimate birdie look.

There is an infamous three-hole closing stretch at Copperhead spanning holes No. 16, 17, and 18, known as “The Snake Pit.” It is one of the most difficult finishing stretches on the PGA Tour, and how golfers navigate those three holes will have a major impact on the final leaderboard.

Personally speaking, these tougher tracks are my favorite types of courses to watch the professionals compete on. The pros should be in for a grueling test this week, not only due to the natural difficulty of Copperhead, but also because of the expected wind conditions on Thursday and Friday. More on that in the weather section below.

Though Copperhead plays long, accuracy and positioning off the tee are more important than pure distance. This is a tree-lined, positional course with several doglegs, elevation changes, thick rough, 70+ bunkers, and water in play on 11 holes. Fairways are about seven yards narrower than the PGA Tour average, and with the rough grown up in recent years, missing the fairway can quickly force golfers into more conservative layups.

Most players will be targeting similar landing zones off the tee, so there isn’t much incentive to prioritize bombers over shorter, more accurate players. The average driving distance here was just 279 yards in 2025, which is well below the Tour average by about 15 yards. Even with that conservative approach, only 54.7% of fairways were hit last season, about 6% below average.

With players frequently clubbing down, roughly one-third of approach shots will come from the 175–200 yard range, with another large chunk coming from 200+ yards. With that in mind, long iron play will be absolutely critical. Greens here are on the smaller side and difficult to hit, with GIR rates typically falling ~10% below the Tour average, so strong approach play and scrambling ability will both carry added importance.

As usual, I tend to weigh SG: Approach or SG: Ball Striking heavily, but this week I’ll shift that focus slightly toward well-rounded tee-to-green players. I’ll also be targeting golfers who can capitalize on Par 5 opportunities and those who excel in bogey avoidance. On many holes, even par will feel like a birdie, especially around The Snake Pit, and any mistakes can be difficult to recover from.

One final note from a DFS perspective: this event has produced its fair share of longshot winners over the years, largely due to the volatility on and around these greens. While strong ball striking remains the foundation, golfers who can spike with the putter on Bermuda surfaces can quickly separate from the field.

This one should get interesting, so let’s go ahead and jump into a quick look at the forecast, key stats, golfers who stand out in my personal DFS model, and this week’s DFS cheat sheet for the week!

Weather & Tee Times ⛅

Click the images above to view the most up-to-date forecasts.

⚖️Weather Verdict: Weather should be fairly steady through the first two rounds with winds generally sitting around 10–15 mph and occasional gusts pushing into the low-to-mid 20s, especially in the mornings. Conditions don’t appear to meaningfully favor one side of the draw, as winds remain fairly consistent from morning to afternoon on both Thursday and Friday.

The weekend looks much calmer with winds dropping into the 5–10 mph range, so scoring conditions should ease a bit. Overall, this does not project as a week where weather creates a significant wave advantage.

Valspar Championship Tee Times

Key Stats to Consider 📊

Each key stat is paired with a weighted percentage (based on stat importance) for DFS model purposes.

1. Strokes Gained: Tee to Green | 35%

2. Par 4 Average | 15%

3. Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage | 15%

4. Bogey Avoidance | 15%

5. Long Iron Accuracy (Proximity 175+ Yards) | 10%

6. Par 3 Average | 5%

7. Driving Accuracy | 5%

PGA Tour Stats Page

Valspar Championship DFS Model Standouts 🏅

Below are the top 25 ranked golfers in both my overall model and my key stats model. Below that are the top 25 leaders in average finishing position over the last five and last ten starts. The players ranked on these lists do not necessarily mean they are the top golfers I’m targeting for this week's event, but many of these guys should no doubt be favorable DFS options.

Overall Model Rank: A golfer’s ranking (within the current field) in my personal DFS model, which weighs all of the key stats listed above in this newsletter, as well as factors like course history, recent form, recent average fantasy scoring results, and odds to win.

Course Fit / Key Stats Rank: Provides a golfer’s overall rank (within the current field) in my "key stats only" model, which considers only the key stats listed in the section above with the specified percentage weights allocated towards each statistic.

Valspar Championship DFS Cheat Sheet📑

Click the Cheat Sheet above for the higher-quality direct image link

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

That will do it for our PGA preview! Best of luck this week and, once again, feel free to hit me up in the LineStar chat or on Twitter/X @Ryan_Humphries with any questions.